Hi folks. Here's my interpretation of how I see the midnight outputs and what they mean for us on the surface over the next 10-14 days.
All models illustrate a Low pressure area to the West of the UK. In a basically warm Southerly flow occasional troughs moving North bring showers or outbreaks of heavy rain at times across many districts. One such trough will clear NE arts this morning with spell of 36-48hrs of sunshine and showers then for many Northern areas, some heavy with thunder. The South will see only scattered showers with many parts staying dry, bright and warm. Over the weekend a plume of unusually hot air will lie over the near Continent and the cooler air in association with the Low pressure to the West will engage this hot air and develop a potentially explosive stormy spell across more SE areas of the UK at the weekend. The extent NW varies between models but it is a safe bet that the SE at least will see some heavy thunderstorms and torrential rain for a time over the weekend before fresher air moves in again from the SW.
Looking forward into next week GFS shows a cooler and breezier phase early in the week with a sunshine and shower mix before the South and East become largely dry and somewhat warmer again as winds back from West to a more Southerly point. This could then spawn another thundery rain spell across the East and SE as further troughs push up against the warm air to the East, a process that continues off and on for the rest of the run. Overall temperatures would be close to average but the South and East could continue to see warm and humid conditions continue at times.
The GFS Ensembles shows fairly good consistency for cooler and more average conditions as we move into early August but there is also a strong signal for more variability in temperatures for more Southern and especially SE areas as there are some members showing some warmer output when temperatures rise above average at times. Rainfall is prevalent for all areas at times, most prolific in the North but some in the SE too as thundery troughs dislodge each warm phase.
The Jet Stream shows the flow blowing across the Atlantic towards the UK before being steered North around the European High block for some considerable time to come before hints of the High relaxing over Europe late in the output disintegrates the flow over Europe as the High relaxes somewhat and edges South.
UKMO today shows a SW flow across the UK early next week with Low pressure close to NW Britain. It will stay relatively warm with a mix of sunshine and showers across the UK, heavy at times in the North with some reasonable amounts of sunshine and drier conditions in the South and East.
GEM today shows the weather heating up across the UK next week as a ridge extends North from Europe close to Eastern Britain sucking hot and humid conditions North across the UK later in the week before thunderstorms affect the SW later spreading slowly NE.
NAVGEM shows a showery period continuing next week as low pressure continues to position itself close to Northern or NW Britain. Many Southern and eastern areas would see a lot of dry weather from this setup and it would feel warm under the SW drift. As the low drifts closer in at the end of the run showers could well become rather more widespread but still with sunny intervals in between.
ECM today shows a windy and wet spell towards midweek as a small but vigorous depression crosses the UK at that time. Behind this the cold front slides slowly SE over the SE triggering some thundery rainfall again as warm air slides past the SE on Thursday and Friday. The weekend then looks like a showery affair with sunny spells in between and temperatures lower but still comfortable for early August.
In Summary today the changeable and sometimes unsettled period continues with rain at times for all. Amounts will be very variable due to the showery nature of the weather. There will still be a good deal of dry and bright weather between the rain events and temperatures will often be on the warm side of average for many and considerably so in the SE at times though here thunderstorms could occur every now and again as the hot European air engages with cooler Atlantic winds.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset