Agree Kev, good post

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28 degree's for the average northerner is like 32 for a southerner. Heat to a certain degree is relative to the person experiencing it, but once you start hitting upper 30's then heat starts getting hot for everybody.

Totally agree, we get many summer days over 30c here but the best summer weather here for getting out and doing things and enjoying is when it is between 25c - 28c. Anything much over say 34c and unless you are right on the coast is uncomfortable.

 

Amazes me how many on here dislike the heat. You have to wonder why Med beach holidays are so popular when apparently all northerners have a melting point of 28C ;)

I'm not saying I'd be comfortable in 40C heat but I'd love to experience it in the UK. Just like I'd love to experience proper cold, like -40C (might have to leave the uk for that one!)

Anyway dragging myself back on topic, the GFS 00z has backed away with the 20c isotherm only just making it, and 21c clipping the far SE

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1502.gif 

A very brief affair though and nothing above 31c.

Still it wil be nice to see some warmth return albeit briefly.

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Good morning folks. Here is the report from the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this morning Saturday July 27th 2013.

The General Situation. All models show low pressure slow moving to the SW of the British Isles with a warm and thundery plume of air moving NE close to SE England. A thundery Low within this airmass will move North across the East of the UK today and tonight with thundery rain expanding and increasing in intensity with some torrential bursts in places later, chiefly but not exclusively towards the East. The Low as it moves further North over Britain opens the door to cooler and fresher SW to West winds which then blow over most areas through the period Sunday to Tuesday with heavy and thundery showers likely in the North, West and SW at times. By Wednesday a new Low pressure develops to the West and pulls a trough North across Britain with rain in tow and followed by warmer and more humid weather again to the South and SE. By the end of the week a further thundery plume looks likely to move NNE across Central Southern and Eastern areas once more. 

GFS then shows this thundery plume being pushed away East and allowing a return to quite slack pressure patterns with a generally showery weather type and temperatures much closer to average. This cooler and showery theme lasts some considerable time with the Westerly winds increasing later in the run as a more sustained Westerly feed in association with Low pressure near the North of the UK feeds rain at times in from off the Atlantic for all.

The GFS Ensembles show a short but positive warm up again later in the week following the earlier cooler and showery phase. It's relatively short-lived though and cooler Atlantic based weather sets in proper from next weekend with average temperatures and rain at times for all.

The Jet Stream continues to dip South to Biscay having crossed the Atlantic and then forced NE across the UK  and NE to Scandinavia around the hot plume to the SE. In the second half of the run the plume relaxes South and allows the flow to blow more direct West to East over the UK and on through Europe in Week 2.

UKMO today shows a very warm phase for 24-48hrs from Wednesday before Low pressure from the SW displaces it away East in preference to cooler and more changeable conditions by next weekend preceded by a thundery spell again, especially in the East.

GEM also shows a similar version of this only under slacker pressure patterns which would likely mean a slower breakdown to cooler temperatures which eventually arrive for all at the end of this run with cooler and showery conditions to take us into week 2.

NAVGEM also shows a warmer phase at the end of the working week with a cold front crossing East by the weekend with a spell of thundery rain followed by fresher conditions by next weekend when sunshine and showers look likely.

ECM dishes up another very thundery warm and humid spell of weather to conclude the coming working week, most prolific in the South and east as warm plumes continue to be wafted NNE across the South and East. The north and west would see largely sunshine and showers while the South and East remain at risk of heavy and thundery spells of rain or storms before something a little cooler and fresher tries to extend East painfully slowly over the weekend and the start of the new week.

In Summary the weather remains quite changeable. In general we are governed by the joint effects of low pressure to the West of the UK and hot air to the East and SE. Neither seems to want to give way to any meaningful degree. The net result is the North and West see spells of sunshine and showers and close to average temperatures while the South and more especially the SE come under attack from thundery plumes moving NNE across these areas periodically as the cooler air in the west bumps into it. There is the potential for another quite marked thundery spell here towards the end of next week with quite high temperatures beforehand. The cooler air is once more shown to win the fight longer term on today's output but at this range and with such a sustained hot pool of air over Europe the status quo of this pattern could continue for some considerable time to come.

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There's a difference between living with heat, on a daily basis, and simply relaxing on a beach or by the pool on the Costa Del Sol. British houses are designed to retain heat, the London Underground has no aircon at all. All make things feel horribly hot, even if the actual temperature is nothing special.

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Support remains in place for a run of 2-3 hot days with the potential for very hot conditions on at least one of those.

Amazingly the LP has trended even further west on the ECM output. GFS hasn't shifted much though, but does align the jet well enough to have the 20°C 850's isotherm touching the far S then SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Support is really building on the GEFS with a couple getting close to the ECM-scale of events.

One notable change from ECM is that energy near Spain doesn't develop as much as on previous runs. This reduces the intensity of the plume a bit, but also means that we don't receive a notable area of LP from the SW or S - instead we get a very shallow feature at 168h which could mean some homegrown fun.

Fascinating runs of late

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Very good 0z runs showing very hot weather with uppers up to 21C meaning around 35-37C likely on Friday and 33-35C on Thursday for here.  They undercook the temps by 3-4C but seeing 37C right on the coast nearest to UK often the outcome temps for inland SE areas.  Last Monday was around 33-35C on that region coast and I got the 35C.  At least this run show more near nationwide heatwave than just SE as the 30C move further north into Yorkshire areas. Night time temps would be very interesting as the 21C uppers are there and probably give low 20's minimums.  Cooled off by the weekend with mid to high 20's as HP moving in. 

This is very interesting one and make an interesting weather data temps.

ECM had been very persistant on those heat outlook for a long while which at first we weren't sure if we will tap into this serious heat and I always know that 33.5C max last Monday is not the hottest day of the year and not done over yet.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

HOT

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Looks very good, no real end in sight for summer. 

Approaching 30C even here. Looks like I could get another shot at cracking the magic three-oh. Max so far this year 29.2C.

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Let hope the further runs to bring more heat nationwide into Ireland and Scotland so that give additional hot days for the south as few days ago runs was showing 1 day heat over the SE, now is increased to 3 days and 1 day up over your area.  Hoping for extension in to the weekend when many of us are off and give more booming trade in tourist industry.

Here we go again?....

Nice post there James.

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The 06z looks like pushing the plume a bit further east, so not quite as exciting for the UK temp-wise...

And in the meantime.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/ecm.htm

ECM shows a bit of a roasting.

 

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Indeed it is and the funny thing is I would usually be in Denia ( Costa Blanca ) next week for a two week holiday and I've seen the BBC give temps of 47*c

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Some very interesting output for the coming week ahead a bit of everything it would seem and very plumey from mid week onwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

 

 

 

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No change on 06z and very hot weather next week remain the same before cooling off at the weekend with HP building from the south.

Still a brief glance of heat after midweek on the 06z GFS. Temps around 30c for some. Gone 48 hours later

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6z = gash. 0z and 12z I'll take notice of

I haven't taken much notice of GFS at all for months. It seems to be useless more often than not.

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And if high pressure moves back in from the south then it's a case of rinse and repeat.

 

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A seriously hot day for the SE on Saturday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

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