P Gibbs

Potential for some torrential rain Saturday

Temps for the weekend down to 23 c

They did a lot and not only me notice the temps being underdoing is Doc who pointed out how Aberdeen been warmer than forecast up to 9C difference.

To make matter worse the latest forecast seem to forgot that Saturday will be a very warm day that backed by the models and latest GFS going for 27C on Saturday which could scrape 28C to 30C locally here.  They are in the hurry to bring the rain in by Sat morning so very progressive forecast.  I know it will rain but not in the morning of Saturday so 3rd world forecsting once again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4817.png

Forecast Summary

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  Saturday

  
  

  Increasing cloud is expected to bring rain at times to much of the region from late morning onwards. Some heavy, thundery rain is also likely to develop in places later.

  
  

Nothing what the models had been showing high temps then thunderstorms overnight Sat while they are obsessed and in the hurry to bring it earlier to late morning.  More like UK standard general rain from that wording.

How bad was last nights Beeb forscast for today, according to P Gibbs ( Friday 22:30 ) it should be dull and raining IMBY, the radar is clear apart from the extreme SE. We have sunny spells and 20c

Very very poor

What is going on

Has the heavy rain completely missed or is the current radar just the first lot?

I been banging about them kept putting very low temps and wet all day and also telling people if you have any events outdoor to cancel it because of the rain.  If this was in the USA they will get lot of lawsuits against them for ruining their plans.

The models had been showing decent very warm Sat at 27C since last weekend and that mean 7 - 0 score to the Media forecasts.  Temps now 21.5C and that only 9.50am so 27C is the likely results by early afternoon.

With next week heatwave coming up the media/bbc forecasts will be ignored and just look at the models and look outside all the time.

From what I read from the models output is coming in the evening and overnight one and there no such rain during the day that why 27C is the max by 6pm that had been there since last weekend models run.

The BBC hourly forecasts on the web are usually a good view - for entertainment purposes today.

At 8am they were showing heavy rain by 11am for here. That's now been adjusted to a light shower. Neither looks likely at present.

Fww, they now have heavy rain at 4pm. As Gary said in the storm thread, our best hope is developments over Brest as the stuff over more mainland France will miss here

Margaret Emerson (MetO) video forecast: "Plenty of thunder mixed in"

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

very warm 23 virtually clear skies

I really am annoyed with the Beeb I actually got sucked in by their forecast and cancelled a round of golf

D Bett

Heavy rain this weekend

Rain coming from the South " that is why it is so hard to forecast" why?

Map shows me at 21c , waved that goodbye a while ago

effffffffing rubbish

Well to be fair we know that the ppn models are not as good at convective systems as they are dynamic frontal types, so the statement is partially true.
Forecasts on frontal arrival from the SW for instance should be treated with more confidence than the development of plume/MCS type systems from the SSE. It's not too difficult to understand but a forecast has to be made nethertheless and years of reading and learning on these forums should give us the knowledge to know that.

You should had gone ahead with it if you follow the models.  Iver now recording 29.1C and 30C is possible so that 9C warmer than forecast and record range for nearly 10C hotter than forecast.

As it was only 12 hours before the round I didnt expect it to be soooooooooooooooooo wrong

Understand that Neil but we are talking just 7 hours before rain was due to hit................there was nothing ????

looking at current radar it looks like it is still coming or it might all fizzle out. got to agree to not get a forecast fairly accurate a few hours out is poor.  time to look for another career

Amber warning for the NE.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/ne_forecast_warnings.html