Good morning folks. Just a quickie this morning as I have a busy day ahead. A full report will be available tonight. Anyway here's an abridged version of my review of the 00z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday July 28th 2013.
The General Situation. Low pressure lies to the SW of the UK with a showery Southerly or SW flow across the UK following the remains of the area of heavy rain from the South yesterday yet to clear the far North. This broad patern persists for several days before an area of rain moves up from the SW or South late Tuesday/Wednesday and introduces warm and possibly hot and humid weather to SE regions after midweek. The North and West will remain cooler and more changeable while SE areas again become at risk from thunderstorms later in the week.
GFS then shows very warm air never far from the SE next weekend with a sunshine and shower mix elsewhere before a cold front slowly winds its way East across all areas early in Week 2 briging cooler and frsher air to all with a more settled and pleasant spells in association with a SE moving ridge later in the week. The end of the run shows a return to Atlantic fronts and occasional rain, most prolific in the NW.
The GFS Ensembles show a sharp rise in uppers for 24-48hrs in the SE late in the week before all areas become more typical for August of average conditions with occasional rain and some bright and dry spells too.
The Jet Stream continues to blow North or NE across the UK for much of the coming week before weakening on a more West to East axis across the UK in Week 2.
UKMO today shows Low pressure close to the NW by the start of next weekend with a sunshine and shower mix across the UK in SW winds. The SE will be bright and quite warm still with the threat of further pulses of thundery rain running NE in the far SE of this region.
GEM today keeps things more generally very warm next weekend before it feeds a trough East later with thudnery rain clearing to leave a somewhat cooler and more showery Weserly wind to end the run.
NAVGEM too manages to stagger cooler air across the UK next weekend following a humid period with thundery rain. Thereafter, a sunshine and shower mix look likely with most of the showers to the NW.
ECM shows a vigorous thundery Low move up from the South next Saturday with a lot of heavy rain and thunderstorms likely before cooler air follows to a pattern not dissimilar to that of today with sunshine and showers in cooler and fresher Atlantic air.
In Summary the changeable pattern persists with periods of warm or even hot, humid and potentially thundery weather, this most likely in the SE through the next few weeks. There will also be a fair amount of time when cooler and fresher weather is experienced with a more traditional pattern of Westerly winds and showers, these conditions more prevalent in the NW. The separating boundary between these weather types could well give rise to short periods of quite potent thundery rain and storms as the cooler air to the West buffers the hot conditions over or to the SE.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY