According to the BBC weather Tuesday looks like much of the country is going to get persistent rain all day. Is this a portent for a lenghty unsettled spell countrywide for the rest of the week/following weekend? Looks like a major return of the westerlies....

More likely to make another big mistake again so they are now ignored and blocked after today they want a washout Saturday that probably ruined many people outdoor plans today.  No car boot sales tomorrow so no problem after tonight rain which normally cancel it if rain on Sat evening.

 

did they not make mention of the MUCH !!! higher temperatures than they predicted ? from memory 21 degrees in my area ,yet nearly 29 reached , that is some feck up.( i only saw the early morning forecast) if not that is arrogance  i  know broadcast time  is very short, but one of my  pet hates is when they cock up they never give a explanation as to what went wrong !!!!

I know many take them with a pinch of salt but I was looking at my meto app for past 5days and it started forecasting Saturday to be 26*c 5 days out, then 24*c, then 23*c then 22*c and even this morning showed 23*c for today but we got upto 27.8*c here in the end. The breakdown of the day I give them credit for they got it nailed on when they said 16:00hrs the rain would start here

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Yes, the MetO, MOGREPS and ECM models handled yesterday's temperatures poorly - GFS was right with its much higher temperatures in the end.

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Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Dry and bright Tuesday morning, then cloud and rain later. Occasional rain on Wednesday with some brightness. Mainly dry, sunny spells and hot on Thursday, but turning thundery later.

Issued at: 0400 on Sun 28 Jul 2013

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UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Aug 2013 to Saturday 10 Aug 2013:

A rather unsettled start to August, with a risk of rain or showers in many areas, perhaps thundery in nature towards the southeast, where there is also the potential for some very warm or even hot conditions to develop at first. Thereafter southern and southeastern areas will see an increasing chance of more prolonged drier spells, although with cooler temperatures compared to the start of the month. Elsewhere, the unsettled theme looks set to continue with further showers or longer spells of rain and temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. Western and northwestern areas look likely to see the wettest conditions and it will generally become somewhat breezier. Cooler, fresher night-time temperatures are also expected, especially compared to recent nights.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Aug 2013 to Sunday 25 Aug 2013:

The latest indications are that the changeable conditions expected during the start of August should persist during the middle part of the month. Consequently, although showers or longer spells of rain are likely to affect the UK, these will probably tend to be across northern and western parts more than southern and eastern areas. There will also be some spells of fine and dry weather, particularly over southern and eastern regions, but also for central and some northern parts at times. On the whole, temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, with some warmer weather possible in the south and east at times.

Issued at: 0400 on Sun 28 Jul 2013

 

As long as the South stays dry from 9th -16th that will be fine

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J Hammond has 30c for the SE on Thursday

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UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Aug 2013 to Monday 12 Aug 2013:

This coming weekend, any thundery showers in the east should clear during Saturday, otherwise, generally unsettled with bands of rain or showers affecting many areas, but some sunshine as well. Showers could be heavy, mainly towards the northwest, while southern and eastern areas should see the best of the drier, brighter weather. Breezy, especially in the northwest, where temperatures will be near normal, but warm elsewhere. Into the start of next week, the unsettled theme will probably continue, with a risk of rain or showers in many areas, perhaps thundery at times. There is, however, an increasing chance of more prolonged drier, warmer spells for a time next week, particularly in the south and southeast. Many places could then become noticeably cooler later next week and into the following weekend.

 

I might just get away with warmer temps for the hol before the much cooler weather arrives

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3 weeks later and still no reply to my query to the BBC about their consistently inaccurate temperature forecasts on their national TV overviews.

Yesterday they underestimated the high here by 4°C. (The official max was 21°, the forecast high was 17°)

Today's forecast just on had a high of 16°C for Aberdeen, the current temperature is 16°C. Will this be yet another woeful forecast?

It is so predictable and simply means that the forecasts are just a waste of time if you live here. Day after day, the exact same failing.

Perhaps I am being overly harsh and today it will actually max out at the temperature reached by 8:20am.

Would 19 or 20°C be more realistic for a forecast?

Edit: while I was writing this post the temperature (at 8:50am) increased to 17°C

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You have to wonder if the gridpoint they use for Aberdeen to generate the temperatures is actually a mile or two out to sea. Wouldn't surprise me, and they probably didn't bother checking it because "well it's Scotland, it's always cold up there" 

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You're not Doc. I was up in Aberdeen for 3 weeks holiday between 26th June and 18th July. Everyday I was there the weather was better than the forecast given on the national BBC forecast, and friends and family had also noticed it, people are not stupid, we all know the set-up in early July is the kind where Aberdeen will easily get into the low/mid 20s day after day and that's exactly the kind of weather we had.

It simply isn't good enough, especially during the summer holidays when families are making decisions about how to spend their free time. Aberdeen has a fickle climate we all know that, it certainly has more extremes than the SE of England, but experienced knowlegable forecasters should be able to do better than default simply to 17C which seems to have been the forecast high there everyday this summer on the BBC.

 

 although i agree that the abvove will seem like a pain, given the fickle climate of the coastal scottish regions it seems like the safest bet.

 

If they forecast it to be 23*c and sunny when it turns out to be 16*c and drizzle with a wind, you would be alot more agreviated than you are now.  Its better to be under than over in my mind. 

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Not day after day when you are trying to make plans or promote summer/outdoor activities Russ. I see what you're saying and a "pleasant surprise" occasionally is nice when it turns out better/warmer than forecast, but not for every single warm sunny day.

Thanks Rob for your comments and to you too Philip, it's good to hear from you and I hope you enjoyed your stay.

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I'm chuffed that Aberdeen is doing so much better this summer. I notice that Scotland generally is also becoming the thunder centre of Europe  

I see Thursday's sunny day for most of England and Wales has now been replaced by..... a cloudy day away from the SE.

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Friday night thundery rain warnings for S and E

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1375225200

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I think next week stand a better chance for hotter weather than this week as it been wet yesterday and some light rain here this morning.  It been a poor forecast this week so far.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/418717/95F-heatwave-to-blast-back-to-Britain 

Idiots

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Got to trust their "expert" Jonathan Powell

If I get 35C on Friday then they got it right.  I think tomorrow likely around 32C.

They don't count your shed in official data sets 😝

I see we are due a high of 16°C here today (on the national lunchtime BBC forecast). Currently it's 19°C. Forecast failure number umpteen and counting.

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According to Weather Online the average max for Aberdeen this July has been 20.5C. This is second only to July 2006 in the 31 years of records on their site and warmer than the average max of July 2003, 1995 and 1983. I think that puts the forecasting failure in even greater context.

Very interesting and I hadn't noticed that. You could probably count on one hand the number of days the forecast max was that high.

The strange thing is that the BBC Scotland forecasts are generally pretty accurate, temperature wise. Do they use different data?

I do wonder if Rob's point about the grid point on the national forecast being a couple of miles out to sea is a good one. Perhaps it would explain why the closer "zoom" with the Scottish forecast eliminates the issue (as it may using a smaller grid scale). Either way to be blunt it is not really acceptable to be so consistently and indeed predictably wrong over such a long period of time.

I suspect there's no point in me querying it further as they did not reply to my first message. I am geeky enough to be able to look up the charts myself or look for other data sources, I suspect many others would rely more on the BBC national forecasts and will therefore be repeatedly misinformed.

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