August looks like starting hot and pretty much staying that way.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Some decent hot stuff there.

Thankfully we have the likes of Martin to give us a sound view of the models, free of cherry picking. Provided we get at least pleasantly warm conditions and not too much rain disruption I think most people will be happy

OT:
Talking of rain disruption I've booked an outdoor job tomorrow and models are firming-up on a 5 hour period of moderate rain here from 9am to 2pm.
Well and truely narked it has to be said, when today and Wednesday would have been fine. It's bricklaying before anyone asks LOL.

All of a sudden, the energy on Friday is going more N than NE. That brings GFS more in line with ECM and opens the door for heights rises to the NE to aid those to our E and bring about a more notable HP influence for a time.

More significently, it holds warm to very warm conditions across the UK, followed by hot conditions as the Atlantic undercuts and forms a braod trough across Spain.

Early FI might be a bit too progressive, but it still shows the potential for some notable heat and storms to come our way, again very much in line with recent ECM op runs.

FI then shows the pattern reloading again and again - signalling a truly extreme first half of August, especially across Europe! The UK might well get repeated plumes, and potentially the pattern could back slowly west with time, but now I'm getting way ahead of myself!

I wouldn't be talking about this so seriously if it wasn't for the consistent supportive signals from ECM lately.

UKMO is also supporting the general idea: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2013072912/UW144-21.GIF

That adjustment at just 96 hours range is a big deal, and goes to show how far the models can struggle with the interaction between the Atlantic energy and European HP - the tendency is to send too much energy NE just as we tend to see in winter.

Spend the day in the pub instead.

The ECM could be close to pinning this one down Matty in regards to further hot/humid/bangy plumes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The Met not far off!

Further upgrades on 12z with Monday now looking at 28C here and more warmth everywhere.  I think if this continue like that we would be looking at 30C on Monday to mid 30's by Wed as 20C uppers reach back here again after this week.

Starting to look better for my holiday from 9th onwards, temps picking up in FI

http://www.weatherweb.net/tvweather/londontempens.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/tvweather/london850tempecmwfem.gif

the ensembles dont really show any real heat apart from thursday -friday this week i know thats london but they all follow a similiar pattern

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek2.gif

means for the cfs week 2 dont look that warm either

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4prateeuweek2.gif looking fairly unsettled as well.

On the contrary... good GEFS support for that second plume 6th-8th August

Not sure what the CFS average maximum chart is really showing but it seems to show values more likely to turn up by night than by day...? Certainly not the average maximums, just look at France!

The rainfall could easily be largely from tomorrow's feature and then some convective fun thereafter

There we are - bledur's post well and truly balanced

Just had a browse through the 12Z GFS. It brings the 20C isotherm flirting with the SE corner not once, not twice but on THREE separate occasions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

As Alan Partridge once said: In the words of Shakin' Stevens: "Lovely stuff".

Loving this ensemble chart: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Like the Himalayas of heat. 

Phew - this sure has upgraded since I last looked at these last night.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Heat comes back and some and it stays as well.

You always do it so diplomatically too!

I think the CFS runs on that site may be a bit behind the curve - they have been punting a cool week 2 to 4 for August but it's only the last few op runs that extend the heat throughout the period so will see if the monthly GEFS start to trend warmer from now.

High pressure builds in strongly the unsettled start to August looks in doubt at the moment.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

ECM's holding steady from this morning, lending further support to the idea of HP travelling from our SW to our NE with the UK en-route

I'm still a little wary of possible over-reactions from the models, but with the whole change being driven by a shift at 96 hours, there's plenty of reason to anticipate that we'll have that combination of HP drifting NE from the Azores and Atlantic LP digging down into Spain - a nice recipe for plumes and booms

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Here it goes...

Well it might be a tad unsettled but ALIWBH!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Then it goes BANG again with some serious heat. Superb summer weather! No NW breakdown to be seen. Hot and thundery for the foreseeable.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

gm 20 upppers in uk within 78 hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=1&carte=0

Certainly an upgrade for hot weather fans from this morning. I would imagine 32-34C in favoured spots on Friday and then 30C again next week.

very hot looking end on the japs for south uk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=144&mode=1