theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 August 2013 09:10:30

Hello folks,


The CFS Six months look-ahead will be a semi-regular feature at GavsWeatherVids, appearing the first Sunday of every month.


Here is the six months look-ahead for August:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Some interesting patterns from the CFS model though as always huge health warning applies to this. What is it Gooner says JFF?


Oh and ManUMatt's Facebook page get's a plug too.


Enjoy.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gooner
04 August 2013 10:06:08

Excellent stuff Gavin

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Global Warming
04 August 2013 10:53:15

Thanks Gavin


Very interesting analysis. I do think the anomalous warmth in July was a one-off for this year and we can expect cool or cold conditions for much of the rest of the year. August and November look like being closest to average with some warmer weather at times but otherwise we could be well below average. I agree with your take on December - the temperature chart looks iffy to say the least.


I have seen other people suggest October could be particularly cold so that is one month I am keeping a very close eye on. Early snowfall this year could be on the cards.


As you say the CFS model changes all the time but if it is consistently throwing up substantial northern blocking with the kind of easterly anomalous flows that the charts are currently showing for the winter months then that is also one to keep an eye on. Interesting that we could see a second consecutive very cold March although that is of course a long way off. It is trends that are of most interest when looking at the CFS.


The last five winters have seen 9 months with temperatures more than 0.5C below average and only 3 months more than 0.5C above average. In the 11 winters before that there were only 4 months more than 0.5C below average. There is no doubt we are in a period of much cooler winters and there is every sign that this year will see more of the same. Just how cold it is we will have to wait and see.

Solar Cycles
04 August 2013 11:21:26
The CFS V2 models has been consistently churning out a cold blocked pattern from late November onwards for the last few months, with strong heights over Greenland in December and then these transferring over to Scandinavia in January. The usual caveats apply but one certainly to watch.
Charmhills
04 August 2013 11:57:35

Cheers Gav.


An very interesting winter should it verify.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
ARTzeman
04 August 2013 12:00:50

Thanks Gavin...


 


The gas man willbe happy with it being cool....





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gooner
04 August 2013 12:06:05


Thanks Gavin...


 


The gas man willbe happy with it being cool....   Bitter


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Amended

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


ARTzeman
04 August 2013 12:26:36



Thanks Gavin...


 


The gas man willbe happy with it being cool....   Bitter


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Amended


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Dougie
04 August 2013 12:45:43

Its interesting that most major models are going for extensive northern blocking during the winter months. Experimental though they may be, it does give some hope for cold weather lovers.


Thanks Gavin.

Ha'way the lads
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 August 2013 13:28:29

Just to say, the CFS video 6 months look-ahead is still on my home page, but it's now underneath a video I've done about tomorrows rain.



Thanks Gavin


Very interesting analysis. I do think the anomalous warmth in July was a one-off for this year and we can expect cool or cold conditions for much of the rest of the year. August and November look like being closest to average with some warmer weather at times but otherwise we could be well below average. I agree with your take on December - the temperature chart looks iffy to say the least.


I have seen other people suggest October could be particularly cold so that is one month I am keeping a very close eye on. Early snowfall this year could be on the cards.


As you say the CFS model changes all the time but if it is consistently throwing up substantial northern blocking with the kind of easterly anomalous flows that the charts are currently showing for the winter months then that is also one to keep an eye on. Interesting that we could see a second consecutive very cold March although that is of course a long way off. It is trends that are of most interest when looking at the CFS.


The last five winters have seen 9 months with temperatures more than 0.5C below average and only 3 months more than 0.5C above average. In the 11 winters before that there were only 4 months more than 0.5C below average. There is no doubt we are in a period of much cooler winters and there is every sign that this year will see more of the same. Just how cold it is we will have to wait and see.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Thanks GW.


I'm waiting to see how CFS's cool and unsettled September verifies - We've not had many since the mid 1990's, so if it's picked that one out it will be a major coup for CFS V.2.


 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
David M Porter
04 August 2013 14:49:09

quote=Global Warming;521613]


Thanks Gavin


Very interesting analysis. I do think the anomalous warmth in July was a one-off for this year and we can expect cool or cold conditions for much of the rest of the year. August and November look like being closest to average with some warmer weather at times but otherwise we could be well below average. I agree with your take on December - the temperature chart looks iffy to say the least.


I have seen other people suggest October could be particularly cold so that is one month I am keeping a very close eye on. Early snowfall this year could be on the cards.


As you say the CFS model changes all the time but if it is consistently throwing up substantial northern blocking with the kind of easterly anomalous flows that the charts are currently showing for the winter months then that is also one to keep an eye on. Interesting that we could see a second consecutive very cold March although that is of course a long way off. It is trends that are of most interest when looking at the CFS.


The last five winters have seen 9 months with temperatures more than 0.5C below average and only 3 months more than 0.5C above average. In the 11 winters before that there were only 4 months more than 0.5C below average. There is no doubt we are in a period of much cooler winters and there is every sign that this year will see more of the same. Just how cold it is we will have to wait and see.



Could get very busy on here (especially the model thread) next winter if this turns out to be the case!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
lanky
04 August 2013 14:50:52

Very interesting charts there Gavin


It's pretty insistent if nothing else - pretty similar to what you showed last month


I'm still having credibility issues with it though


When was the last time we saw 6 months of predicted pressure charts with no low pressure anywhere near  N Scotland or Iceland

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 August 2013 16:30:22


Very interesting charts there Gavin


It's pretty insistent if nothing else - pretty similar to what you showed last month


I'm still having credibility issues with it though


When was the last time we saw 6 months of predicted pressure charts with no low pressure anywhere near  N Scotland or Iceland


Originally Posted by: lanky 


Remember these are monthly anomalies. There would of course be deviation and moderation of these patterns for certain periods.


The way this should work though,  is that you should monitor these charts everytime they update and look for trends, rather than do what I've done here and take one run in isolation - Though it is strange that the one run I've taken in isolation this month is presenting very similar ideas to the one run I took in isolation last month - But it could just be coincidence.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Solar Cycles
04 August 2013 18:46:08



Very interesting charts there Gavin


It's pretty insistent if nothing else - pretty similar to what you showed last month


I'm still having credibility issues with it though


When was the last time we saw 6 months of predicted pressure charts with no low pressure anywhere near  N Scotland or Iceland


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Remember these are monthly anomalies. There would of course be deviation and moderation of these patterns for certain periods.


The way this should work though,  is that you should monitor these charts everytime they update and look for trends, rather than do what I've done here and take one run in isolation - Though it is strange that the one run I've taken in isolation this month is presenting very similar ideas to the one run I took in isolation last month - But it could just be coincidence.


Originally Posted by: lanky 

I'd say the CFS V2 model has done a pretty good job over the last 12+ months Gav, these + anomolies over Greenland have been  showing since around late May.

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 August 2013 21:34:33

It does appear that CFS V2 is more "stable" than V1 to be fair.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Stormchaser
04 August 2013 22:38:13

I've noticed that CFS is good at picking up on the liklihood of strong blocking episodes well in advance, but often it struggles to place them in terms of timing and longevity. March 2013 was an unusual case though; the model was predicting extensive blocking for March many months in advance, and barely even wavered as time counted down.


The model still has that over-progressive tendency, so if it shows major blocking of any kind, I consider that a big deal, even at 5-6 months range! Occasionally it does seem to get stuck with a flat jet undercutting blocking highs, leading to incredible anomalies stretching across many months, but it's the fact that it initiates the blocking in the first place that I consider to be significant

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
White Meadows
05 August 2013 08:53:38
A lot of credibility & praise being shown for a model regularly slated on a daily basis come the 'silly season'.

When was the updated version released and has it really been long enough to compare its performance to CFS v1?
Solar Cycles
05 August 2013 09:06:58

A lot of credibility & praise being shown for a model regularly slated on a daily basis come the 'silly season'.

When was the updated version released and has it really been long enough to compare its performance to CFS v1?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Obviously you've never used the CFS V2 model correctly then, it's thee best long range model out there and has been proven correct far more than its been wrong. Off course as SC above states timings and actual longtivity of patterns cannot be predicted with any accuracy but trends is where this model excels.

White Meadows
05 August 2013 09:25:00

A lot of credibility & praise being shown for a model regularly slated on a daily basis come the 'silly season'. When was the updated version released and has it really been long enough to compare its performance to CFS v1?

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Obviously you've never used the CFS V2 model correctly then, it's thee best long range model out there and has been proven correct far more than its been wrong. Off course as SC above states timings and actual longtivity of patterns cannot be predicted with any accuracy but trends is where this model excels.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


No, I've not used it before hence the question.


I was just wondering why the sudden change of mood towards this model while during winter months CFS is nothing but a laughing stock in the model output thread...

Solar Cycles
05 August 2013 09:38:41


A lot of credibility & praise being shown for a model regularly slated on a daily basis come the 'silly season'. When was the updated version released and has it really been long enough to compare its performance to CFS v1?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Obviously you've never used the CFS V2 model correctly then, it's thee best long range model out there and has been proven correct far more than its been wrong. Off course as SC above states timings and actual longtivity of patterns cannot be predicted with any accuracy but trends is where this model excels.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


No, I've not used it before hence the question.


I was just wondering why the sudden change of mood towards this model while during winter months CFS is nothing but a laughing stock in the model output thread...


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Lol, sorry if my post sounded critical, reading it again it does comes across as that.


The old CFS V1 model was pretty poor but since they updated this model it's had a surprising knack of picking up trends many months in advance, now that doesn't mean it wll be right this time but it's certainly one worth keeping an eye on WM.

ManUtdMatt1986
05 August 2013 14:24:51


Hello folks,


The CFS Six months look-ahead will be a semi-regular feature at GavsWeatherVids, appearing the first Sunday of every month.


Here is the six months look-ahead for August:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Some interesting patterns from the CFS model though as always huge health warning applies to this. What is it Gooner says JFF?


Oh and ManUMatt's Facebook page get's a plug too.


Enjoy.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thanks Gav. I hadn't realised


Not been paying a lot of attention to the weather the last few days as I've been feeling a bit down

Scandy 1050 MB
05 August 2013 14:47:58



A lot of credibility & praise being shown for a model regularly slated on a daily basis come the 'silly season'. When was the updated version released and has it really been long enough to compare its performance to CFS v1?

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Obviously you've never used the CFS V2 model correctly then, it's thee best long range model out there and has been proven correct far more than its been wrong. Off course as SC above states timings and actual longtivity of patterns cannot be predicted with any accuracy but trends is where this model excels.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


No, I've not used it before hence the question.


I was just wondering why the sudden change of mood towards this model while during winter months CFS is nothing but a laughing stock in the model output thread...


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Lol, sorry if my post sounded critical reading again it comes across as that.


The old CFS V1 model was pretty poor but since they updated this model it's had a surprising knack of picking up trends many months in advance, now that doesn't mean it wll be right this time but it's certainly one worth keeping an eye on WM.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Yes totally agree, the old CFS V1 model was rather poor but give the new one a go certainly - it seems to pick out trends with moderate success. Very interesting if a cold October and cool September occur - unusual to get both.

blizzard of 78
05 August 2013 19:50:50
Regarding CFS. I monitored all four daily 9 month runs every day in the 4 months leading up to winter last year and taking all the runs together and looking at what came up most often the CFS picked out the colder spells of last winter pretty well.

Although I didn't mention it in my posts at the time because I was concentrating on the winter months of Dec Jan Feb
The one thing it picked up and consistently showed from very early on was the exceptionally cold March.

So I would certainly give this model more credence than I ever used to in terms of trends of col or mild conditions.

Obviously it can't be an accurate forecaster of snow at that distance but in terms of finding the spells that might be cold enough for snow then it did pretty well from what my observations showed.

Quantum
05 August 2013 22:47:39

Regarding CFS. I monitored all four daily 9 month runs every day in the 4 months leading up to winter last year and taking all the runs together and looking at what came up most often the CFS picked out the colder spells of last winter pretty well.

Although I didn't mention it in my posts at the time because I was concentrating on the winter months of Dec Jan Feb
The one thing it picked up and consistently showed from very early on was the exceptionally cold March.

So I would certainly give this model more credence than I ever used to in terms of trends of col or mild conditions.

Obviously it can't be an accurate forecaster of snow at that distance but in terms of finding the spells that might be cold enough for snow then it did pretty well from what my observations showed.

Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 


You can use the CFS to predict snow to an extent imo, because the synoptic situs capable of doing so are very limited and can easily be divided into very general patterns. For example if the CFS kept showing high pressure anomolies over greenland and low pressure anomolies over Europe during an entire month; it perhaps wouldn't be insane to suggest that Eastern areas are likely to see snow because although the specifics are important situations like greenland blocks tend to produce similar snow distributions. What you can't do with the CFS is get any fine detail at all, like low pressure incursions e.c.t but over an entire month I think its possible to get a sort of 'averge' synopsis. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
JOHN NI
06 August 2013 13:49:31
And talking of 9 month CFS - I notice it hasnt updated since 25h July. ??
John.
The orange County of Armagh.
Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads