Thanks Gavin
Very interesting analysis. I do think the anomalous warmth in July was a one-off for this year and we can expect cool or cold conditions for much of the rest of the year. August and November look like being closest to average with some warmer weather at times but otherwise we could be well below average. I agree with your take on December - the temperature chart looks iffy to say the least.
I have seen other people suggest October could be particularly cold so that is one month I am keeping a very close eye on. Early snowfall this year could be on the cards.
As you say the CFS model changes all the time but if it is consistently throwing up substantial northern blocking with the kind of easterly anomalous flows that the charts are currently showing for the winter months then that is also one to keep an eye on. Interesting that we could see a second consecutive very cold March although that is of course a long way off. It is trends that are of most interest when looking at the CFS.
The last five winters have seen 9 months with temperatures more than 0.5C below average and only 3 months more than 0.5C above average. In the 11 winters before that there were only 4 months more than 0.5C below average. There is no doubt we are in a period of much cooler winters and there is every sign that this year will see more of the same. Just how cold it is we will have to wait and see.
Originally Posted by: Global Warming