Gooner - not sure if that counts as an ex-tropical storm?  No doubt there will be a definition around where it has to start from...

Looks like an ex-tropical storm/hurricane to me. That latest run looks pretty yuck compared to what was being shown just a couple of days ago. I hope it's an outlier.

It's ex-tropical alright. You can see it wandering west earlier on in FI, if you look down to the bottom-left of the charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM bring in a deep low late on in the run

Still there this morning but now GFS has it wandering off to Iceland instead

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM, ECM and the Fax Charts for today Wednesday August 28th 2013.

All models show a weak ridge of High pressure across the UK. With a lot of moist air entrapped mist and low cloud will be extensive this morning clearing later. It will stay dry everywhere. A front is shown to approach the NW tonight and move SE weakening beyond recognition by tomorrow afternoon across Southern Britain followed by a slightly more active one on Friday. Cloud from the first front will reach the NW tonight with a little rain dying out as it moves SE tomorrow. The second front will take the same route though a little rain is possible for most as this one passes later on Friday. Cooler NW winds are then shown to affect the UK though the weekend with dry and bright weather in the South while the North sees scattered blustery showers, heavy and frequent in the extreme North.

The Fax Charts show a series of troughs moving SE over the next few days followed by fresher and cooler NW winds as High pressure slowly builds back from the SW at the end of the weekend and start to next week.

GFS then shows next week starting with fine weather across many areas and it could become warm again in the South briefly before a more changeable pattern is shown by midweek as Low pressure troughs feed down from the NW with showers and cooler conditions developing before the 2nd weekend. Through the remainder of the run low pressure gradually transfers to be to the SE of the UK with showers and longer spells of rain in the SE. Pressure is shown to build in the NW with dry and cool conditions here. This drier cooler air sinks SE to remaining parts at the end of the run while the North sees unsettled weather return with rain at times in a Westerly breeze.

The GFS Ensembles show the cool dip at the weekend less pronounced in the South now though still noticeable before a warm up is again predicted for next week. The north sees much more average conditions following this cool dip with rain at times in westerly winds. Later in the run there are indications that more members are wanting to show rainfall across the South too as low pressure begins to take control with near to or a fraction below uppers shown.

The Jet Stream shows the flow to the North of the UK currently before an arm of it dives SE from Iceland across the North and East of the UK and the North Sea at the weekend. It then flattens West to East across Scotland next week before slowly becoming disorganized across the UK, Europe and the Eastern Atlantic at the end of the output.

UKMO this morning shows a North/South divide across the UK next week with the north under a fresh to strong West or NW flow with some rain or showers at times. In the South though cooler than of late some fine and dry weather is still shown towards midweek with more cloud and just shorter sunnier interludes.

GEM today shows High pressure holding close to the South well into next week with any rain and wind reserved for more North locations until later next week when the South could also see some cooler and more changeable conditions develop as the influence of low pressure affecting the North extends further South with time.

NAVGEM today is probably the least progressive of the output this morning with the same theme as the others of Low pressure passing by to the North of the UK bringing the occasional trough SE across the UK with the risk of some rain, at least in the North. However, on this run the North too would see some fine and bright weather at times with temperatures close to average.

ECM this morning holds reasonable weather across the South early next week while the North sees some rain at times. From midweek on pressure falls universally over the UK with complex low pressure engulfing the UK at the end of the run. This would mean from midweek on all areas would see rain or showers, heavy at times almost anywhere with temperatures very close to the seasonal average.

In Summary the weather holds firm across the South well into next week with a cooler blip following patchy rain SE on Friday. In the north the trend is for maintained changeable weather with rain at times with much more wind than further South. The trend for later in the output almost without exception is for more unsettled weather to develop for all of the UK in association with a Jet stream moving on a more Southerly latutude than recently with ECM showing Low pressure over or near the UK and attendant rain or showers at times for all. It does look as though it will be a fair old time before any significant rainfall is recorded on a widespread scale across Southern Britain though. 

Thank you Martin.

I see the cloud base is 60ft this morning.

Ps....Great to view WEB CAM direct from your postings..

Getting some early PV watching practice in at the moment - the GFS 00z op run offers up a slower transition of the PV energy to Siberia than given by the ECM 00z op. Based on the fact that last winter, the models were constantly slowing down the movement of the PV as it neared T+0, I'm inclined to take GFS more seriously than ECM at this stage.

ECM has reduced the amount of energy going to Siberia by day 10, so that could be a sign of the old trend returning. It's basically a form of over-progressiveness, which all models are often guilty of in the 7-10 day timeframe (and beyond for GFS and CFS).

Looking nice and decent weekend with average late August temps before rising to mid 20's for early Sept.  BBC not having any of it and show lower temps which had been the case all summer and all day rain on Saturday? Not showing in the models output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

GFS warming the South next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28817.png

This will feel chilly

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Wednesday August 28th 2013.

All models show a weak ridge of High pressure across the UK with a weakening front crossing SE tonight delivering no rain of consequence and becoming obsolete by dawn. Tomorrow sees another slightly more active trough follow a similar route through tomorrow and tomorrow night with sunshine becoming more of a premium than of late as cloud and a little rain moves down over most areas from the NW. This then clears SE leaving a cool and breezy NW flow over the weekend with sunny spells and fine weather for most though a few showers are likely in the North. The nights will become cool and Autumnal feeling everywhere. On Monday the weather stays dry and fine in the South and it may feel a little warmer as winds back towards the West. The north could see fronts cross East in the West flow with cloud and some rain, especially in the NW.

GFS then shows the South remaining fair for a time before a trough crosses East midweek over the UK with a spell of rain for all followed by a cool ridge of High pressure by the end of the week. This clears SE at the weekend as another Low pressure area becomes dominant from the North with some rain for all followed by a strong taste of Autumn in a strong NW to North flow with frequent showers in a squally cool wind. Rather changeable weather will continue until the end of the run with some rain at times in temperatures close to average in association with Low pressure positioned to the North of the UK.

The GFS Ensembles show a dip in uppers at the weekend before a short warmer phase in the South early next week. Thereafter more average conditions look likely with rain events a little more frequent in the South than of late. The operational was a cold outlier in it's 10-12 days range.

The Jet Stream shows an undulating pattern developing from the weekend as the main trajectory of the flow transports further South towards the 50-55 deg N latitude area.

UKMO tonight shows a North/South split again tonight with Northern areas seeing a fresh Westerly wind with occasional rain while Southern areas see more cloud than of late too but still mostly dry weather with a little sunshine and temperatures close to average.

GEM shows Westerly winds over the UK throughout it's output tonight. There will be occasional troughs in the flow bringing rain at times across the UK, only a little in the South with long dry spells in between while the North see the most windy and unsettled conditions overall.

NAVGEM tonight shows a slow deterioration in conditions in the South later next week as High pressure slowly becomes pushed back further to the SW as a trough gradually slips down from the North.

ECM tonight shows different synoptics again tonight as this morning complex UK Low pressure at the end of the run is substituted by a series of weak fronts sinking SE over the UK amalgamating to the SE and developing Low pressure in situ over Biscay. There would be some rain or showers in the South  for a time before the Low drifts slowly North to the SW of the UK sucking warmer air up into the SE again with some thundery showers possible. 

In Summary tonight the models are still struggling on whether to bring Autumnal conditions South to affect all of the UK or whether to maintain something akin to Summer in the South. Tonight's models indicate something of a halfway house on those two options with the trend for gradually cooling conditions in the South especially at night. There is also a tendency to bring the risk at least of some precipitation to the South at times later next week with most output suggesting this to a greater or lesser degree.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM drops the idea of a LP coming into the UK

And that chart if verified would deliver some nice warm weather.

Alright... ECM and GFS both model a split-jet scenario evolving later next week, with GFS taking a lot of energy SE through the UK while ECM takes a smaller amount of energy and drops it to our SW, with a lot more staying on the NE trajectory than was shown on previous runs or the GFS 12z, for example.

Really it is only ECM that's going all out on the split-jet idea, with GFS only giving it a slight nod at this stage.

UKMO shows no signs of a split-jet at all, and is supported by GEM in showing a very flat setup more akin to what the past few days of model output in general have been showing us at the longer range. Amplification later on then brings the trough down across us on the GEM run.

The notion of an amplification of the pattern - and PV energy heading towards Siberia - remains widely accepted by the models tonight, but they disagree strongly on when and where the amplification will start; that is what decides between a split-jet or just the one streak of thermal winds surging east or southeast from the Atlantic.

Lets hope for this output. 

Hi everyone. Here is my report on how I see the midnight outputs of GFS, The Fax Charts, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday August 29th 2013.

All models show a Westerly flow over the UK albeit fairly slack. Weak fronts are shown by all models to slip SE across the UK over the next 48 hours with a little rain in places but precious little in the South where some warm bright intervals are likely both today and tomorrow. Winds will freshen in the North tomorrow as a deep Low crosses East well to the North sweeping fresher and cooler conditions SE to all areas by the weekend which looks to be a bright and breezy one with some cooler and fresher days and Autumnally cool night's. Early next week looks like seeing High pressure close to the South with warmer and brighter conditions for a time in the South while the North turns more cloudy and breezy with occasional rain.

The Fax Charts show a series of troughs moving SE over the UK over the next few days clearing the SE on Saturday with pressure rising strongly over Southern Britain over the weekend before fronts affect the North by the start of next week with High pressure over the South being steadily squeezed away South with cloudier and breezier weather developing overall with some rain in the North. After a cool weekend the South will warm up for a time early next week.

GFS has High pressure positioned over the South early in the week with fine and warm weather slowly giving way midweek to Low pressure feeding down from the NW with increasingly breezy and unsettled weather reaching all areas by the weekend in cooler and windier conditions for all. Thereafter the trend is for much more unsettled conditions to persist with rain at times but some drier and brighter interludes too with temperatures close to the September average for all areas.

The GFS Ensembles show the weather finally breaking down over the South around the 5th with good support from most members on this outcome. Until then there are five or 6 more days of fine and dry conditions projected for the South while the North sees more changeable conditions up to that point. Once the break occurs rainfall will affect all areas at times with temperatures close to the seasonal average with some blustery winds at times.

The Jet Stream currently moving NE towards Iceland moves SE across the North Sea at the weekend. It then moves further South in position over the Atlantic with it's flow taking it in the direction of Scotland next week. Late in the period it appears to show signs of splitting with one arm South and one North of the UK but this all looks rather tentative at this range.

UKMO today shows a High pressure belt to the South moving away slowly East. In the South dry, fine and still relatively warm conditions would ensue while the North sees more cloud and wind with occasional rain. It looks like this weather would extend further South over subsequent days late next week.

GEM today is having none of the turning more unsettled phase and instead shows a cold front clearing South midweek next week when a little rain in the South would be possible before High pressure slides back over from the West to centre over the UK in 10 days time with fine, bright if Autumnal conditions for all by then away from the far NW.

NAVGEM shows fine weather up until midweek when Low pressure pushes down from the North late next week with increasingly unsettled conditions developing over most areas.

ECM goes for a much more rapid deterioration in conditions after midweek next week with a very deep Autumnal Low taking up residence near NE Scotland by next weekend with rain, showers and gales all featuring over the UK in what would become a very cool feeling spell of weather too in the strong West or NW wind.

In Summary the trend remains for a change in the weather around the middle of next week when the South would join the North in experiencing rain at times in brisk Westerly winds as Atlantic Low pressure finally makes more penetration towards Southern Britain on a more Southerly tracking Jet flow than of late. Only GEM bucks this trend this morning with all other output showing this theme to a greater or lesser degree. However, before all this happens there is still a spell of 5-6 days when Southern Britain and at times Northern Britain too can still enjoy some fine and settled weather albeit with slowly declining temperatures than of late.

It now looks like a continuation of summer/warm weather, at least for the first few days of September before maybe going slowing down hill after that.

Met Office 30 day forecast is very similar....

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Autumn Arrives Next Week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Some uncertainty, but looks like the weather may turn much cooler and much more changeable later next week.

Signs of Autumn then

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

Some warmth through next week