How the algorithm works is not really the issue. Gandalf is right in that a monthly anomoly chart shouldn't swing as wildly as the daily prediction so far ahead because over a month the variation should iron out so long as the broad scale pattern is modelled fairly accurately.
In that respect the huge swings we are seeing on CFS renders it useless in setting even trends for four or five months ahead.
I for one won't be fooled.
Originally Posted by: Matty H
But that's the point they are not swingingly wildly on a monthly basis, they've been consistently showing high latitude blocking since May.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Apologies if this is blunt, but they haven't.
If by 'showing high latitude blocking' you mean on selected days for selected months then you're probably right, but there is as far as I can see no trend and no pattern from one run to the next. At this range it is generally accepted that the CFS is as useful as a fart in a spacesuit.
Happy to see evidence that says otherwise though.
Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles
You are, of course, quite right. Cherry picking charts is only cheating ones self. It is useless, but then so is anything that forecasts that far in advance as it can only be correct by luck.
I'll never understand the fascination with LRFs until they become remotely useful. It's like starting threads on a forum to discuss the likelihood of alien life announcing itself on earth next year, and then starting another 40 threads discussing the same thing. I don't get what is gleaned from it at all. To what point does it serve any purpose whatsoever? Until such time as they can be proved to have any scientific chance of being accurate, what exactly is the point?
Yes I'm well aware this is a weather forum, and I'm certainly not saying they shouldn't be discussed. It's a rhetorical question/rant
Originally Posted by: nsrobins