Good morning folks. Here is the daily morning look at the midnight outputs issued by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday September 25th 2013.
All models indicate a warm South or SE feed across the UK between Low pressure down to the SW and High to the East. This pattern changes little over the coming days with a trend for Low pressure to edge closer to Southern Britain by and over the weekend with a stronger risk of rain at times than is shown currently. The North on the other hand will see the current occasional rain slip a little further South with much cooler conditions for a time before milder SE winds push back North later with just a little rain more likely in the West of this area.
GFS then shows a changeable pattern next week as Low pressure slowly migrates North and East to the West of the UK turning winds from the SE towards a Westerly point. Through this period all areas are still at risk of some rain but Eastern and NE areas may not fair badly with a lot of dry and still reasonably warm weather to be found. With the Low to the SW moved NE it opens the door for the Azores High to build again across Britain for the countless number of times over the last three or four months which would return fine and dry conditions for most with reasonable day temperatures but mist and foggy nights likely again too. Any cloud and rain would then become restricted to the far NW of Britain.
UKMO today shows an undercutting development with energy from Low pressure to the SW sliding East across France keeping Southern Britain at risk to rain at times, some of which would be heavy as fronts edge North. The North would become or stay largely dry as High pressure out to the East extends a ridge West towards Scotland with all areas experiencing winds from an Easterly point.
GEM today shows High pressure over Scandiavia towards midweek next week while Low pressure out to the West and SW continues to spin troughs up across the South and West of the UK. Rain at times would occur here with misty conditions in often leaden skies. Further north and East conditions will be drier but here too a lot of cloud and a little rain is possible at times. Fresher cleaner air could reach the SW at the end of the run as winds begin to turn towards the SW.
NAVGEM shows High pressure slipping South over Europe next week with the persitent Atlantic Low pressure to the West filling and moving slowly North. The net result would be for winds to turn from SE to SW with time with the occasional rain in the South and West transferring more towards the NW while Southern and Eastern areas could potentially become dry and warmer again later next week.
ECM is broadly similar as it too has Low pressure filling and moving NE to the West of the UK while High pressure over Europe extends a finger towards Southern Britain with a warm SW flow developing with the rain of early in the week in the South and West extending North to the NW but leaving the South and East relatively dry and possibly bright by the end of the week.
The GFS Ensembles show that warm weather is expected to persist over the Uk for the coming two weeks. A slow leak of warmth is shown over the period but even by the end of the run there is good support for a maintained spell of uppers above average. Rainfall amounts are showing a continued trend to lessen in amount from previous outputs especially later in the run and in the SE.
The Jet Stream shows the flow developing to the South of the UK over France for the next three to four days before this pattern weakens as a new arm now has good support for reforming at more northerly latitudes to the North of Scotland later next week.
In Summary today the programmed breakdown in the weather continues to be watered down with every run. The culprit is High pressure over Europe which maintains a ridge West across Scotland early next week with rain from the Low pressure areas to the SW affecting Southern Britain at times. The High transfers South over Europe by the end of next week as Low pressure to the West fills and moves North. Winds then shift SW and a more NW/SE split develops with the South and East seeing the best of by then dry, bright and mild weather close to the High pressure ridge extending from Southeast Europe while the NW stay at risk from rain bearing troughs crossing by on occasion. Given the time of year and as a result of all this it looks unlikely there is any particularly inclement Autumn gales and heavy rain to come with the winds maintaining their period of unusually light strengths that we have seen for some considerable time of late.
Edited by user
25 September 2013 07:45:47
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset