Good evening. Some advance info from me to notify you that there will be no report from me in the morning either on my website or here as I am on the road with my work tomorrow morning from early doors so won't be around until evening. Will be back in time for the evening runs though.
Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Wednesday September 25th 2013.
All models continue to show warm air across Southern Britain but there is a colder feed of air making some progress South across Northern and Eastern areas currently. There is a lot of dry weather about but some bursts of showery rain too in places at times especially in the South and West over the next 24 hours and much more so over the weekend as some heavy and thundery rain is shown to affect the South at times while the North stays rather direr and brighter in somewhat cooler temperatures away from the far North.
GFS then shows a West/East split next week with warm Southerly winds pushing back up across Northern areas too early next week. Troughs will be ganging up to the West of Britain and are likely to make inroads East across Britain, to what extent though is very uncertain. As it stands spells of quite weather would be likely in the West while Eastern areas would more likely see drier and brighter spells between the rain. The latter end of the run indicates changeable conditions with rather cooler air in place too. There would be some dry and brighter spells almost everywhere at times when quiet and settled days could lead to overnight fog before the next band of rain moves in.
UKMO tonight shows Low pressure to the SW towards the middle of next week with further troughs carrying bands of showery rain North across Britain with temperatures probably a little lower than recently in SE winds.
GEM tonight shows quite a windy period next week as deep Low pressure lies close to the West. The winds will be from the South and it would still feel reasonably warm for many outside of the rain, which would come in bands East and North across pricipally Western locations with the driest conditions to the East, though even here some heavy rain could be possible at times.
NAVGEM too shows a feed of South or SE winds lasting well into next week with some rain at times in the South and West. The far East though may not see too much rain for a time before all areas become more at risk at the end of the run as pressure falls.
ECM tonight shows broadly similar trends to this morning with unsettled conditions for much of the period as Low pressure remains to the West and SW before showing signs of moving away NE late in the run. There would be rain at times throughout, potentially heavy in places, especially in the South and West for much of the run before the north and West become more at risk later. All areas could see some drier spells too with the East likely to see the best of these. It will stay on the warm side of average throughout as winds are maintained mostly between SE and SW.
The GFS Ensembles show a slow decline in uppers towards average by the end of the run. The weather turns changeable for most areas with occasional rain at times throughout.
The Jet Stream shows the flow to the North virtually dead in the water now as the circulation to the SW takes control as it links with a new arm exiting the Atlantic to form a Southern arm crossing East towards France. The indications for the period beyond the middle of next week are very sketchy and not worthy if comment at this range.
In summary the weather looks like staying fairly static in it's pattern with Low pressure looking odds on to remain close to the SW and West through the period with outbreaks of rain and heavy showers pushing North on occasion while High pressure to the NE and East holds enough influence to ward off the worst of the rain from more Eastern locations where longer dry spells rather than wet look likely. Temperatures although slipping back will never fall that much and even at the end of the run in average uppers any sunnier moments between the rain bands will feel pleasant enough.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY