At first glance I thought this evening's 12z runs revealed nothing new to keep an eye on, but actually there is something from UKMO;

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013092612/gem-0-144.png?12

It has the Atlantic trough a little weaker and further south, with more of an undercut leading to a SE flow rather than a S flow.

I wasn't thinking much of it until I noticed that GEM is almost identical to UKMO for day 6 and goes on to produce this:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013092612/gem-0-192.png?12

...which offers a drier continental airmass rather than a moist tropical maritime one - so a chance to see some of those glorious sunny autumn days as the trees change their colours

So, something worth keeping an eye on what with there being nothing much else going on

As long as it's dry

Not really - it's autumn and it's the time of year when we should be replensihing our water stocks. We need rain, in fact, not more extended dry weather.

https://brand.environment-agency.gov.uk/mb/r0Y5p

This current spell of weather is incredibly boring in my view and the early attempt at autumn seems to have fizzled out in favour of our usual "extended summer" September weather. It looks like going on well into October too, with both GEFS and the ECM ensembles keen on a continued mild / warm spell for at least the next 10 days.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday September 27th 2013.

All models show slow changes over the coming week with a slowly strengthening ESE flow over all areas, becoming rather warm for all areas after the cooler air over the North is slowly wafted away back North. There will be a lot of dry weather to be found especially over the North and East as High pressure remains to the NE slipping slowly South early next week. In contrast Low pressure is edging ever closer to SW Britain with some heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain reaching the far South and SW tonight then extending slowly North and even slower East over the weekend to reach most areas by Tuesday of next week.

GFS then shows Low pressure riding North up the Western side of the UK with winds veering South or SW. With troughs still lying over the West further rain is expected in places , more particularly by then towards Northern and Western Britain with the SE having the best chance of staying drier where temperatures will remain a little above average. In the extended part of the run a cool Autumnal area of High pressure builds across the UK from the West with a cool spell with bright days but very chilly nights with mist, fog and frost all possible before a cold Northerly flow develops behind a trough at the end of the run.

UKMO today shows Low pressure to the West and High pressure well to the East with a strong Southerly flow carrying outbreaks of rain quickly North and much more slowly East across the UK through next week.

GEM is largely similar extending it's unsettled spell well into next weekend and beyond as Low pressure is more resolute in maintaining influence over the UK albeit in a more weakened for near or over the UK by Day 10.

NAVGEM sows a more SE flow lasting all of next week with the South and West always on a collision course with outbreaks of potentially heavy rain at times while Northern and Eastern areas stay much drier and brighter with strong SE winds at timees almost everywhere.

ECM shows an unsettled week before next weekend sees High pressure building North and NE from the SW with drier and brighter weather spreads NE over the South and East of the UK in particular with quite warm conditions returning by then with some sunshine in the SE.

The GFS Ensembles show good support for a sustained period of uppers above average as winds continue to blow from a warm Southerly source. The warmest conditions are still shown to slowly leak away with time though any coldweather is not likely. There will be a reasonable amount of rain around at times especially in the South over this weekend and early next week before High pressure begins to have some influence towards the South again later next week and beyond.

The Jet Stream shows the flow setting up to the South and SW of the UK over the weekend where it remains for a time. Later it then weakens and moves North again to be clear of the North of the UK next weekend and beyond.

In Summary the weather will remain unsettled for the reliable timeframe. The warm Southerly winds will feed rain North and East across the UK throughout the first week. As winds slowly turn SW on response to Low pressure edging further North over the Atlantic the emphasis of rain will switch to the North and West and with some support for a pressure build close to the South and SE of Britain in 10 days or so, particularly shown again by ECM the weather could well become dry and unseasonably mild again with some sunshine towards the end of the run in the South and East with any rain by then more likely towards the far NW.

Thanks Martin

Indeed.

Its notable the lack of rainfall this Autumn so far bar the odd wet day.

UKMO is all alone this morning now that GEM has moved ship to join ECM and GFS in taking energy NE over the blocking high across Scandinavia.

What UKMO shows is almost identical to what we've ended up with to our W/SW for much of this week. The removal of energy going NE happened quite suddenly across the models with that one, so it still can't be ruled out for the situation next week.

This has become interesting from an academic point of veiw - will the models be forced to perform an almost identical late correction for the second time in succession?

Thanks Martin

Dry warm weather great!

Hi all,

I've done an October Look-Ahead video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks like a classic "mixed" October.

Cheers Gav

looking forward to the lower temps later

I'm not yet ready to come out of hibernation, but I'm starting to pick up interest

If you're still in hibernation how come you're posting online? Go back to sleep and I'll come and wake you up in December.

The nights are drawing in and hopefully a chill in the air soon, so I am starting to wake from my slumber

Cheers Gav a must look everyday when I get the chance.

Thanks Gavin. Looks like a potentially interesting month!

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday September 27th 2013.

All models show a slowly increasing ESE airflow over the UK carrying still reasonably warm air across the UK. A cold front approaches the far North tonight before weakening tomorrow. Southern Britain will be at risk of showers coming North from Biscay in association with Low pressure near Iberia. The chance of showers waxes and wanes over the weekend in the South and SW before the risk extends further North and East early next week as Low pressure edges North close to Western Britain and winds swing more towards the SW.

GFS then shows changeable conditions continuing through the remainder of the run with a short drier interlude possible in the South before markedly colder weather with Northerly winds and showers, wintry on hills arrives late in the run with frost at night in the North.

UKMO keeps unsettled conditions throughout next week as winds veer more towards the SW and temperatures fall back somewhat with Low pressure close to NW Britain late next week.

GEM shows the weather slowly improving later next week as High pressure ridges first across Northern Britain before extending further South. The SE is last to improve as a cut off Low near SE England late in the run keeps things more showery here. Temperatures would be on the warm side still at first cooling off a bit late on.

NAVGEM shows a SW flow across the UK in a week's time with Low pressure close to the NW influencing all of Britain with a mix of sunshine and showers in decreasing winds and average temperatures.

ECM still shows an unsettled week similar to some of the other output in that it shows a rise of pressure at the end of next week with some quiet and fine weather replacing the early wind and rain. Mist and fog would become likely at night though the SE could see a NE breeze and the occasional shower for a time as pressure remains lower over the near Continent. The run ends with High pressure formed strongly over the UK with fine quiet weather by day with fog at night.

The GFS Ensembles show another set indicating a slow decline in uppers to levels around the seasonal average by the end of the period. The weather is also indicated to be changeable with rain at times throughout the period and across the UK though the North will stay mostly dry now until the turn of the month.

The Jet Stream is strongest to the South of the UK over the coming three to five days with a weaker arm continuing to flow to the North of the UK. Later on the prognosis for the flow is very much undecided and shows no particularly reliably accurate prediction from tonight's output.

In Summary the weekend doesn't look too bad away from Southern England tomorrow. Early next week it appears that unsettled and windy conditions extend across the UK for all as winds veer SW in response to Low pressure edging North towards the NW of the UK. Longer term the output is quite mixed and though some High pressure intervention is shown on some output the current patterns are inconclusive on how this develops. 

Good morning. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday September 28th 2013.

All models suggest a similar pattern over the next 7 days. Low pressure currently to the South and SW of the UK has meant a freshening ESE flow has developed over the UK. While fairly warm in origin it's effect will be to temper any meaningful warmth felt from temperatures well above average. In addition a cold front near NW Scotland will maintain cloudy weather here with occasional rain while Southern and SW Britain remain at risk from heavy and thundery showers throughout the weekend especially today. Early next week will see slow but subtle changes take hold as the Low that's down to the SW drifts North to the West of Britain reaching a point close to NW Scotland by the end of the coming working week. This will have the effect of veering winds from ESE through South and eventually SW which will carry the showers and rain from the South and West early in the week across all areas by midweek with somewhat lower temperatures as the continental drift is lost. Late in the week most models show some sort of rise of pressure to the South with rainfall becoming more and more confined to the North and West of Britain by next weekend.

GFS only half-heartedly develops such a ridge temporarily close to the South before another surge of Atlantic energy fairly well South in the Atlantic returns us to square one with Southerly winds and heavy rain at times especially in the South and West which then extends quickly North to be followed by yet another rise of pressure from the South at the end of the run with fine conditions chasing the rain that's left over the North away in temperatures returning to temperatures close to average.

UKMO closes it's run with a SW flow blowing over the UK next Friday with the most likely weather type being sunshine and showers with the heaviest of these by then in the West and North. Pressure will be rising steadily from the South so just outside the range of the output it looks as though the weekend may not be too bad.

GEM builds pressure strongly over Britain next weekend with sunshine for all but with the risk of mist and fog very high following the previous week's rainfall. Southern Britain is afflicted by an Easterly breeze on this run which would indicate more cloud and a potential light shower risk towards the far SE.

NAVGEM is less enthusiastic about much in the way of ridge development next weekend instead maintaining a SW feed for all with fronts moving NE across Britain delivering spells of rain and showers at times in average value temperatures.

ECM is still as keen this morning as it was last night to develop High pressure over the UK next weekend with remaining rain in the North and West to start next weekend being slowly eroded away for a time with all areas settling into a period of calm and more settled weather for a while with fine and bright days when it may feel luke warm mixed with potentially foggy and chilly nights especially in the South though pressure does look to be slowly leaking away again by Day 10.

The GFS Ensembles support a steady but slow decrease in temperatures in the atmosphere this morning to levels close to average for early October by next weekend and maintained thereafter. Rainfall is fairly common for all through next week before suggestions of a drier phase are shown in the South for a time before more unsettled conditions return towards the end of the run.

The Jet Stream shows the main thrust of energy to the South of the UK through the coming week before it lifts slowly North to be over or just to the North of the UK in the second half of the run.

In Summary today we have fairly firm agreement that the next week is going to maintain it's unsettled phase in the far South and West and this will extend North and East in the early part of the working week. Winds will shift towards the SW later lowering temperatures somewhat with the heaviest rain shifting towards the NW by Friday. There is reasonable support for a build of pressure again then across Britain with GEM and ECM showing a similar evolution toward this at least for a time. GFS and NAVGEM are less keen to make much of this either maintaining or bringing back changeable conditions again soon after next weekend. There is no likelihood of anything cold at the moment with temperatures most likely to fall from their current above average values to near normal levels by next weekend and beyond.

Thank you Martin..

Been out in those showers this morning..

Good evening folks. Here is tonight's look at the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday September 28th 2013.

All models are very similar to this morning in their first week of output so those who read my report this morning will know the most likely sequence of events are as follows. The next few days see a lot of fine and dry weather across the UK in an Easterly breeze which feeds off a warm continent. In comparison there is a Low to the South spawning showers and thunderstorms over Northern France and the Channel Islands which move NW across SW England and SW Wales before decaying as they move further inland. Tomorrow will see less of these before a renewed attack from the SW on a slowly veering wind towards the SE and South takes place early next week as the parent Low near Iberia moves North across the Western approaches to arrive near NW Britain by the end of the working week. through the week the showery and unsettled weather in the SW throughout will extend further North and East to all areas by midweek with some heavy and thundery downpours in the mix too. After a warm start to the period cooler air will slowly take over through the week as the winds turn to a more maritime influence.

GFS then shows the end of the week with Westerly winds and showers but improvements move up from the SW to affect most of England and Wales for a time where a fine and dry spell coincides with next weekend before a deterioration moves across from the West in the shape of  SW winds and troughs and eventual cool Low pressure when temperatures fall well down on recent levels. There would be showers and outbreaks of rain for all through the rest of the run with some snow possible on the Scottish high ground later on.

UKMO shows a showery WSW flow late next week though anticipated pressure rises are looking hard to achieve on the Day 6 frame when looking toward not to expect next weekend. It will become cooler in the more Atlantic based airflow.

GEM shows limited improvements late next week and the weekend  affecting mostly Southern and Eastern areas while northern and Western areas stay cloudy and breezy with troughs crossing NE delivering outbreaks of rain and drizzle at times.

NAVGEM shows pressure rising next weekend though Northern and western areas remain changeable with further fronts carrying rain and a stiff SW breeze NE next weekend while the South and East become much drier but not overly sunny or warm under a rather cloudy ridge.

ECM still shows an improvement next weekend as High pressure builds North across the British Isles giving a change to fine and dry weather with fog at night and maybe a touch of frost in places too. Towards the end of the run Low pressure fills in the Atlantic and drifts South as High pressure replaces it to bring a cooler NW flow across the UK late in the run with a lot of dry weather but with the chance of some showers in the North and East.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a trend towards more average levels of temperature though with the likelihood that temperatures will not likely fall below average but stay slightly above. The second trend is for a spell of wet weather likely for all for a time next week with things trending drier in the South and East latterly.

The Jet Stream shows the flow to the South of the UK maintained for quite a while before the flow undulates further North over the UK. In the second part of the run the flow is indeterminate and hard to decipher as there is quite a scope of options from the members.

In Summary the weather looks like being rather changeable beyond the fairly agreed sequence of weather for next week. Temperatures will fall back to some degree as we move through next week but there doesn't appear to be any notably chilly weather on the immediate horizon yet.

Good morning folks. Here is this mornings look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday September 29th 2013.

The General Situation. The UK is currently covered by a ESE flow between Low pressure to the SW and High to the NE. The effects of the Low to the SW will be limited today with most areas having a fine, breezy and rather warm day with some sunshine at times. Through the next 24 hours a new push of unstable air will move up to affect the South and west with thundery showers tomorrow while other areas continue the breezy and bright weather with some warm sunshine. By Tuesday and Wednesday Low pressure will be edging further North and East up the Western flank of the British Isles pulling winds round to a more Southerly point as well as bringing all of the UK at risk of showers or longer spells of rain with only short drier spells. By the latter stages of the week the Low will be to the NW of Britain and all areas will see winds swing into a cooler SW direction with a much more maritime influence but still carrying rain and showers East to all areas at times right up to the weekend before a slow change to drier and brighter conditions begin to affect the South and East as a brief High pressure ridge looks like grazing Southern Britain as it moves NE.

GFS then maintains a very changeable second week but never too cold anywhere. Further low pressure moves across the North of the UK at times sufficiently far enough South to put the whole of the UK at risk of rain at times with some brighter and drier spells in between. Temperatures would be relatively close to the seasonal average and it would probably be rather windy at times especially towards the North and West.

UKMO shows it's final day chart with the UK under a showery Westerly or WSW flow with sunshine mixed with showers passing through in the breeze. Average temperatures would be likely next weekend so it probably wouldn't feel too cold in any sunshine and away from the cloud and showers which would be heaviest by then in the North and West.

GEM shows a more meaningful push of high pressure up across the South of the UK next weekend from the SW while the North stays a little more changeable with some further rain at times. After a dry and fine few days in the South the High is shown to give way to renewed Low pressure from off the Atlantic with rain and showers in average temperatures extending to all areas by the middle of Week 2.

NAVGEM has High pressure having built over France next weekend but probably insufficiently close to put the whole of the UK under fine weather. Instead a rather cloudy SW flow would likely to have developed with mostly dry conditions in the South and SE while all Northern and Western areas would most likely become cloudy and breezy with rain and drizzle at times. It would be relatively mild though.

ECM also shows a short improvement for the South next weekend before all areas join in again with a strong Low pressure influence to the West and NW of Britain with mostly mild South or SW winds carrying bands of potentially quite heavy rain and showers North and East across all areas at times with the North and West seeing the worst conditions.

The GFS Ensembles paint a slowly cooling picture through this coming week to average temperatures which are then largely maintained through Week 2. After the potentially thundery rain at times through the coming week a reduction in rainfall is likely through Week 2 especially in the South at least for a time.

The Jet Stream's main arm is currently blowing to the South of the UK at the moment in association with the Low to the SW. As that moves North through the coming week so does the Jet flow. Although it's position varies between the members it's most favoured option appears to be a Easterly moving flow close to the British Isles through week 2.

In Summary Week 1 looks fairly agreed upon by most members from all models that the gradual transformation of Low to the SW to Low to the NW will take all week to complete. As this occurs all areas will be susceptible to periods of rain and showers, heavy at times perhaps with thunder, mostly in the SW at first but anywhere from Tuesday. It looks reasonably likely that a brief ridge of high pressure could affect the South for a time next weekend but in general it looks like it may be quite short-lived as there is reasonable support for more changeable weather to develop through Week 2 but it would never be desperately cold with any frost and fog risk very low at this stage.