Cool nights wanted with clear skies...Not damp and cloudy...

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Loving it!

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Me too. Though more changeable during the week, the consolation is the v.mild temperatures.

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Enjoy Reading :-)

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Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday September 30th 2013.

All models continue to show a warm and moist SE flow over the UK with weakening troughs edging into the SW repeatedly over the coming days gradually becoming more active and penetrative into other areas away from the SW by midweek with the occasional rain becoming heavier and more widespread by midweek. On Thursday a very wet day is likely as a thundery disturbance runs North from Spain and France up across the UK giving the chance of some disruptive rainfall in places. Once passed the weather will calm down as winds veer West and clearer and fresher conditions move across from the West to all areas by the weekend.

GFS then shows a drier interlude across Southern and Eastern England and Wales with some sunshine in shelter with temperatures on the mild side still. In the North and West a windier spell is expected still with occasional rain and a fresh breeze across the North and West. This then extends to other areas later next week as a series of troughs and Low pressure areas swing NE across the UK in more average temperatures. the heaviest rain and strongest winds will remain towards the NW.

UKMO closes it's run tonight with a quiet and settled end to next weekend with dry and bright weather with respectable temperatures for October. Only the far NW will likely see any rainfall. The night's will be chilly with the risk of mist and fog in the South.

GEM tonight also shows a dry and bright interlude in the South next weekend in an otherwise changeable run with some rain at times shown for all with the heaviest of this in the north and west where gales can be expected as well at times.

NAVGEM looks like the weather will be staying on the warm side with a light SW flow around High pressure to the SE. the NW will see cloudy weather with occasional rain while the SE could see some warm susnhine.

ECM shows yet another quiet and generally mild spell coming up once we have removed this weeks changeable and sometimes wet weather. With winds becoming light and the air inherently warm temperatures will be well above average in places with night's rather cooler with mist and fog patches expected. As we move into next week ECM goes one step further suggesting that things may become exceptionally warm with some sunshine in the South. 

The GFS Ensembles show no real sign of anything remotely deep Autumnal with relatively mild and benign weather for the South in particular and nothing out of the ordinary for the North either. Apart from Thursday rainfall amounts will be relatively small with many dry days in the South.

The Jet Stream shows the flow that's currently to the South of Britain migrating further North at the end of this week where it becomes persistent at a position crossing NW Scotland moving NE through next week.

In Summary tonight it looks like this week's push into more unsettled weather with some potentially heavy rain especially on Thursday will just be a blip as there are growing signs of yet another spell of fine and potentially exceptionally warm conditions next week especially if ECM will have us believe. Almost all models show at least a temporary period of dry and bright weather across Southern and Eastern Britain while the North and West look like seeing the best chance of keeping cloudy and less mild conditions with rain at times and perhaps strong winds too.

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So... prediction made based heavily on a mild but unsettled first half being indicated consistently by the models.

Now along comes the ECM 12z op run.

It features a pull of warm air from the south to rival that of late September 2011

BUT

It comes about as a result of LP flattening the HP block. For one thing, that often gets scaled down until it fails to occur at all. For another, it would probably set up a marked drop in temperatures in association with a mid-Atlantic ridge later on, probably counteracting the warm spell. I guess.

So... not too much to worry about I hope!

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Be interesting to see how the models resolve the block to the East - not shown to any particular extent but always a possibility of something warm and wet setting in if the HP stays around and weather systems run aground over the UK. Seem to remember this happening a couple of years ago at the end of October, where a very wet final week or so pushed rain totals from below average to above.

Not much interest actually shown at the moment, although mild and dry = decent autumn cycling commuting and not a lot of wood burnt or heating used. Boring but inexpensive

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Well just got in from a day out and looked at the models and almost fell off my chair! Some exceptional Autumn warmth coming up if they are to be believed.

Looks like we may be able to test out the "warm October, cold winter" theory once and for all this year if these models verify.

Could be looking at low to mid 20s in mid October in any sunnier spells. Stunning.

 

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Phew.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/ecm.htm

This will save on the heating bills.

 

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Pretty sure we tested it out in October 2011, which was very warm and was followed by er... A mild winter.

Fair enough....I don't recall that winter as I was in Australia for most of it....But I bow to your memory and knowledge!

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Some absolutely stunning charts out there! 🤤 🤤 No autumn chill there. Every passing day eats a further day in and a further day closer to next spring 😁

Don't worry, cold blooders, I'm sure there will be some cool weather at some stage 😉

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Certainly no concern from me regarding cold weather. Happy to wait another 6 weeks and have some more pleasant autumnal weather in the meantime.

ECM 12z ensemble looks decent - little rain beyond this week's potential deluge and reasonable temperatures.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html 

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There were some warm days in Oct 2011 , remember being on Bournemouth beach for the Mother outlaws 60th. I wouldn't say the Winter that followed was mild though , we had snowfall here in Banbury, enough to cllose work for 2 days

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Just saying a quick thanks to those nice comments regarding my studies in Reading - I can't wait to get into the thick of it

Will the 00z runs develop ECM's idea of an exceptionally warm southerly, or stick with something closer to GFS' Atlantic onslaught running up against a block some way to our east?

Soon we will know

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Here's the Met Office summary for winter 2011/12

Mean temperatures over the UK were 0.6 °C above average during December, 1.3 °C above in January and 0.7 °C above in February. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 4.5 °C, much milder than the last three winters, and comparable with several other mild winters since 2000.

Here's the Met Office summary for October 201

The mean temperature was 2.0 °C above the 1971–2000 average, resulting in provisionally the warmest October since 2006 and the eighth warmest in the last 100 years.

That's just one example of course, but a clear (and recent) reminder that a warm October does not mean a cold winter to follow. I'm pretty sure there were comments October two years ago along the lines of this should prove the warm October, cold winter theory once and for all. It doesn't mean that a warm October won't be followed by a cold winter, just that it evidently doesn't guarantee it (and is perhaps another nail in the pattern matching coffin).

Never agreed wih Pattern matching

Thanks for the facts , it might have been mild but here in Banbury we have doen well the last 4 years for snowfall

Thanks SF

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

HP dominating but at least temps are lowering

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn30017.png

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Good morning everyone. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 1st 2013.

All models show the start of October the same as September left off with a warm and moist SE flow covering the UK. Troughs of low pressure from a Low to the West of the UK will continue to swing slowly NE across Britain weakening substantially as they do so. Rain could be heavy in the SW but lighter and more intermittent and occasional elsewhere. On Thursday it still looks a more organised and potentially heavy period of rain will move North across all areas before a change to fresher and cleaner air arrives from the West on Friday reaching all but Scotland through the day. Saturday then sees England and Wales dry and bright with sunny spells in the South and East with more cloudy weather in the NW with some rain or showers still.

GFS then shows the rest of the run with changeable conditions but with a lot of dry weather to be enjoyed. Northern and Western areas are shown to be prone to be cloudy at times with outbreaks of rain and fresh SW winds as lows and troughs swing by from the West while the South and East see much less rain and long dry periods under high pressure. Temperatures will sometimes be warm especially early next week and again late in the run though it will become cooler for a time perhaps with fog at night inland.

UKMO shows High pressure close to SE England early next week with light winds for all and dry and bright weather for most areas away from the far NW where more cloud, a slightly fresher SW breeze could give rise to a little rain here at times.

GEM keeps High pressure close enough to South and SE Britain to ward off most troughs and Low pressure areas meaning a largely dry and sometimes bright and warm spell is likely to be maintained in the South and East of England and Wales while Northern and Western Britain keep more cloud and occasional rain but even here some drier, brighter and mild spells are shown.

NAVGEM too shows a High pressure ridged across the UK from the East early next week with fine and dry conditions likely with just the far NW at risk of any rain. Fog and mist overnight could be an issue though in this profile with rather a lot of cloud at times trapped in the airflow so moderately warm conditions rather than anything exceptionally warm looks most likely.

ECM has reduced it's exceptionally high uppers shown in its midday offering yesterday. Nevertheless High pressure still arrives at the weekend and extends through next week with just a brief cloudy blip midweek when a little rain is possible, chiefly towards the North and West. Temperatures would remain very respectable through the period with no risk of frost and in fact temperatures could rise further by the end of the run as a warm Continental South or SE flow wafts up from Southern Europe late next week.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing remotely very wet or windy in the next two weeks with a lot of dry and warm weather in the South after this week. The North as usual do see some rain and occasional very breezy conditions but nowhere looks like experiencing anything nasty beyond this week with frost looking very unlikely as is widespread fog. Gales look very unlikely too away from the far NW.

The Jet Stream blowing to the South of the UK currently migrates North later in the weekend following a period when it falls slack and diffuse. It then settles in a NE direction across or just to the NW of Scotland next week with the UK remaining very much on the mild side.

In Summary it seems the persistence of High pressure which has dominated the Summer to the SW and latterly to the East and now expected to the SE will continue to rule the roost across the UK in the foreseeable future keeping the UK locked in a mild and sometimes warm South or SW flow with it's close proximity keeping any meaningful rain beyond this week well away from most of the UK. With High pressure seemingly not allowing the Jet Stream South very much after this week it means that a warm Autumn could well be on the cards unless the pattern breaks soon and that looks unlikely at the moment as the Atlantic looks quite weak for this time of the year with the development of major storm systems looking relatively few at the moment and in any event steered away North by strong High pressure areas at Southerly latitudes.

Transcript taken from: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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Needs a good Hurricane to kick start Autumn -  but I dont think anything is brewing in the tropics yet !

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Over time a continental feed will become increasingly cooler and it will have to be a SW or southerly feed by later October to really bring the warmth. Still, on the plus side I wonder if this may all be tied in to the abnormally large amount of early snowcover over Eastern Siberia - our persistent warm plume is keeping even western Russia cold. Only one ingredient granted for Winter but interesting none the less:

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm

 

Back to MO and the current blocked situation looks set well into next week, temperatures of 14 or 15c will feel cold by comparison to current temperatures if they occur. Great for Matty though as he said last night if you want the warmth to continue and want to save on the heating bills.

 

It was indeed mild overall but there was a cold spell in February 2012. I remember there was snow on the ground in Hampshire the day of my daughter's christening (Feb 12th). The day before saw the coldest February minimum in England since 1986 when it reached -18.3C at Chesham (courtesy of http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2012_weather.htm ).

 

So also remember that even a "mild" winter can have some decent cold snaps. 

 

Anyway we have just ordered a new woodburner but it won't be installed till the end of the month so it can please stay warm until then!

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Warm looking ecm mean.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

Made the point alot better than I did Rob

Nice to see you joining the log burner brigade

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very dry for the south later on.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html