Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday September 29th 2013.
All models show an unsettled week to come as Low pressure moves slowly North over the Eastern Atlantic to the West of Britain. Warm winds from the SE will veer more towards the SW by the end of the week as fronts cross steadily East and North through the week. There will be rain at times all week in the SW and this will extend to the drier Northern and Eastern regions too by the middle or end of the week. Thursday looks a particularly nasty day for some SE areas as a secondary Low moves NNE across these areas with some prolonged, heavy and thundery rain likely for a time. By Friday clearer, fresher and Westerly winds will move across all areas late in the week with a sunshine and showers mix, heaviest in the West.
GFS then shows next weekend as a drier phase across England and Wales as a ridge of High pressure crosses close to SE Britain. It's not too long after a few days though before this collapses away South and fronts feed there way South over the UK with a deep Low forming in situ near the British Isles with strong winds and progressively colder conditions before the end of the run with showers or longer spells of rain then with snow on the Northern mountains.
UKMO tonight at the close of it's run shows High pressure over Iberia and France with a SW flow blowing over the UK. the north and West would be mild and cloudy and breezy with occasional rain and drizzle while the South and East sees a lot of cloud too but largely fine weather with temperatures on the warm side of average especially in the SE where some brighter spells are likely.
GEM shows a fully fledged anticyclone developing over the UK next weekend with fine and dry conditions with reasonably warm daytime conditions but chilly nights with fog problems likely. Towards the end of the run High pressure weakens and slides away East with a return to cloudier conditions with occasional rain to SW Britain, heavy and thundery in places.
NAVGEM tries to build High pressure into the UK next weekend without too much success with the SW winds keen to survive with further outbreaks of rain in the North and West at times and this extending to areas further South later for a time before pressure builds in from the West late in the run.
ECM shows a warm and drier interlude for the South and East next weekend as a ridge moves in from the SW. However, Low pressure moves back in from the West late in the run with rain or showers for all again.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show above average uppers for the next two weeks though only marginally so rather than the well above average uppers we have seen of late. The trend is also shown that supports a drier spell next weekend and into the following week in the South before things turn more unsettled again at the end of the run.
The Jet Stream can only be accurately predicted up to a week ahead of the present at the moment as the extended outlook period changes with every run. In the meantime the flow continues to move East to the South of the UK for a few days which then diverts further North in response to the Low pressure moving North through this week and High pressure building to the South and SE next weekend.
In Summary the weather remains on a similar course to this morning with an unsettled week to come before a brief respite for southern and eastern areas before a return to more unsettled conditions reappear later in the second week. Having said all that there will be a lot of respectable if not perfect weather considering we are into October on Tuesday with some dry and fine conditions mixed in with occasional rainfall which in itself will not be noteworthy add the absence of any severe gales, frosts or fog then I don't think we need to complain too much on tonight's outputs.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset