Good morning. Here is this morning's account of the midnight outputs supplies by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 9th 2013.
All models show colder air sweeping South down over the UK today reaching all areas by midnight tonight following a band of showers. Thereafter the rest of the week and weekend are cold and rather showery days in the East where gales may affect Eastern Coastal Counties from the North tomorrow. The North and West become largely fine and dry with bright days and chilly nights with some frost in places. In the SE and South cloud will invade from the East through Friday and the weekend as the Low to the SE interacts with the Easterly flow on the underside of a large High North of Scotland bringing occasional rain, dull and misty conditions to these parts where it will feel distinctly raw, especially when compared with conditions of late.
GFS then shows slack Low pressure over Southern Britain well into next week with occasional rain and overcast conditions most likely though the cold wind will fall out early in the week so it may feel less chilly. The North stays dry and fine under a ridge still clinging on from the North which extends further South midweek away from the SW. Later in the week some unusually cold air over Northern Europe becomes scooped up by Low pressure from the Atlantic which sets up a more mobile airflow with Low pressure close to the NW sending troughs NE across Britain in a blustery SW wind. A temperature division is shown across Britain on this morning's output with the South becoming less cold while the North stays chilly with the dividing line edging South at the end of the run with Low pressure by then down to the SW.
UKMO today continues to maintain the chilly conditions of the weekend going across the UK early next week with a lot of cloud and occasional rain over England and Wales while the North stays dry with the odd bright spell and light winds by then for all.
GEM shows a complex pattern developing next week as the breezy and unsettled weekend in the South gives way to drier and quiet weather for a few days. However, Atlantic fronts will be trying to push up from the SW with winds slowly settling South-west or South with occasional rain gradually extending NE to all parts late next week. Average temperatures would be likely in the South then while the North stay rather chilly at times.
NAVGEM keeps cloudy and cool weather in the South well into next week as shallow Low pressure maintains it's position over Southern England with occasional rain. Some very cold air flirts with the East for a time midweek with a trough moving NE into SW areas with occasional rain here by soon after midweek.
ECM today shows much slacker conditions developing next week with no one pressure system having overall control of the weather over the UK. As a result it will be a very quiet and benign pattern of weather similar to recently but with temperatures much lower with some quite overcast, rather chilly and misty conditions looking likely with the chance of a shower. In any clearances in the cloud overnight extensive fog would readily form and would be slow to clear in the morning's.
The GFS Ensembles show a rather cold period for the next 4-5 days, especially over the SE where it quickly becomes unsettled with rain at times. The rest of the run shows temperatures gradually returning to normal with rain at times for all. The operational was a milder member of the pack than the average.
The Jet Stream shows the main flow well North over the Arctic while an off shoot from it dives down over the UK and sets up a circulation close to the SE for a couple of days. Then a Southern arm of the Jet crossing the Atlantic becomes the dominant player as the flow to the North weakens away. The flow then absorbs the Low cell to the SE and flows across or South of Britain later next week.
In Summary the weather is turning colder as I type. Northerly winds around a developing High to the West and then North of the UK will feed cold North then NE and East winds across Southern areas. The Low slipping South to the East then pulls West across Southern England with some rain at the weekend. As we move further out into the new week conditions look likely to become rather grey and benign with the chance of a little rain still and temperatures largely still suppressed. The Atlantic is waiting in the wings and there are some suggestions that this could engage with the cold air bottled to the North strengthening the Low pressure areas and pushing troughs, cloud, wind and rain across the UK later next week while other output keeps things fairly uninspiring and boring meteorologically speaking with light winds, plenty of cloud and some areas of mist and fog to complete the gloom in quite cool conditions at the surface.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset