http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1

cant help thinking back over the years and seeing a chart like the above turn into a cold snowy n/easterly as energy slips away.

Profile at the Arctic and greenland very good indeed maybe a cool/cold outbreak later on we will have to wait and c.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0&carte=1

Negative tilt cold air rebulds to the n/e just need energy to slip away.

very very close

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

lovely profile again

goodness me meltdown

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

T240 Nice with slumping jet poetry in motion

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's view of the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 10th 2013.

All models follow a similar course of events to this morning with High pressure to the North and Low pressure over or close to the South and these will be the dominating factors of the UK weather over the coming days. The North and West will see some dry and bright weather with average day temperatures but cold nights with a touch of frost. Southern and Eastern parts will stay cloudier and breezy with some spells of rain at times with the wind easing by the end of the weekend.

GFS then shows very similar conditions at the start of next week before a SW flow picks up carrying increasingly acttive troughs in across the UK so that by the end of next week all areas will of seen milder weather but with wind and rain frequent visitors to most places as subsequent troughs pass by. In the latter stages of the run Low pressure becomes a dominant force with just the briefest of ridges allowing a short drier spell. temperatures may drift downwards again towards the end of the run.

UKMO tonight shows Southerly winds strengthening through the middle of next week with rain bearing fronts moving slowly East into the West of the UK by then. Temperatures would recover to near average following the colder weekend and start to the week gone before.

GEM tonight is very similar to this morning with Atlantic wind and fronts crossing the UK through the week lifting temperatures at the expense of wind and rain. The end of the run is a little alarming in that for the second run in a row it shows a powerful ex-tropical storm off NW Spain destined for the UK with heavy rain and severe gales a distinct possibility should it evolve.

NAVGEM is much less dramatic with a slow trend towards Atlantic SW winds, milder temperatures and rain extending to all areas by the end of next week.

ECM is distinctly disturbed tonight and offers the potential of it's own to develop some powerful storms as the cold air to the North engages mild Atlantic SW winds. On tonight's version of this engagement the UK is right in the path of depressions moving East or NE with active troughs bringing strong winds and rain to all areas at times. Southern Britain for the most part remains on the mild side of these depressions while Northern areas become jolly chilly late in the week and next weekend with NE winds and potential snowfall to quite modest levels in the far North should it verify as shown.

The GFS Ensembles show a disturbed spell of weather to come with wind and rain at times for all. Temperatures will return to average levels or above at times in the South in the SW breeze. The operational's cold plunge at the end was a cold outlier with most members going for something at least a little warmer but with some rain at times.

The Jet Stream shows the flow streaking South over the UK with a cut off weak circulation near SE Britain for several days. A new arm of the Jet moves across the Atlantic on collision course for the UK next week with not much of a cohesive pattern showing thereafter.

In Summary tonight things have not changed much since this morning with the continuing theme of cloud and rain crossing NE over Britain from the middle of next week. In the meantime the rather cold and breezy weather with occasional rain in the South and East lasts until the early week while the North stays dry and bright through the same time period. Longer term and there looks like there could be some deepening of the unsettled weather across the UK as Low pressure deepens it's grip over the UK as cold air to the North engages these systems with the risk being run of the potential for some chilly weather to appear across Northern areas from about 10 days or so.

Transcrript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin.

 Northern areas become jolly chilly late in the week and next weekend with NE winds and potential snowfall to quite modest levels in the far North should it verify as shown.

nice run from ecm with that profile.

cant resist sorry

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101012/ECH1-240.GIF?10-0

Somebody check the whereabouts of YD

The big change tonight compared to the 00z output is that energy no longer feeds across the Arctic and down into the Atlantic from day 6/7. Instead it piles up across Siberia and into Scandinavia, with some epic charts resulting... at least in terms of the synoptics.

Hopefully the weather is just practising for 40 days later

A decent end to ECM , imagine that chart in D J or F

I'm still of the oppinion that if the pattern remains constistant we should expect to see snowfall to lower levels around the 22nd which would be 4 days earlier than last year and probably the earliest in 100 if not 200 years. I'm getting a bit ahead of myself here, but its definately worth watching, all the macroscopic factors exist to realise the potential. We will not know the microscopic factors until much closer. I still think its unlikely, but considerably more likely then when I last posted. 

To northern parts of scotland snow in late october is not that rare, but to lower parts of England I'm sure it would qualify as the earliest in over 100 years if it fell on the 22nd, especially if it gets south of Northern England. 

I agree, yes, that almost anythiing could happen at this range - which is why this is not a forecast by any means. However most years you could basically rule out any chance of this happening, wheras this year it looks possible (i.e still very unlikely), if not probable. Long range forecasting is tenuous but there is nothing wrong with looking at patterns, and these are the some of the best charts you can see at this range if you are looking for snowfall. 

But yes, to all guests frequenting this forum: THIS IS NOT A FORECAST, and please don't send my comments to the daily express. 

18z continues the trend with snow showers in the northern isles by the 18th! 

Good morning folks. From a chilly West Country this morning comes today's report on the midnight outputs supplied by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 11th 2013.

All models continue the pattern as before with a cold and strong NE flow over Southern Britain and High pressure to the North ensuring much lighter winds in the North with brighter skies. The South and East of England remain at risk of outbreaks of rain at times lasting through today and the weekend before dying out and becoming restricted to the far East by Monday. Elsewhere the dry conditions in the North are shown to extend further South for a time early next week before all models show a freshening South and SW flow taking us into the start of what looks to be a milder and wet spell.

GFS starts this process on Tuesday with all areas under mild Atlantic South-westerlies by midweek with a trough carrying a spell of rain transferring NE across all areas introducing this theme. Later in the week the attendant depression out to the NW sinks South and East closer in towards the UK bringing further spells of rain or showers across all areas but maintaining mild and breezy weather. This windy and wet theme continues for a time in part 2 of the run with the North seeing an incursion of colder conditions for a time before High pressure brings quieter and Autumnal conditions late in the run with temperatures easing back towards normal.

UKMO today also shows wet and windy SW winds over all areas by the middle of the week with a depression to the NW. Temperatures would become mild for most, especially in any brighter spells which develop in the sheltered East.

GEM for the third time shows an ex-tropical storm down to the SW at the end of the run threatening the UK while before that happens a spell of sustained wet and windy conditions in association with a succession of Lows and fronts move NE across the UK in strong SW winds and temperatures generally on the mild side of average.

NAVGEM too joins the set in bringing milder Atlantic winds across the UK through the middle of next week with unsettled, wet and windy weather strengthening it's grip over the UK by the weekend as Low pressure edges in closer to the UK from the West and NW.

ECM too shows a broad Westerly or South-westerly pattern developing late next week with spells of rain mixed with a short drier spell in the South to start next weekend. Temperatures in the South will be largely mild while the North may see colder conditions at times. The run ends with a deep Low to the NW and a strong but very mild SW flow with rain straddling the UK on a wavering cold front lying somewhere over the mainland.

The GFS Ensembles show a typical Autumn wet period coming up with this weekends rather cold and potentially wet conditions in the South-east giving way to more SW based weather with above average uppers but offset by spells of rain at times in strong winds.

The Jet Stream shows the flow arched over the UK well North of the UK currently. This arm weakens and dissolves away early next week at the expense of a new arm travelling across the Atlantic towards the UK where it undulates over and to the South over the rest of the period.

In Summary the weather is set to become more typically Autumnal nationwide. After a few more days of quiet weather in the North and cloudy and cool weather in the South with some rain it looks like all areas will develop strong SW winds and spells of rain along with above average temperatures from the middle of next week. The rain will be heaviest in the North and West but all areas look likely to see some heavy rain with just short drier spells under transient ridges when it could become briefly rather colder at times in the far North.

Traanscript taken from:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Generally an unsettled picture this morning as you would expect at this time of year.

Inconsistent modelling of the Arctic lately, with ECM having particularly wild swings regarding where the energy goes. This morning we're back to it spreading out across the Pole and seeping down into the Atlantic.

GFS keeps it more towards Siberia but the longwave pattern keeps us on the mild side of things until a little way into FI.

Now's the time to be looking out for trough disruption and/or adjustments south in the jet stream track.
The middle part of next week, when the broad trough advances from the west, is a key period, as that is currently modelled to be consolidated and strong enough to curve the jet stream NE and generate higher pressure across Europe, but should the trough nature be altered to something more disrupted, then we could see the jet tracking more into Europe.

Past experience tells me that such corrections are very much on the cards, but by no means guaranteed

I Like NAVGEM  with its mildness and wetness middle of next week..So Thankyou Martin for your watchful output.

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

Oct-Dec Look-Ahead;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

All JFF of course.

Indeed looking very wet, almost a washout for the next week - 10 days especially for the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I can't find it lol I have the  " Turning milder but wet later next week"

It is more than likely me

Looks very unsettled

Good evening folks. Here is the Friday evening look at the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 11th 2013.

All models show a NW/SE split tonight with the NW of Britain seeing the best of the dry and bright weather with temperatures lasting through the weekend. In the SE and East a small but dominant Low pressure area will ensure much more unsettled conditions here with rain, heavy at times swirling around in the cyclonic winds. Early next week the Low in the SE fills up and slowly moves away East. At the same time Low pressure in the Atlantic sends a trough East and NE across the Atlantic and across the UK with rain and fresh to strong but milder winds for all areas.

GFS then shows unsettled conditions throughout the remainder of the run with Low pressure areas moving East across the UK with attendant troughs spilling East too giving all areas some copious rainfall with temperatures largely on the mild side of average but there could be temporary incursions of cooler weather at times in the North.

UKMO shows the UK under a strong SW flow by next Thursday with cloud and spells of rain in temperatures well up to average and probably above.

GEM shows a very unsettled and windy spell from the middle of next week with West or SW winds strong at times carrying periods of rain, heavy in places. Once again the ex tropical storm is still down to the SW at the end of the run, likely to influence the weather in the days following the end of the run with further wind and rain.

NAVGEM shows Low pressure anchored over the Atlantic later next week with a SW flow delivering spells of rain and showers in mild but strong SW winds.

ECM has Low pressure stretched firmly across the Uk later next week before within 24 hours much of the UK portion of this has dissolved into a High pressuure ridge wwhich builds further close to the East of the UK late in the run. After a very wet period late next week better weather arrives almost out of the blue with a fine and dry weekend for many next weekend followed by a strengthening Southerly flow and thicker cloud edging in from the West. 

The GFS Ensembles show broadly fairly average temperatures over the coming few weeks, perhaps bordering on rather mild at times, that is after this weekends chilly feel in the South. There will be a fair amount of rain at times too with winds quite strong too from the SW as next week and the week after passes.

The Jet Stream is currently flowing well North leaving Greenland across to Northern Scandinavia. Over the next few days this weakens substantially and hands the baton to a new arm at much more Southerly latitudes across the Atlantic towards the South of the UK later next week. It then looks reluctant to move far from this position for the remainder of the output.

In Summary tonight the general consensus is for a spell of mild and wet weather to arrive by the middle of next week with some strong SW winds for most. ECM has a strange transformation within 24 hours late next week from wet and windy Friday to dry and fine over the weekend, not sure how that evolution came about but most other output keeps Low pressure firmly in control throughout all of the length of their outputs with no real cold weather in sight.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Alot of cold air building to the north on these runs, but a slightly more active atlantic. Tbh I am really not suprised the models are unusure whether to go full on -ve NAO, it often takes 2 or 3 attempts for the lows to finally sink south which is why I said 22nd might be a likely date for a wintry snap. But note that the cold air is extremely well placed, and blocking is still consistantly present in the sub arctic regions. 

Hi everyone. Here is today's morning report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday october 12th 2013.

All models show an unsettled spell in the SE for the next few days as a small but vigorous Low settles near East Anglia over the next 48 hours giving a small but marked area of heavy rain here from tonight until Monday. Other areas though quite cloudy stay dry and bright and the cool wind will slowly die down from Southern areas though staying breezy in the East near the Low. By Tuesday all areas see a brief more settled interlude before Atlantic troughs whisk their way NE across all areas midweek accompanied by fresh to strong but milder SW winds and rain followed by showers in the West later.

GFS then moves on with some very wet weather at times gradually becoming more confined to the South as the North sees colder air from the North slide down on the Eastern flank of high pressure over the North Atlantic. Southern areas continue with rain in association with Low pressure to the SW with a slow trend to drier conditions here too as a ridge slips South. It would become chilly everywhere with some frost and fog in the North for a time. Late in the run Atlantic winds regain control with some wind and rain at times returning especially in the north. It would become somewhat milder and more windy again generally.

UKMO today shows next Friday with Thursday's rain and showers having cleared East with most places under a weak ridge ahead of more rain and strong winds looking like attacking the UK over next weekend. It would become relatively mild if windy.

GEM today shows a very unsettled period later next week with a potentially stormy period at the end of the run as it continues to model an ex-tropical storm getting wound up in the general Low pressure circulation near the UK giving rise to a lot of rain and some potentially damaging gusts of wind to the SW later should it evolve. Though mild for most and certainly in the South the North will become colder towards the end of the period with some snowfall on the mountains of Scotland possible.

NAVGEM also has Low pressure becoming entrenched near the West of the UK by this time next week with troughs on the previous days having brought mild and windy weather with rain or showers continuing well into the weekend and beyond.

ECM this morning also shows a unsettled end to next week with rain at times before it shows a more believable split in low pressure systems next weekend as pressure rises over the UK from both the North and the South with a quieter spell developing over the North especially next weekend though with a trough shown straddling the South this morning further rain is likely here in lighter winds than the days previous. It would also turn somewhat cooler briefly with a fog risk in the North for a time before all areas become milder and wetter again under SW winds at the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles look typically Autumnal now with spells of rain shown for all regions throughout the two weeks. Some of the rain could be heavy with just brief brighter spells perhaps becoming more evident for the far NE late in the run. It will be windy at times and temperatures will be generally close to average for mid October or a shade above at times with no reliably cold weather shown as yet.

The Jet Stream currently flowing East over the Arctic weakens and relocates much further South through next week as the Atlantic Lows move in. It then holds over or to the South of the UK for some considerable time thereafter.

In Summary it continues to look as though we are all going to receive a spell of typically wet and windy weather which once again this year has failed to show it's hand much thus far this Autumn. So with SW winds and Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic and eventually over the UK all areas can expect some heavy rain and showers at times with temperatures well up to average if not above at times, offset by the rain. There are some drier interludes programmed such as from ECM and conversely a major storm system is still shown by GEM to affect the SW in a week or so with potential sever gales and is certainly one to watch. So all in all for once I can report a typically Autumn spell of weather of the potentially wet and wild variety looking likely although I concede 'wild' may be stretching it a bit far.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm