Good evening folks. Here is the Friday evening look at the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 11th 2013.
All models show a NW/SE split tonight with the NW of Britain seeing the best of the dry and bright weather with temperatures lasting through the weekend. In the SE and East a small but dominant Low pressure area will ensure much more unsettled conditions here with rain, heavy at times swirling around in the cyclonic winds. Early next week the Low in the SE fills up and slowly moves away East. At the same time Low pressure in the Atlantic sends a trough East and NE across the Atlantic and across the UK with rain and fresh to strong but milder winds for all areas.
GFS then shows unsettled conditions throughout the remainder of the run with Low pressure areas moving East across the UK with attendant troughs spilling East too giving all areas some copious rainfall with temperatures largely on the mild side of average but there could be temporary incursions of cooler weather at times in the North.
UKMO shows the UK under a strong SW flow by next Thursday with cloud and spells of rain in temperatures well up to average and probably above.
GEM shows a very unsettled and windy spell from the middle of next week with West or SW winds strong at times carrying periods of rain, heavy in places. Once again the ex tropical storm is still down to the SW at the end of the run, likely to influence the weather in the days following the end of the run with further wind and rain.
NAVGEM shows Low pressure anchored over the Atlantic later next week with a SW flow delivering spells of rain and showers in mild but strong SW winds.
ECM has Low pressure stretched firmly across the Uk later next week before within 24 hours much of the UK portion of this has dissolved into a High pressuure ridge wwhich builds further close to the East of the UK late in the run. After a very wet period late next week better weather arrives almost out of the blue with a fine and dry weekend for many next weekend followed by a strengthening Southerly flow and thicker cloud edging in from the West.
The GFS Ensembles show broadly fairly average temperatures over the coming few weeks, perhaps bordering on rather mild at times, that is after this weekends chilly feel in the South. There will be a fair amount of rain at times too with winds quite strong too from the SW as next week and the week after passes.
The Jet Stream is currently flowing well North leaving Greenland across to Northern Scandinavia. Over the next few days this weakens substantially and hands the baton to a new arm at much more Southerly latitudes across the Atlantic towards the South of the UK later next week. It then looks reluctant to move far from this position for the remainder of the output.
In Summary tonight the general consensus is for a spell of mild and wet weather to arrive by the middle of next week with some strong SW winds for most. ECM has a strange transformation within 24 hours late next week from wet and windy Friday to dry and fine over the weekend, not sure how that evolution came about but most other output keeps Low pressure firmly in control throughout all of the length of their outputs with no real cold weather in sight.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset