Very interesting charts appearing at the moment. As the charts come into the 144h and below range, the models are tending to correct the jet further south and more W to E rather than SW to NE. That is resulting in less of a ridge across Europe and, when combined with disrupted low pressure areas, it allows the Arctic air to brush the far north at times.
To me it looks like a battle will then evolve between a feisty Atlantic and a developing ridge across the Arctic, possibly of Aleutian origin. The GFS 06z run shows the potential very well at the end of FI.
I'm glad that the changes I anticipated when making my CET prediction are there to be seen in the model output, but I'm very concerned about the resilliance of the Atlantic as it tries to drive the jet NE across the UK, throwing a lot of 'warm' (compared to the LTA) TM air at us. I'm looking for predominantly below average temperatures from here on out... I'd be lucky!
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser