Unsettled sums up the runs this morning than.

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Models are saying it is now Autumn...

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

Bit of a temp split there

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Yes, and the 06z GFS op run supports that trend along with the ECM data. With an area of high pressure to our north the northern parts of the UK, or parts of Scotland at least, could be rather cold in a week or so while many other areas, especially in the south could be rather mild or indeed pleasantly warm.

Perhaps it's just me but the extent of blocking to our north seems very unusual at a time of the year that we frequently having lows tracking eastwards in the area between Scotland and Greenland/Iceland. If that continues over the coming months things could get very interesting indeed.

Will it? I have no idea!

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Very interesting charts appearing at the moment. As the charts come into the 144h and below range, the models are tending to correct the jet further south and more W to E rather than SW to NE. That is resulting in less of a ridge across Europe and, when combined with disrupted low pressure areas, it allows the Arctic air to brush the far north at times.

To me it looks like a battle will then evolve between a feisty Atlantic and a developing ridge across the Arctic, possibly of Aleutian origin. The GFS 06z run shows the potential very well at the end of FI.

I'm glad that the changes I anticipated when making my CET prediction are there to be seen in the model output, but I'm very concerned about the resilliance of the Atlantic as it tries to drive the jet NE across the UK, throwing a lot of 'warm' (compared to the LTA) TM air at us. I'm looking for predominantly below average temperatures from here on out... I'd be lucky!

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If we end up with an excess of TM air - we could be looking at excessive rainfall which could cause some flooding. That I think is of concern.

 

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going...... going...

New thread coming in couple of minutes

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