Hi everyone. Here is the Sunday report on the weather events the models are throwing at us in the UK for the coming 10-14 days using data supplied by the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday October 13th 2013.
The General Situation. All models show a Low pressure area close to Eastern England with areas of rain, some heavy spiralling South and West across England and Wales. One such belt is currently covering Eastern England and will extend SW through the day to many other Southern districts. The North and far West will see dry and occasionally brighter weather with some mist and fog by night. Through the coming few days the trend for the slow moving Low over the East to fill and dissolve away remains with less in the way of rain and wind for the SE with all areas drying out for a time if staying rather cloudy. The Atlantic will be dominated by Low pressure by midweek throwing troughs North and East across the UK with a strengthening SW wind. This will be followed by scattered showers by Thursday with some sunny intervals before another series of troughs and parent Low move steadily in from the West. It will never be cold through this week with all areas away from the very far North keeping mild Southerly breezes.
GFS then shows a sustained period when troughs remain straddled over the UK with reinforcements being fed up from the South and SW at times. This means it looks like Central areas especially could see some persistent and heavy rain while Southern areas too see some of this but with a few brighter spells in between. The far North may see less rain, more intermittently with a slightly cooler SE breeze here. Through the latter stages of the run start from early next week staying very unsettled and somewhat colder as cyclonic winds cover the UK bringing in colder uppers off higher latitudes of the North Atlantic while maintaining heavy rain and showers at times for all areas. With all the cloud and rain frost and fog on a widespread scale seem unlikely.
UKMO shows it's next weekend charts with a mild Southerly cyclonic flow in association with Low pressure covering the Atlantic. All areas would be subject to rain or showers at times in temperatures at average or above average levels everywhere.
GEM also has Low pressure in complete domination over the period from the end of this coming week until the end of it's run. While northern and NE parts may see a drier and colder interlude for a time the emphasis remains on troughs stretched across Central areas with rain for many with a further surge of mild Atlantic South-westerlies next weekend bringing further spells of rain and showers NE to all with some persistent and heavy rain at times for almost anywhere in mild SW winds. It may become somewhat fresher late in the run as the Low pressure complex formerly over the East Atlantic and UK finally fills and moves away East.
NAVGEM also has the UK dominated by Low pressure to the West with mild SW winds over England and Wales and rather chillier Easterly winds over the far North. All areas would suffer spells of heavy rain at times in blustery winds with just brief drier spells in between.
ECM shows a cooler and brighter interlude towards the end of this working week as colder air flirts with the NE for a time. Through next weekend and the following week Low pressure over the Atlantic will displace this at the expense of Low pressure troughs moving up from the South and SW with further spells of rain and mild and fresh winds from the South or SW. At the end of the run the Atlantic is dominated by Low pressure with the UK looking down the barrel of a wet and breezy spells lasting well through the following week but we may have to keep an eye on High pressure to the NE bringing cooler air from the SE into NE areas at times.
The GFS Ensembles continue to support a very average spell of weather for this time of year with cloud, wind and rain all featuring in a large way through the period of the run. Temperatures will be close to average overall with no support for anything notably colder from the output this morning affecting the UK anytime soon.
The Jet Stream continues to be the culprit of the upcoming spell of Atlantic weather as it currently is crossing the Atlantic towards the South of the UK and France later this week. It then looks like maintaining this position give or take a couple of 100 miles over the following period.
In Summary this morning the pattern looks largely similar to that of yesterday with all areas seeing rain at times over the coming two weeks. With Low pressure anchored out in the Atlantic for much of the period and winds from a South or SW point in association with it a lot of average or a little above average temperatures can be expected at ground level though this may well be offset by the wind and rainier spells. Conditions in the far North and NE look somewhat less mild and less wet as High pressure and cool weather to the NE may encroach across these areas at times, holding rain bearing troughs to the South and SW of these areas back but even here no real cold conditions look likely.
Traanscript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset