Everything a bit up in the air then........isn't that always the case?

Normal rules please - on topic etc.    

OK. A new thread and to start it...

Good evening folks. Here is the evening report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Saturday October 12th 2013.

All models continue the theme of Low pressure near SE Britain continuing to feed spells of sometimes heavy rain across Southern and Eastern England and Wales over the next few days with some strong Northerly winds developing on the Western and SW flank of this small but vigorous feature. Elsewhere rather quieter weather will continue with fine and bright days but chilly nights in the NW with patchy mist and fog and a touch of frost in the glens. This drier weather extends to the wetter areas by Tuesday as the Atlantic forces the small Low away East at the expense of increasing South or SW winds with a spell of rain for all followed by a brighter and drier interlude on Thursday as a weak ridge passes East. Temperatures, after the rather cool conditions in the wet weather towards the South and East would recover later next week as winds settle SW.

GFS then shows Low pressure down to the SW edging towards the UK with pulses of heavy rain swinging North and East across the UK in mild Southerly breezes. The Low then fills as we move through the start of week 2 as it crosses the UK with a more Westerly bias settling in after that with rain at times with colder conditions occurring over the North at times as cold fronts pass.

UKMO tonight shows the end of next week Low pressure well anchored out over the Atlantic with Southerly winds bringing spells of sometimes heavy and perhaps thundery rain with the least rain and drier spells most likely to be biased towards the NE of the UK.

GEM tonight shows a very unsettled and wet period later next week with Low pressure well established to the West of the UK with smaller but significant Lows delivering wind and spells of rain for all at times. At last the major storm to the SW has been dropped on tonight's run and a period of fine and very warm conditions for October has been put in it's place which is probably as unlikely as what has been shown of late at that range.

NAVGEM has the UK engaged in a sustained spell of SW winds with rain and showers running NE across the UK on regular occasions through the latter half of next week and the weekend. Despite this the weather would remain mild for all areas.

ECM tonight shows a mild SW flow too with Low pressure out to the West closing in towards the UK as we move out of next weekend and into the start of the following week. There would inevitably be rain at times with some heavy bursts around in a fresh but mild SW wind for all.

The GFS Ensembles state an unsettled spell to come with some copious rainfall events through the period both North and South. With regard to the temperatures they look very average for the main part with some mild days for all but some members offering some colder incursions too.

The Jet Stream currently flowing way North over Iceland and Northern Scandinavia weakens over the coming days before a new arm sets up across the Atlantic and across Southern England from the middle of next week where it generally remains for the reliable time-frame thereafter.

In Summary the pattern is much as this morning with a spell of typical Autumn fayre with wind and rain becoming the dominant features from the middle of next week. There will as always be some drier moments when things cool down a little but at least for now the signs of cold weather knocking on the door of the UK from either the North and North-east in the next week or two has receded.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Not so sure Martin ecm 144 tricky evolution to call trying to bulid under slack high at Scotland, ecm seems be having second thoughts.

very tight call.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Tricky and intresting situation some gfs members like the idea of a n/e outbreak slight switch back tonight I feel

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

My reasons for stating the receding risk of cold was that a few days ago many models were showing cold air flooding across Scandinavia towards NE Britain (and not just GFS) which was showing signs of engaging on the backside of UK depressions giving potential storminess and cold air in their wake. As it is now we are shown a slow moving Low in the Atlantic later next week pumping warm air North over Britain which because that flood of cold air is now not shown as strong the warm air is less impeded and has little trouble extending to all areas for the reliable time period. however, as someone stated in the old thread these warm air masses could provide plenty of copious rainfall in the coming weeks and it's this that shows more precedence over any impending cold potential at present.

ECM highly endorses my thoughts on it's 240 mean from the same run pushing milder air even further NE well north of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Thank God its not Winter yet or there would be some razor blades in action

Get it out of the way now I say

It was only yesterday or the day before ECM was showing a push SW from the NE

Hi everyone. Here is the Sunday report on the weather events the models are throwing at us in the UK for the coming 10-14 days using data supplied by the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday October 13th 2013.

The General Situation. All models show a Low pressure area close to Eastern England with areas of rain, some heavy spiralling South and West across England and Wales. One such belt is currently covering Eastern England and will extend SW through the day to many other Southern districts. The North and far West will see dry and occasionally brighter weather with some mist and fog by night. Through the coming few days the trend for the slow moving Low over the East to fill and dissolve away remains with less in the way of rain and wind for the SE with all areas drying out for a time if staying rather cloudy. The Atlantic will be dominated by Low pressure by midweek throwing troughs North and East across the UK with a strengthening SW wind. This will be followed by scattered showers by Thursday with some sunny intervals before another series of troughs and parent Low move steadily in from the West. It will never be cold through this week with all areas away from the very far North keeping mild Southerly breezes.

GFS then shows a sustained period when troughs remain straddled over the UK with reinforcements being fed up from the South and SW at times. This means it looks like Central areas especially could see some persistent and heavy rain while Southern areas too see some of this but with a few brighter spells in between. The far North may see less rain, more intermittently with a slightly cooler SE breeze here. Through the latter stages of the run start from early next week staying very unsettled and somewhat colder as cyclonic winds cover the UK bringing in colder uppers off higher latitudes of the North Atlantic while maintaining heavy rain and showers at times for all areas. With all the cloud and rain frost and fog on a widespread scale seem unlikely.

UKMO shows it's next weekend charts with a mild Southerly cyclonic flow in association with Low pressure covering the Atlantic. All areas would be subject to rain or showers at times in temperatures at average or above average levels everywhere.

GEM also has Low pressure in complete domination over the period from the end of this coming week until the end of it's run. While northern and NE parts may see a drier and colder interlude  for a time the emphasis remains on troughs stretched across Central areas with rain for many with a further surge of mild Atlantic South-westerlies next weekend bringing further spells of rain and showers NE to all with some persistent and heavy rain at times for almost anywhere in mild SW winds. It may become somewhat fresher late in the run as the Low pressure complex formerly over the East Atlantic and UK finally fills and moves away East.

NAVGEM also has the UK dominated by Low pressure to the West with mild SW winds over England and Wales and rather chillier Easterly winds over the far North. All areas would suffer spells of heavy rain at times in blustery winds with just brief drier spells in between.

ECM shows a cooler and brighter interlude towards the end of this working week as colder air flirts with the NE for a time. Through next weekend and the following week Low pressure over the Atlantic will displace this at the expense of Low pressure troughs moving up from the South and SW with further spells of rain and mild and fresh winds from the South or SW. At the end of the run the Atlantic is dominated by Low pressure with the UK looking down the barrel of a wet and breezy spells lasting well through the following week but we may have to keep an eye on High pressure to the NE bringing cooler air from the SE into NE areas at times.

The GFS Ensembles continue to support a very average spell of weather for this time of year with cloud, wind and rain all featuring in a large way through the period of the run. Temperatures will be close to average overall with no support for anything notably colder from the output this morning affecting the UK anytime soon.

The Jet Stream continues to be the culprit of the upcoming spell of Atlantic weather as it currently is crossing the Atlantic towards the South of the UK and France later this week. It then looks like maintaining this position give or take a couple of 100 miles over the following period.

In Summary this morning the pattern looks largely similar to that of yesterday with all areas seeing rain at times over the coming two weeks. With Low pressure anchored out in the Atlantic for much of the period and winds from a South or SW point in association with it a lot of average or a little above average temperatures can be expected at ground level though this may well be offset by the wind and rainier spells. Conditions in the far North and NE look somewhat less mild and less wet as High pressure and cool weather to the NE may encroach across these areas at times, holding rain bearing troughs to the South and SW of these areas back but even here no real cold conditions look likely.

Traanscript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Thank you Martin.

More wet than dry seems likely.

May be like that until next month..

as soon as the euro high was modelled to enlarge, all bets on a early season really cold spell were off. hopefully, for those of a cold bias, those berne heights will not be there in a couple of months time.

Well given the wonderful summer we've enjoyed, I guess an extended period of zonality was as predictable as the after effects of a Vindaloo curry.

There is no zonality just slow moving areas of low pressure with the blocking to the north for the coming week ahead. Could stay that way for quite sometime.

Reflected in http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

which shows a long tongue of above average rainfall extending from the SW approaches up into central S England for week 2 of its forecast. A strong suggestion of trailing fronts getting stuck.

Doc- I think you have an outside chance of seeing some white stuff this week- Friday ISH-

S

The arctic airmass is certainly getting into the shetland islands, I think they will see snow showers if no where else does. That warm front across scotland, under light air could also get snow down to lower levels as warm fronts often do. However I think that is a little optimistic given how strong the winds are supposed to be, that being said it is definately an ana front that makes it more likely; certainly the scottish hills will get a dumping.  

Good evening folks. Here is my interpretation of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Sunday October 13th 2013.

All models follow the same path as this morning with Low pressure over Eastern England continuing to spiral rain and showers West and South over Southern Britain for another 24 hours or so. Over NW Britain the weather will stay dry at least for another 48hrs or so before all models support a change to SW winds and rain on Wednesday as Low pressure over the Atlantic push troughs up from the SW. Through the latter stages of the week Wednesday's rain will have become lodged across the far North where conditions will be on the cold side while Thursdays sees scattered showers over England and Wales in pleasantly mild conditions. Friday sees more fronts move up from the SW with some heavy rain and strong winds for most parts of the UK to end the week.

GFS then shows a steady decline in uppers through next weekend and the following week as Low pressure sources itself from more Northerly latitudes and heads their way towards the UK to set up a potentially stormy period in 10 days or so with gale or severe gales and heavy rain, especially across the South and West.

UKMO tonight shows an unstable SW flow across the UK next weekend with rain at times in many places while temperatures stay well up to average if not above, especially in the South. The far North may see less in the way of rain but also lower temperatures in an East or SE breeze.

GEM goes for engagement of the colder air to the North later this week and could be deemed to be an exception to the group text at the beginning of this report. It spreads the chill down across many areas to reach all but Southern England by Saturday before it is forced North again through the weekend and the following week as Low pressure over the Atlantic pushes milder South and SW winds across all but the far North with plenty of rain at times.

NAVGEM shows Low pressure moving into the UK in a weeks time following several days of wet and windy weather. This theme would continue next weekend with gain the far North probably seeing the least rain and less mild temperatures.

ECM tonight shows Low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic sending repeated bands of rain ad showers NE across the UK decelerating across Scotland. Some areas could see a good deal of rain especially over South and West facing hills and slopes as temperatures stay above average for most away from Northern Scotland.

The GFS Ensembles show a fairly wet theme over the next few weeks. In the South the weather stays mild from most members with little divergence from average or above levels until the late days of the run while for more Northern locations things are far less clear cut with quite a few members showing some cooler options from later this week.

The Jet Stream shows a split flow developing currently with one arm well to the North with another arm travelling East across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain. the Northern arm weakens to insignificance by the end of the week while the Southern arm becomes the dominant player for some time to follow.

In Summary the weather is set to become nationally unsettled with rain or showers at times throughout the output. Most areas look like staying mild and occasionally windy though the incursion of colder air shown by the minority tonight across the North at times cannot be ignored.

Transcript taken from:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013101400/gfs-0-120.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013101400/ECM1-120.GIF

A considerable difference between GFS and ECM for day 5. UKMO is halfway between the two.

The latter two have troughing to the NE closer by, keeping a ridge across Europe from building north and giving the ridge through Iceland more of a say in our weather (ECM more so than UKMO).

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013101400/gfs-0-168.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101400/ECM1-168.GIF?14-12

The void between GFS and ECM grows large by day 7, with UKMO remaining halfway between them. GFS has obliterated the high-latitude ridging while ECM has it holding on nicely. At that stage it makes for the difference between warm rain and mild rain for most of us (but could be chilly in the far north if ECM has it right), but the implications for further down the line are large in terms of how the pattern can evolve.

Good morning. Here is todays morning report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 14th 2013.

All models still show Low pressure over Southern England today. Through tonight the rain and showers circulating this feature thins out as the low fills and moves East, Tomorrow will see a dry day for many as a slender ridge of High pressure crosses the UK. On Wednesday a front moves NE in association with Low pressure over the Atlantic slows down as it reaches Scotland. The rest of the week then looks changeable with some drier and brighter spells in the South where it will become mild while Northern areas staying cloudier and often wet as well as colder than elsewhere.

GFS through the weekend and throughout next week shows mild air extending to all areas with rain and strong winds on frequent occasions for all as Low pressure up to the NW repeatedly sends troughs NE across the UK in temperatures well up to and at times above the seasonal normal. Little changes in the latter stages of the run with the only minor change being slightly colder conditions developing slowly again over the North as winds turn Easterly.

UKMO has cyclonic winds blowing over the UK to end next weekend, SW'ly in the South and SE'ly in the North. The weather would remain unsettled and basically mild with rain or showers carried North through Britain with some regularity and with shorter drier and brighter spells too, these mostly towards the East.

GEM shows less mild conditions than the other models with an Easterly flow across all Northern areas for much of it's run. The South would be reasonably mild but all areas would be subject to Low pressure areas down towards the West and SW carrying repeated bands of rain and strong winds across most areas, heaviest in the South and West.

NAVGEM too shows an unsettled and sometimes windy outlook with Low pressure coming ever closer in towards the UK next weekend with cooler SE winds in the North, milder SW winds in the South with rain at times for all.

ECM shows unsettled conditions next weekend when the North stays rather chillier with a fresh to strong and chilly ESE wind while the South sees more SSW winds carrying bands of rain at times mixed with some more showery interludes with a little brightness. The end of the run if anything strengthens the unsettled theme with gales and heavy rain likely to be sweeping in from the SW by the middle of next week. 

The GFS Ensembles show a typically wet and windy set this morning with an almost total Atlantic influence so no cold weather expected for the next few weeks. There will be a lot of rain at times for all areas with the North feeling a chilly breeze from the ESE.

The Jet Stream shows the flow to the North weakening over the coming days as a new arm sets up much further South across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain and France from the end of the week and next.

In Summary the weather will become more generally unsettled later this week and then remain in situ thereafter. For the North a chilly ESE breeze off the North Sea will keep things a little chilly for a time but the vast majority of the time the weather will be relatively mild but more importantly wet and windy with most places seeing much more rain than they have seen for some considerable time. I can see little or no chance of any quiet and cold weather developing anytime soon from this morning's output so fog and frost problems over the coming two weeks should be minimalistic.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Mild and wet if not very wet especially, in the S/SW sums up the output today for the next 5 to 10 days.

You know the rules people, it always takes 2 or 3 attempts. I still am of the oppinion that we are on the cusp of something very interesting towards the end of October. The block seems to restrengthen again and the jet stream pushes towards spain. Meanwhile a deep cold pool is building in parts of scandanavia. Even if we don't get 'lucky' this month with the novelety of some sleetiness, we need to keep watching for the first week of november (provided the atlantic doesnt wake up). 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013101406/navgem-1-144.png?14-12

More likley to be a major storm before the cold sets in

Blocking much stronger on this run, higher heights in SW greenland and a slightly more southern jet.