Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 15th 2013.

All models show the same pattern as previous runs tonight so a short report from me tonight. Through the remainder of the week mild SSW winds will spread NE tomorrow behind a band of rain which then becomes slow moving over the North keeping things rather chillier here. Following the rain in the South it will become rather warm but breezy with occasional showers and further spells of rain later in the week, though still with some drier spells at times too.

GFS shows the rest of it's run with sometimes wet and very windy weather across all areas at times as increasingly deep Autumnal Low's rattle East or NE across the North Atlantic past NW Scotland. gales or severe gales are possible at times with temperatures holding well up to normal if not above.

UKMO shows a more modest but very mild South or SW flow with rain at times for all areas with temperatures on the warm side of average for most.

GEM also carries a lot of unsettled weather through next week with winds up to gale force and periods of rain moving NE on regular occasions through the week.

NAVGEM also shows unsettled weather with SW winds carrying through the beginning half of next week with relatively mild conditions for most.

ECM shows all the hallmarks of a prolonged mild spell with a conveyor belt of Low pressure tracking NE towards the NW of the UK throughout next week with trough after trough carrying bands of rain followed by showers in often very windy but mild conditions for all.

The GFS Ensembles show almost universal support for a mild and unsettled period of weather nationwide. Temperatures will almost be always on the mild side especially overnight with plenty of wind blowing at times.

The Jet Stream shows the flow currently being set up across the Atlantic and across the UK showing some signal to buckle North over Europe in response to some build of pressure to the SE of Britain in Week 2.

In Summary a mild period is more or less set in stone tonight with a sustained period of SW winds, mild weather with rain at times. Prolonged dry weather will be very hard to find over the coming few weeks with the incidence of frost or fog almost non existent with temperaatures by night especially well above average.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Sounds OK to me.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 16th 2013.

All models show a front moving NE across the UK today. It will carry rain NE too, heavy in places but not everywhere. The rain band will become slow moving over the far North tonight and tomorrow while all other areas see clearer and milder weather move in behind the rain later this morning in the SW and elsewhere this afternoon and tonight. A few showers will follow but mostly scattered and confined to the West. Tomorrow sees this showery mix prevail when it will feel quite warm in the sunshine. After that further troughs and Low pressure areas in the Eastern Atlantic dominate our weather maintaining mild and windy weather with rain at times, some heavy through Friday and the weekend with just brief brighter intervals. It may still feel chilly at times in the North though.

GFS then shows all of next week largely the same with showers or longer periods of rain for all in mostly mild SW winds as deep Low pressure crosses the NW. Towards the end of the week a brief colder interlude may develop as a weak ridge crosses East behind one such depression before the pattern resets for the end of the run with strong winds and heavy rain sweeping East.

UKMO closes it's run with the UK bathed in a warm and moist SSW flow with Low pressure positioned out in the Eastern Atlantic SW of Ireland. All areas would see rather mild weather with a lot of cloudy skies with spells of rain or showers a frequent event for many. The East would see the best of the drier and brighter spells.

GEM today shows a vigorous Low pressure moving North up the Western Coasts of the UK through next week with gale force Southerly and then SW winds with bands of heavy rain sweeping through followed by showers. In the wake of this Low further secondary features sweeping NE keep the pot boiling with further wet and windy weather in maintained mild conditions throughout in the South though the trend towards colder conditions over the North is shown late in the run.

NAVGEM also shows Low pressure just to the West of the UK with fronts crossing North and East over all areas at times delivering bands of rain and showers throughout. On it's run temperatures stay close to or above average throughout for all.

ECM shows unsettled weather too next week with a brief ridge early in the week offering the South and East something drier and brighter for a brief while. However, by midweek all areas become subject to strong winds and rain as Low pressure regains total control parked to the West and NW of Britain with mild conditions still maintained for most.

The GFS Ensembles show a sustained mild spell with plenty of rain at times for all areas in predominantly South or SW winds. The cooler interlude offered by the operational run for the North was not supported to any great degree with most members opting for just a plain and traditional often windy, mild and wet October period.

The Jet Stream shows the new Southern arm of the Jet Stream is now the dominant player for the foreseeable future swallowing up the weakened Northern arm and maintaining a position close to Southern Britain from now on.

In Summary the models have pretty much settled now on a prolonged and unsettled period of traditional wet and windy October weather. It won't be raining all the time and all ares will see some drier and quite warm weather in between the bands of showers. Night times could see temperatures unusually mild at times in the long fetch South or SW drift. Conversely and on the negative side some of the rainfall could be heavy and driven on by an often strong South or SW wind.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

A little surprised there are no yellows for SW Scotland today with the occlusion stalling delivering 60mm+ orographic rainfall this afternoon and overnight in this area.

Thankyou Martin for the output..

No good putting up the umbrella with the wind about. 

Back to more blocking type conditions today, although the ECM still remains fairly zonal. GFS once again tries to blow up a greenland high. Height lowering in general actually; it does seem that the atlantic is going to become more active whatever happens and our weather is more dictated by the position of these cyclones. 

I suppose it 'had' to happen at some point, although I do see the tendancy for a southerly shift in the mean jet towards the end of October which will entice the first taste of sub-zero uppers to flirt with the North at times.
In the meantime the Arctic winter will remain on course to deepen into November.

We need the leaves on the trees to fall first before the cold and snow arrives.  We need a good wind to blow them all away and rot back

Usually by Mid november the landscape is ready for winter.

Interesting that the Atlantic peps up just as sunspots increase - could be total coincidence but as seen in Gavin's winter round up from Sunday, sunspots definitely on the increase in relation to how they have been of late. Still a very low peak for the end of a cycle but picking up none the less.

We had the same thing I think in 2011 / 12 sunspot wise which resulted for most of the time a mild westerly winter with an obvious exception.

Back to MO, does seem typical UK Autumn fare with wet and windy inbetween mild or very mild conditions at times - hopefully this will be limited to NW europe and not push deep into Russia. Still signs of some northern blocking into FI as mentioned and it is only October thankfully still.

Hmm GFS 6z has followed the 0z and really ramped up the blocking once again after the obligatory failed attempts. Possible trend setter? I don't know, there have been many times when the GFS has bested the ECM (but probably more vice versa) but its once again interesting to see a possible titan clash. 

12Z following suit with nothern blocking still very much prevalant. That cyclone really doesn't want to give up though, we end up with it being draped right over the UK. I have a feeling the precip % this month will turn out to be extremely high. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

October ends on a breezy note

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn33617.png

More of an October feel

Hi everyone. Are there any changes to the mild and unsettled theme tonight? Read on to find out with the data used taken from the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 15th 2013.

GFS makes few changes to this pattern for the remainder of the run with a succession of Low pressure areas tracking NE close to NW Britain pulling troughs quickly NE and North over the UK. So there would continue to be spells of wet and windy weather alternating with sunshine and showers in strong SW winds and temperatures close to average or somewhat above. Late in the run a change to colder weather occurs as Low pressure to the NE exits East leaving a legacy of NE winds and cold showers over England and Wales with drier and cold weather under a ridge sliding SE over Scotland and Northern Ireland.

UKMO tonight shows another surge of mild SSW winds and heavy rain bearing fronts moving NE across Britain  delivering copious rainfall in places while winds become strong for many areas too.

GEM shows a replica of the UKMO chart at Day 6 moving on to continue wet and very windy weather across all of Britain as winds remain WSW with active troughs and depressions continuing to cross the Atlantic on a collision course with the British Isles.

NAVGEM tonight offers little respite from the same story with rain and strong SW winds regular features to the weather pattern over all of the UK with temperatures remaining on the warm side of average over all.

ECM too is particularly unsettled and potentially stormy towards the end of the run as Low pressures deepen further with spells of heavy rain and showers throughout next week.

The GFS Ensembles continue to illustrate generally unsettled conditions with rain and strong winds at times in a basically SW or Westerly airflow. Temperatures will hold at levels above average for the most part though some brief colder incursions could deliver a cooler feel of average temperatures briefly almost anywhere but chiefly more towards the North.

The Jet Stream is shown to blow sometimes strongly in an Easterly direction across the Atlantic and across or to the South of the UK over the next week. In Week 2 little changes though the flow strengthens further with the core moving a little further North over Scotland with time.

In Summary tonight the weather looks like being particularly unsettled over the coming couple of weeks. For much of the time it will be mild though this could be offset somewhat by the wind and rain. Gales or severe gales are possible at times, especially later with little sign of anything remotely cold with little chance of frost and fog issues.

Transcript taken fron:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

I am of heh increasing belief that significant high latitude blocking will establish itself towards the end of October.

JMA illustrates what is potentially waiting to the NE if the cyclone takes a more SErly track

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2013101612/J192-7.GIF?16-12

12Z ECM is much more similar to the GFS now, with the back end of that cyclone getting closer. 

What does ??

Personally the cold can wait until we hit into December

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

Very unsettled towards the end of the month

The cyclones are still draped over the UK on the 18z NAVGEM and GFS, and slightly further south in the former case. If we could just clear them to the south or the east I think some of that cold air could start to move towards N scotland. Mind you, if this was january we would be getting snow event, after snow event as the depressions slide along through. 

CFS keeps those southerlies going for a couple of weeks into the start of November

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-402.png?12

when I don't mind one frosty clear night when Nov 5th arrives

At the rate theses months seem to be racing by, I'll blink and miss the winter altogether...

Good morning. Here is the morning view of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 17th 2013.

All models show a similar pattern over the coming 4-5 days with the general message being an unsettled one revolving around Low pressure to the West of Britain and High pressure over Europe. There are small scale changes this morning in the shortest term in that the wet weather tomorrow has been pushed further West and will leave the East and SE of the UK in a drier and potentially foggy period tonight as a ridge pushes across these areas later today and a drier day tomorrow than originally thought. Beyond tomorrow the trend is as before with various troughs and Low pressure areas pushing up from the SW delivering periods of rain, heavy at times interspersed with showers and sunny intervals. It will stay mild overall though Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles could stay rather colder for a few more days yet.

GFS then shows next week as an unsettled one with wind featuring rather more than currently with gales in places as successive Lows and troughs swing NE close by to the UK. The temperatures would become academic as the wind will temper the mildness of the overall values through most days. There could be some copious rainfall totals at times especially near windward slopes facing SW with just shorter drier and fresher periods in between the rain. Things are shown to dry out towards the SE late in the run but no less mild with a long fetch SW strong flow bringing warm and moist air from the tropics and delivering rain and drizzle to many Northern and Western areas.

UKMO closes it's run today with a deep Low to the West of Ireland with SW winds across much of Britain with troughs embedded in the flow. These would bring spells of rain North and East across the UK in continuing mild and windy conditions for all.

GEM also keeps the changeable and unsettled theme going throughout next week as Low after Low pushes North across Western Britain pulling their troughs NE across all areas with strong winds up to gale force at times with spells of heavy rain and shorter more showery periods in between. There are some signs that the North could become less mild very late in the run as Low pressure anchors more towards the SW.

NAVGEM keeps a very turbulent spell of weather over the UK next week as a conveyor belt of Low pressure crosses the Atlantic and crashes into the UK with active fronts and strong winds delivering showers and longer periods of rain to all in temperatures near to or above normal throughout.

ECM is a little calmer today despite continuing to show changeable and mild weather for much of next week it offers higher pressure feeding North towards Southern Britain later next week fending Low pressures further to the NW and allowing Southern Britain to become dry and very mild with a weak SW flow. Such improvements look less likely for the North and West as weaker troughs move North and NE afflicting these areas with grey but mild conditions with rain and drizzle at times. As a precursor to this Northern areas may become somewhat cooler for a time.

The GFS Ensembles this morning show close agreement on a sustained mild and Atlantic based weather pattern with highly changeable conditions alternating between spells of rain and brighter days with showers. With winds always from a SW direction things would remain mild overall with little likelihood of frost and fog due to the mildness, cloud cover expected and the strength and source of the wind.

The Jet Stream driving these synoptics shows a new position much further South than recently over or to the South of Britain through the coming week. Changes are slow thereafter though there looks like at least the possibility of it moving further North over the Atlantic in 10 days or so.

In Summary today the mild theme continues with rain at times likely for all. As always in these changeable Atlantic based patterns the heaviest rain will be in the North and West while the South and East might well be favoured for some shorter drier interludes with rather more than that if ECM's output is realised for later next week. All charts from all models point towards above average or average temperatures at worst with little widespread frost or fog problems away from tonight. The pattern looks set for some considerable time with any trend arising from this morning's output showing a shift North of the Jet late next week which though currently speculative would only serve to maintain a milder still and drier South or SW flow over Britain pumped up by higher pressure over Europe.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013101700/navgem-0-180.png?17-07

NAVGEM 0z

The cold air seems always to be just out of reach, while the UK is pummeled with cyclones. I suspect the nothern isles, particularly shetland will see an early taste of winter at times though. 

I mean the GEM 0z is interesting too

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013101700/gem-0-180.png?00

Starting to push the invest to the SE.

This cyclone in itself is interesting, it starts of as 2 separate entities, and the 2nd one tends to absorb the first, and actually pull it a good few hundred miles south in the process. Its like watching 2 magnetic tops interacting. You don't really know where they will end up.