Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 15th 2013.
All models show the same pattern as previous runs tonight so a short report from me tonight. Through the remainder of the week mild SSW winds will spread NE tomorrow behind a band of rain which then becomes slow moving over the North keeping things rather chillier here. Following the rain in the South it will become rather warm but breezy with occasional showers and further spells of rain later in the week, though still with some drier spells at times too.
GFS shows the rest of it's run with sometimes wet and very windy weather across all areas at times as increasingly deep Autumnal Low's rattle East or NE across the North Atlantic past NW Scotland. gales or severe gales are possible at times with temperatures holding well up to normal if not above.
UKMO shows a more modest but very mild South or SW flow with rain at times for all areas with temperatures on the warm side of average for most.
GEM also carries a lot of unsettled weather through next week with winds up to gale force and periods of rain moving NE on regular occasions through the week.
NAVGEM also shows unsettled weather with SW winds carrying through the beginning half of next week with relatively mild conditions for most.
ECM shows all the hallmarks of a prolonged mild spell with a conveyor belt of Low pressure tracking NE towards the NW of the UK throughout next week with trough after trough carrying bands of rain followed by showers in often very windy but mild conditions for all.
The GFS Ensembles show almost universal support for a mild and unsettled period of weather nationwide. Temperatures will almost be always on the mild side especially overnight with plenty of wind blowing at times.
The Jet Stream shows the flow currently being set up across the Atlantic and across the UK showing some signal to buckle North over Europe in response to some build of pressure to the SE of Britain in Week 2.
In Summary a mild period is more or less set in stone tonight with a sustained period of SW winds, mild weather with rain at times. Prolonged dry weather will be very hard to find over the coming few weeks with the incidence of frost or fog almost non existent with temperaatures by night especially well above average.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Originally Posted by: GIBBY