Good morning. Here is today's look at the midnight report from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 18th 2013.
All models maintain the viewpoint that the weather will stay mild over the coming week with Low pressure never far away from the West of the UK throwing strong winds and rain at times across all areas, heaviest in the North and West of the UK with sunshine and showers in between, perhaps heavy and squally with thunder. With winds always from the SW the temperatures would remain very mild and unseasonably so at times in any brightness.
GFS then continues this theme through the remainder of next week and weekend before the trend towards drier weather moves up from the SW as pressure builds. The Jet flow would move North pulling Low pressure areas well to the North of the UK keeping windy, mild and sometimes wet weather expected still here while Southern Britain becomes dry if rather cloudy but still very mild.
UKMO shows deep Low pressure stretching from Ireland to Scotland with a SW flow over many parts continuing to deliver spells of heavy rain and showers along with mild but strong winds. Scotland would see lighter winds and somewhat less mild weather but no less wet.
GEM looks a little like GFS as it builds pressure to the South of the UK late in its run with dry weather developing towards the SE later next week and rain bearing troughs and depressions being pushed further towards the NW of Britain with maintained rain at times there. It would remain mild or very mild for all, especially towards the brighter SE later.
NAVGEM too shows embryonic signs of pressure building North across the UK late in it's run to end the spell of wet and windy weather with Low pressure shown exiting East in the days following the end of the run.
ECM shows pressure building across Southern Britain next weekend albeit briefly with Low pressure shunted further North along with the Jet Stream. The net result would be to restrict the effects of the deep Lows and troughs more towards the North and West of Britain while Southern and Eastern Britain while staying breezy become drier but still very mild in a SW feed.
The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of the unsettled and often wet conditions with rain at times for all in often windy conditions. Though very mild at first the trend towards more average temperatures remain shown towards the end of the run late in the run.
The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow remaining well South across the Atlantic and the UK for the next week or so but there is some limited support for it to migrate back further North late in the run more especially across Europe.
In Summary today all models continue to show mild and unsettled weather prevailing for a fair while with SW winds, strong at times affecting all areas. The trend picked up on by ECM yesterday of a pressure build to the SE late next week and weekend has grown some support this morning from GEM and GFS late in it's run, pushing the Jet further North but probably promoting a major winter storm well up to the NW so any affects would only likely be felt in the South and East with the North and West maintaining windy and wet conditions. The one universal fact from this morning's output remains the fact that no cold conditions are likely anywhere over the UK to see out October with quite the opposite more likely of mild and sometimes unseasonably mild conditions likely especially over the next few days. In cloudier skies though strong winds may offset the feel of these temperatures.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Edited by user
18 October 2013 08:03:48
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset