A very Atlantic dominated outlook for the next 10 days.

But it is the middle of Autumn and not even winter yet.

Agree, although cold weather can occur it's a bit like expecting 94F in mid April - extreme conditions required to get severe cold at this time of year. Another month on though and we near the end of Autumn, also don't forget how wet and windy most of November 2010 was until near the end of the month.

No sign of anything cold yet. No surprises as last Winter didn't get going until late January. My feeling is we'll get nothing cold until January again this Winter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

NAVGEM unsettled...Does the job next week for me...

That's fine plenty of time yet , middle of December and after will be fine for the cold weather to arraive

Start of November 2010 was wet and mild, plenty of time yet.

Yep it was, here for example 3rd 16*c ,4th 18*c ,5th 17*c and night temps 13-15*c then a gradual decline from the 6th with night time temps taking a dip and the end of the month went down in history

October here also was a very wet start and end to the month also.

Sorry for off topic but thought I would also point out how crazy it is to right off November at this stage.

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

Octoner To January;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Having a quite look at the JMA three monthlies.

Cheers Gavin, lots of rain to look forward too then. One point of concern still is that of a lack of a Tripole forming in the Atlantic, still early days yet but one worth keeping an eye on in the next month.

Thanks Gavin, Happy Birthday.

Cheers Gav

Avg December , below Avg January.....................sounds ok

Does anybody recall at what point the models picked up on the exceptional last week in November that year?

ISTR the second last week was cold but nothing out of the ordinary.

Thanks everyone.

SC, I wouldn't be too concerned about this until the start of winter. Last year we had a really good tripolie through autumn, but itfaded by December (but came back in March) Perhaps this year will be the reverse.

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 17th 2013.

All models continue to show mild and changeable periods for the next 4-5 days when the agreed pattern between the models of Low pressure to the West of the UK with mild and breezy South or SW winds carrying Low pressure and troughs NE across all areas with showers or longer spells of rain for all while temperatures remain well above average.

GFS shows the entire remainder of the run with repeated Low pressure areas steaming East and NE towards NW Scotland and continuing to deliver spells of sometimes heavy rain and showers in sometimes gale force SW winds. Temperatures would remain close to average or a little above with the threat of things cooling down in the North late in the run.

UKMO tonight shows deep Low pressure close to NW Britain next Wednesday with strong to gale SW winds and heavy rain or squally showers for all in temperatures close to average or rather above in the South, sometimes offset by the wind though.

GEM shows potentially very wet conditions through tonight's latter half to it's run with depressions scooting NE across Northern and Western Britain with rain and gale or severe gale force winds at times in temperatures close to average. A few short drier interludes are possible too.

NAVGEM too shows a deep Low pressure complex remaining around or over the UK with rain and strong winds on frequent occasions with sunshine and showers when it is not raining continually. It too shows temperatures close to or a little above average, all academic though due to the strength of the wind.

ECM tonight shows a strong Jet flow blowing across the Atlantic and across the UK later next week with copious rainfall at times as well as strong winds as troughs and attendant Low pressure areas swing by close to the NW of the UK. It would stay relatively mild offset in the wind and rain.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a potentially wet and occasionally stormy spell of weather possible with Low pressure nearly always the governing feature centred close to or over the UK. After a mild beginning a slow trend towards more average temperatures look possible towards the end of the run.

The Jet Stream continues to show a feed South of the UK for some considerable time now steering deep Low pressure close to or over NW Britain. Through the second less reliable half of the output the pattern remains more open but with every chance that the Jet flow remains on a Southerly location maintaining the unsettled feed.

In Summary tonight there is a strong signal for potentially very wet conditions to develop across many parts of the UK over the next week or two. A persistent spell of successive Low pressure areas which deepen further later in the run will ensure a lot of rain at times though the compensation is paid back by winds being maintained from a basic SW source ensuring mild weather will be felt for all for most of the time. Having said that the unseasonably mild conditions of current times may leak away later next week and beyond as colder air becomes engaged around the Western flank of Low pressure areas over the North. In addition to all this some very strong winds reaching severe gale force could cause some disruption at times as the deepest Lows roll past.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thanks Gibby 

I personally  don't care much for  gales, but at least the weather doesn't look like being bland 

Good morning. Here is today's look at the midnight report from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 18th 2013.

All models maintain the viewpoint that the weather will stay mild over the coming week with Low pressure never far away from the West of the UK throwing strong winds and rain at times across all areas, heaviest in the North and West of the UK with sunshine and showers in between, perhaps heavy and squally with thunder. With winds always from the SW the temperatures would remain very mild and unseasonably so at times in any brightness.

GFS then continues this theme through the remainder of next week and weekend before the trend towards drier weather moves up from the SW as pressure builds. The Jet flow would move North pulling Low pressure areas well to the North of the UK keeping windy, mild and sometimes wet weather expected still here while Southern Britain becomes dry if rather cloudy but still very mild.

UKMO shows deep Low pressure stretching from Ireland to Scotland with a SW flow over many parts continuing to deliver spells of heavy rain and showers along with mild but strong winds. Scotland would see lighter winds and somewhat less mild weather but no less wet.

GEM looks a little like GFS as it builds pressure to the South of the UK late in its run with dry weather developing towards the SE later next week and rain bearing troughs and depressions being pushed further towards the NW of Britain with maintained rain at times there. It would remain mild or very mild for all, especially towards the brighter SE later.

NAVGEM too shows embryonic signs of pressure building North across the UK late in it's run to end the spell of wet and windy weather with Low pressure shown exiting East in the days following the end of the run.

ECM shows pressure building across Southern Britain next weekend albeit briefly with Low pressure shunted further North along with the Jet Stream. The net result would be to restrict the effects of the deep Lows and troughs more towards the North and West of Britain while Southern and Eastern Britain while staying breezy become drier but still very mild in a SW feed.

The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of the unsettled and often wet conditions with rain at times for all in often windy conditions. Though very mild at first the trend towards more average temperatures remain shown towards the end of the run late in the run.

The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow remaining well South across the Atlantic and the UK for the next week or so but there is some limited support for it to migrate back further North late in the run more especially across Europe.

In Summary today all models continue to show mild and unsettled weather prevailing for a fair while with SW winds, strong at times affecting all areas. The trend picked up on by ECM yesterday of a pressure build to the SE late next week and weekend has grown some support this morning from GEM and GFS late in it's run, pushing the Jet further North but probably promoting a major winter storm well up to the NW so any affects would only likely be felt in the South and East with the North and West maintaining windy and wet conditions. The one universal fact from this morning's output remains the fact that no cold conditions are likely anywhere over the UK to see out October with quite the opposite more likely of mild and sometimes unseasonably mild conditions likely especially over the next few days. In cloudier skies though strong winds may offset the feel of these temperatures.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm 

The other thing Gav which could be a big stumbling block ( literally ) is that big fat Euro high sitting there, once these become established throughout Autumn/Winter we generally end up on the wrong side of any cold for many weeks on end. Until that big block buggers off any chances of a cold spell developing are slim to none.

Thanks everyone.

Cheers Gavin, lots of rain to look forward too then. One point of concern still is that of a lack of a Tripole forming in the Atlantic, still early days yet but one worth keeping an eye on in the next month.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

SC, I wouldn't be too concerned about this until the start of winter. Last year we had a really good tripolie through autumn, but itfaded by December (but came back in March) Perhaps this year will be the reverse.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

That's why I said it's early days.

 

The other thing Gav which could be a big stumbling block ( literally ) is that big fat Euro high sitting there, once these become established throughout Autumn/Winter we generally end up on the wrong side of any cold for many weeks on end. Until that big block buggers off any chances of a cold spell developing are slim to none.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Someone mention Euro High?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

Thankfully that's FI but is enough to make you , let's hope we don't see that over Winter.

Thanks everyone.

Cheers Gavin, lots of rain to look forward too then. One point of concern still is that of a lack of a Tripole forming in the Atlantic, still early days yet but one worth keeping an eye on in the next month.

Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

SC, I wouldn't be too concerned about this until the start of winter. Last year we had a really good tripolie through autumn, but itfaded by December (but came back in March) Perhaps this year will be the reverse.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

That's why I said it's early days.

 

The other thing Gav which could be a big stumbling block ( literally ) is that big fat Euro high sitting there, once these become established throughout Autumn/Winter we generally end up on the wrong side of any cold for many weeks on end. Until that big block buggers off any chances of a cold spell developing are slim to none.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Someone mention Euro High?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 

Thankfully that's FI but is enough to make you , let's hope we don't see that over Winter.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Looks a bit like the same day in 2010 - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=1&month=11&day=5&year=2010&map=0 

... or this very day in 1981

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=18&month=10&year=1981&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

Current synoptics really do seem irrelevant for winter, even for as early as December.

And what a fantastic winter that was!

All models show that Anorak and waterproof cap is needed.

And Jiries in his famous shed with those 2 lovely girls no one seen or heard from him in this unsettled spell.

Lucky bugger.

Hi all,

Here's today video update;

Could This The Mildest October On Record?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Time for a bit of mild ramping methinks.