theweatheroutlook

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radiohead
25 October 2013 08:59:47


ecm mean does not develop such a bomb nor as bad as quick intresting at 96 mean and opp look close


 but not at 72 at the mo


mean


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem721.html


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem961.html


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


I'm not sure that a mean chart is all that useful with this type of thing since the members that don't show any development will cancel out the signal. The lower resolution of ensemble members also won't help with this since it's a rapidly developing system with the critical stuff happening over a fairly small number of grid points, quite different from a big dartboard low tumbling across the Atlantic.


 


At least we will be getting into NAE range soon.

Polar Low
25 October 2013 09:07:49

Members most of the time do there best imo


Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

nsrobins
25 October 2013 09:14:53


Members most of the time do there best imo


Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Yes I acknowledge that and as anyone knows I am often the first to throw in a off-topic one liner, but comments like 'It'll probably end up just being a breeze' don't really add anything to a discussion that should be focussed and objective.

I might be wrong of course, and if so could a moderator please direct me to the appropriate thread.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Lucy J
25 October 2013 09:20:43
Given that I'm in Brighton, I assume we're going to get hit by this at some stage - is it looking like overnight, or is it going to be when Im trying to walk to the office about 8am?
NickR
25 October 2013 09:21:17



Members most of the time do there best imo


Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



Yes I acknowledge that and as anyone knows I am often the first to throw in a off-topic one liner, but comments like 'It'll probably end up just being a breeze' don't really add anything to a discussion that should be focussed and objective.

I might be wrong of course, and if so could a moderator please direct me to the appropriate thread.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


No, you are quite right.


Posters should avoid the risk of flippant statements coming across as subtle trolling.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gandalf The White
25 October 2013 09:45:20

Given that I'm in Brighton, I assume we're going to get hit by this at some stage - is it looking like overnight, or is it going to be when Im trying to walk to the office about 8am?

Originally Posted by: Lucy J 



Hi. This LP doesn't form for another 36 hours or so, which means we are still dealing with model uncertainties. But based on the latest output and given your position on the south coast you're in the firing line for Monday morning

It'll become clearer on Saturday and pretty certain by Sunday.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gusty
25 October 2013 09:48:20


Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Good post Neil. Wishcasting and second guessing of forecasts by amateurs is not helpful in the lead up to such a potentially high impact, disruptive and life threatening event.


The relevant agencies are gearing up for a significant event.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Charmhills
25 October 2013 09:58:44



Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Good post Neil. Wishcasting and second guessing of forecasts by amateurs is not helpful in the lead up to such a potentially high impact, disruptive and life threatening event.


The relevant agencies are gearing up for a significant event.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Indeed, its looking that way to.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Phil G
25 October 2013 10:00:49
Slight change as you would expect now from run to run, with GFS 6z appearing at this stage to reserve this event for extreme southern coastal counties and the extreme South East.
nsrobins
25 October 2013 10:01:09

GFS 06Z rolling and the Op has gone some way to reverting back to it's 18Z run last night and more in line with the suite.
It's actually quite fascinating watching the oscillations in solutions at the moment as the algortithms attempt to get the phasing of the 300mb jet and baroclinic surge right.
The worst case scenario is to be frank as bad as proposed yesterday, and whatever you read or hear you should be prepared for a potential significant event here.

The next piece of information worth considering will be the updated MetO warnings and possibly the thoughts of Ian F who has GM and Mogreps data available.

I will hold an advanced warning for my subscribers here in S Hampshire for a few hours yet when I should be able to add a little more detail.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Polar Low
25 October 2013 10:03:33

tiny little push south from main pivot in scotland around t60 sends it a little further south on this run gfs6z


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=0


 

idj20
25 October 2013 10:14:14



Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Good post Neil. Wishcasting and second guessing of forecasts by amateurs is not helpful in the lead up to such a potentially high impact, disruptive and life threatening event.


The relevant agencies are gearing up for a significant event.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Not to mention the information overload I am currently experiencing. Probably best if I sit back a bit and watch the whole thing unfold as all this hopecasting and wishcasting wouldn't make a ounce of difference to the final outcome, the weather will do damn well what it likes.
   Like I said, doesn't help that wind is my least favourite weather type.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Justin W
25 October 2013 10:15:21

If anything, I would say the 06z suggests a significant increase in the likelihood that the far SE - and Kent in particular - is facing a potentially very serious and damaging storm around lunchtime Monday. Not good. Not good at all.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Girthmeister
25 October 2013 10:21:19


If anything, I would say the 06z suggests a significant increase in the likelihood that the far SE - and Kent in particular - is facing a potentially very serious and damaging storm around lunchtime Monday. Not good. Not good at all.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs785.gif  looks very unpleasant

idj20
25 October 2013 10:23:11



If anything, I would say the 06z suggests a significant increase in the likelihood that the far SE - and Kent in particular - is facing a potentially very serious and damaging storm around lunchtime Monday. Not good. Not good at all.


Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs785.gif  looks very unpleasant


Originally Posted by: Justin W 




Urgh, don't like that as that puts me right in the bullseye, mind you those winds would be coming in from the west rather than in from the sea by that time and it'll be during the day time.

Besides, I bet that'll be gone in the next run as the models continue to try and get to grips with it all.

Otherwise, it looks like I'm buggered.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Polar Low
25 October 2013 10:25:26

6z gfs its a bit more elongated thou but one thing also worries me one of convective gusts.


taken from earlier run


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur72.png


 



If anything, I would say the 06z suggests a significant increase in the likelihood that the far SE - and Kent in particular - is facing a potentially very serious and damaging storm around lunchtime Monday. Not good. Not good at all.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Matty H
25 October 2013 10:30:23
Just going back to daft comments; yes there have been a couple of flippant remarks, but condemnation of second guessing forecasters is wrong IMO. Several of you do it on Facebook all the time, particularly when faced with a major snowfall that can be just as life threatening. What's the difference? There isn't one, and as for snow threads on here, well that's all they are - second guessing and opinion. It's what a forum is for. Naturally, comments like "it'll probably just be a breeze" aren't helpful, but lets please not turn this into a class war of forecasting talent.
The constructive comment and opinion in here has far outweighed the odd daft comment.
Anyway... Back on topic....
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Polar Low
25 October 2013 10:35:21

Was mentioned last night dont think about it thou 2 much#"


someone might be unlucky


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_stp_eur72.png


 


 


 

Polar Low
25 October 2013 10:40:46
Charmhills
25 October 2013 10:43:01

A large Amber warning area for damaging winds and heavy rain/surface water flooding for much of the south and Midlands.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
picturesareme
25 October 2013 10:44:12
Unless winds are gusting +85mph I'm not getting excited.


70-80mph: A few branches will be broken and even a weak tree or two toppled, but hey its autumn and this is the UK. These storms are more common the further west & north you go but it seems every year people on here forget that they all also hit the southern costal areas too... 1 or 2 a year.
Weathermac
25 October 2013 10:56:43

Unless winds are gusting +85mph I'm not getting excited.


70-80mph: A few branches will be broken and even a weak tree or two toppled, but hey its autumn and this is the UK. These storms are more common the further west & north you go but it seems every year people on here forget that they all also hit the southern costal areas too... 1 or 2 a year.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Dont forget trees are still mostly in full leaf still so i expect more than a few branches and weak trees to be toppled sadly.

ManUtdMatt1986
25 October 2013 10:59:06

Since when have 80mph gusts hit the south coast once or twice a year?

I'm 27 years old and I don't remember there ever being gusts that strong across southern England. Coastal or otherise (I'm too young to remember 1990 or 1987).

eddied
25 October 2013 11:06:42


Since when have 80mph gusts hit the south coast once or twice a year?

I'm 27 years old and I don't remember there ever being gusts that strong across southern England. Coastal or otherise (I'm too young to remember 1990 or 1987).


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


1987 peak gusts were 100mph plus over a fairly wide area inland, with coast peaks 20mph above that (I think somewhere in France got the highest measurement), so it was a small but significant step up from what's currently forecast for Monday. Let's hope it stays that way.


That said, and as others have pointed out, trees still in leaf and saturated ground were two factors in place in 1987 too, so 80mph is still plenty enough to make things messy if widespread inland.

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
nsrobins
25 October 2013 11:07:42


Since when have 80mph gusts hit the south coast once or twice a year?

I'm 27 years old and I don't remember there ever being gusts that strong across southern England. Coastal or otherise (I'm too young to remember 1990 or 1987).


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 



I don't have data to hand but you are quite right. Even when it's very windy with leaves and twigs blowing around the maximum gust you'll see in places like Portland or St Catherines Head on the IOW is 60-70mph.
With 55-60mph sustained winds you can expect gusts in excess of 80mph. That is what is being modelled as it stands and gusts of that magnitude are more than capable of bringing trees down and causing structural damage, especially as it's been a few years now since the last comparable event.
Still a forecast though which is what we are here for.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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