Monday's predicted storm· Page 8

NickR
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 14:42:52

The incessant regionalisms from some is tiring. I've just removed one post along the lines of "southern softies". This could potentially be a very damaging storm, and the idea that this wouldn't be damaging and of concern in populated areas of the N is simply ridiculous.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

Osprey
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 14:48:44

#177

Am I able to I track the beginning of the event on-line?

Many thanks

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

Polar Low
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 14:49:27

#178

Just wanted to say welcome and good point about tides down there dont forget about Hollywell bay which also would be at huge risk with those holiday apartments close by.

Lovely place cheers and welcome.

Do we think thw winds of Friday November 12th 2010 to be similar to Monday. This is Cornwall reported 12 trees down and 41 incidents of minor flooding in Devon.The winds happened TWO times that week. Gale force 11...

Originally Posted by: iPope

Hi,

The winds are what I am concerned about more than the rain, and looking at the latest chart on Buzz, it would suggest that we're mostly looking at S to SW winds down here. That means that Falmouth, Penzance will take a battering. It is a good job we are not on Springs at the moment or there is the possibilty of severe coastal flooding...... had this storm been 10 days ago it would be a whole different story regarding the possible damage, combined with Spring tides.

I live in Perranporth directly overlooking the beach, so if we get Northerlies from this storm, when it hits, it's going to be a very interesting view.

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman

radiohead
Guest

25 October 2013 15:00:29

#179

Am I able to I track the beginning of the event on-line?

Many thanks

Originally Posted by: Osprey

You'll be able to follow the surface analyses on these charts as the depression starts to make its way over the Atlantic tomorrow

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=AtlN&area=eur

Osprey
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:08:20

#180

Am I able to I track the beginning of the event on-line?

Many thanks

Originally Posted by: radiohead

You'll be able to follow the surface analyses on these charts as the depression starts to make its way over the Atlantic tomorrow

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=AtlN&area=eur

Originally Posted by: Osprey

Thank you RH

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

festivalking
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:09:17

#181

hi this storm does look like october 16 1987 . like i said in the model page but if this come off and in the rush hour , this could be worse not in wind strength it could be less strong it depends if this storm has got a sting jet like 87 but compare to the burn's day storm it might be worse because the tress are in full cover . i'm wondering on sunday will the council advise the schools not to open so there won't be top many caught in the rush hour .

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Too early to make those sort of calls IMO, and it would be almost unprecendented to close schools for a wind event forecast.

I see the latest Meto fax takes a 975mb low across the far South, in line with the UKMO model that has a more southerly track. This would take the strongest winds across N France at this time.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

I would say plain stupid let alone unprecedented.

This will be virtually a nowcast situation. These southerly approaching storms always are, and they're not uncommon as we all know. Models in the next few days will have it missing completely to the south and also tracking much further north. If schools were to be shut it would be a decision that would have to be made today, or tomorrow at the latest, which would be complete lunacy. Mind you, in today's ultra cautious, scared to death of everything society nothing would surprise me RollEyes

None-the-less, the merit of keeping an eye on this is a no-brainer.

Originally Posted by: stormwatcher

Is it not half term next week - no decision to be made at least in devon and cornwall. Anyway I digress.....

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.

whitelightning
Guest

25 October 2013 15:19:56

#182

Now this looks Ouch!!!! I know the storm won't be the same but the path if it comes off is oh so similar to the 87 event.

p1382961600.gif DON'T LOOK IDJ

doctormog
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:28:45

#183

"Some gusts are likely to top 12 on the Richter Scale, a level of force which is equivalent to a hurricane, but winds will not stay consistently at this speed as they would in a real tropical storm."

Forget 1987, this event could be ground breaking if the Telegraph is anything to go by. [sn_shock] [sn_bsmil]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10405012/Storm-warning-Hurricane-strength-wind-alerts-extended-to-Midlands.html

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Justin W
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:42:57

#184

"Some gusts are likely to top 12 on the Richter Scale, a level of force which is equivalent to a hurricane, but winds will not stay consistently at this speed as they would in a real tropical storm."

Forget 1987, this event could be ground breaking if the Telegraph is anything to go by. Shock Big smile

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10405012/Storm-warning-Hurricane-strength-wind-alerts-extended-to-Midlands.html

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Crikey - I hang my head in shame

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?

doctormog
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:46:55

#185

"Some gusts are likely to top 12 on the Richter Scale, a level of force which is equivalent to a hurricane, but winds will not stay consistently at this speed as they would in a real tropical storm."

Forget 1987, this event could be ground breaking if the Telegraph is anything to go by. Shock Big smile

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10405012/Storm-warning-Hurricane-strength-wind-alerts-extended-to-Midlands.html

Originally Posted by: Justin W

Crikey - I hang my head in shame

Originally Posted by: doctormog

[sn_bsmil] Sorry Justin (but it did make me laugh [sn_blush] )

Edit: That was a quick fix!

Edited by user 25 October 2013 15:55:23 | Reason: Not specified

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

idj20
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:47:34

#186

Now this looks Ouch!!!! I know the storm won't be the same but the path if it comes off is oh so similar to the 87 event.

p1382961600.gif DON'T LOOK IDJ

Originally Posted by: whitelightning

Can't see anything in this link anyway, haha.

I'm refreshing web pages like I've never refresh before.

Can you tell I'm a bit nervous about it all?

Folkestone Harbour.

nsrobins
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:47:58

#187

GFS 12Z Op rolling out - and it doesn't look good.
At 18Z Sun it has the low bombing and already at 984mb, a good 8mb lower than the same timeframe on the 06Z.
It has deepened by 8mb in 6hrs and a tad further out at this stage.
We could see a low of sub 970mb by the time it enters the UK - even without a sting jet it looks serious.

Edited by user 25 October 2013 15:49:39 | Reason: Not specified

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

whitelightning
Guest

25 October 2013 15:51:38

#188

Yep, Looks much more of intense scenario on the 12z GFS.

Rob K
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:54:23

#189

I've been holding back on replacing several fence panels and it looks like I will have some repair work to do after Monday. In the 1987 storm we lost the entire length of fencing, some 40 metres down the side of the plot.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Might even be worth spending the weekend taking the panels down if it looks bad - better to put the old undamaged ones back up after the event than see the whole lot smashed and/or taking down the posts with it.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Phil G
Guest

25 October 2013 15:54:47

#190

Similar to the 6z, GFS still reserves this event to extreme southern coastal counties and the SE on the 12z.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn668.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn728.png

eddied
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:54:59

#191

Going the wrong way at the moment. Still plenty of time for a downgrade though. Come on leaves, fall dammit.

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st

Polar Low
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:56:12

#192

indeed sad to say deepens as she crosses more people affected as well.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=60&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0&carte=1

GFS 12Z Op rolling out - and it doesn't look good.
At 18Z Sun it has the low bombing and already at 984mb, a good 8mb lower than the same timeframe on the 06Z.
It has deepened by 8mb in 6hrs and a tad further out at this stage.
We could see a low of sub 970mb by the time it enters the UK - even without a sting jet it looks serious.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

nsrobins
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:59:18

#193

Because of the slight delay, the 12Z GFS has max winds of 70kns+ across the Southeast at around 11am Mon.
(70kns is 82mph).

It probably won't pan out like this, but the worrying thing is if it does deepen rapidly on entry, it is likely to take a left turn affecting a much wider area.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Rob K
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 15:59:45

#194

High-res charts:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs691.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs695.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs725.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs693.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 16:07:04

#195

It might be worth reminding people of the Beaufort Scale definitions:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

In particular for Storm Force 11 (winds 64-73mph): Widespread vegetation and structural damage likely.

If we do get Force 12: Severe widespread damage to vegetation and structures. Debris and unsecured objects are hurled about.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Those scales refer to sustained winds though, not gusts. A sustained wind of force 11 would indeed cause widespread damage, a few gusts to force 11 much less so (thankfully!)

Must admit I'm dreading this one... the house shakes when the gusts get above 70mph or so and it's most unsettling! Almost as unsettling as the massive Leylandii our three-ago neighbours planted, which is towering over the kitchen at the moment. It won't be fun if that comes down!

Leysdown, north Kent

Gooner
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 16:11:25

#196

I don't envy you guys further South some severe weather on the way

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Rob K
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 16:19:54

#197

From a personal point of view I do quite enjoy being inside and hearing the wind howling outside - and it's my day off on Monday so I don't have to go out in it. But then we don't have any big trees to come crashing onto the house, so I can see why others may be less keen!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 16:22:00

#198

Thats a nasty little left turn on gfs as Neil said I just hope the power lines dont start arcing and flashing about every where like 87 seemed like end of world coming the kids will be really nervious as I will be! and the thought of people getting hurt I dont like.