87 was strange thou you got like a sort of wird big updraft from each gust then waited for next big gust then sort of feeling like standing in a vacum it was really strange a job to explain towards end of storm u could hear the gusts get less and less with more time in between each one.

 

I  walking to work then and wondering what to to with a piece of 6ft steel roof in front of me and it was moving like a piece of paper.

weather to go around or just run dont want that again thanks.

 

 

GFS 18z shows the low a bit further north than its 6z and 12z runs bringing more areas of the south into play. Not often you see the pink colour on this chart so close to our shores, and in the south in particular.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn668.png 

Hi Mike,

Do you not like the French?  If it slides south then Brittany-Normandy and across towards Belgium will take the hit.

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Its the weather.  You have NO choice

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I know

As Neill said earlier the more it deepens and gets caught in that jet the further north she seems to go looking thou the suit that seems to be the case and a very good call

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=14&ech=72&mode=0&carte=0

Yes, but Navgem has it further south and very potent

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013102518/navgemfr-0-60.png?26-00 

  A pretty scary chart, I think.  Also, it's a bit slower than the 12z - by about 100-150 miles.

The T+48 chart looks very close to the NAE at the same point - which may mean nothing but perhaps lends weight to Navgem being nearer the likely evolution.

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People need to get a grip, yes it will be very windy but it's not going to be October 1987 style or anything like we have up north, about 10% of the country will get effected by this and that's only right at the south coast and channel islands. Overall it won't effect many people. Mass hysteria by the controlled media.

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I think you're way off on this one. The system is looking deeper with almost every run. It has the potential to be up there with October 1987 is there is a sting jet. And even if it isn't, it still looks like bringing gusts up to 90mph across Kent and the wider SE possibly, and almost as strong from Cornwall right along to Sussex (and a fair way north, to London). This will cause some pretty major damage all told. As it pulls away it could affect EA, Lincs, etc pretty badly too. This is NOT just a limited "right at the south coast and channel islands" affair. It will affect a large number of people because these are pretty heavily populated areas.

This will be somewhat worse that anything I've experienced "up north", unless you mean NW Scotland?

Finally, what we have in here and in other weather forums is generated by the models, not the media. 

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Each to their own... 

By the way, several million people live along the south coast.  No mass hysteria on here, just sober and realistic analysis of some unusual  charts.

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No not just NW Scotland I would be surprised if it ends up as bad as the one in 2007 which I'm very surprised you forgot about as it wasn't a very long time ago?

See below, we had winds of around 80mph here and winds gusts nearly 100mph were recorded elsewhere and that storm impacted a much larger area. I think people are getting too soft for their own good. I'll change my mind if it moves further North.

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGCC/2007/1/18/DailyHistory.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1539936/100mph-storms-leave-trail-of-death-and-chaos.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6272193.stm

 

 

 

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You may think people are going soft but I think you're guilty of reading the charts very badly. If you don't recognise the difference between gales over heavily populated areas and gales over less populated ones then may I suggest you give it some thought please?

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Not going to add anything about some of the comments in here as Nick has said it all.

Some interesting points this evening are:
1) Most of the NWP continues to slightly sharpen the intensity whilst keeping the same track range. Timing may have slightly edged towards another delay in arrival which raises the possibility of a daytime impact in some southeastern areas
2) MetO weektime staff being recalled to HQ Sunday afternoon to assist in forecasting operations
3) A decision will be made, possibly Sat pm, to upgrade the warning to RED should the high-res GM and Mogreps output continue their confident and repeatable track and intensity
4) Sting Jet probabilities look fairly low at the moment but that could change once phasing and the prominence of any downsurge in the 'baroclinic notch' is established

With all the relevant data available, this is looking like a high-impact event for areas not accustomed to windspeeds in excess of 80mph.

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I already have, 2007 was more severe compared to what is predicted on Monday and over a more populated area, simples! But this event hasn't happened yet so we shall wait and see before drawing a line under it.

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Just to add, about 60% of the GEFS ensembles move the depression slightly further N. Along with this, a secondary wave of severe gale force winds are shown on the western flank of the low to affect places like Wales, southern parts of N England and the Midlands. The Metoffice BBC graphics are also showing a *very* tight squeeze in the isobars around the Cheshire/N Midlands area as the low exits. This doesn't seem to show in the operational output though so is probably a low risk.

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Indeed. The charts show nothing to give any confidence that this is being over-played. At least with many schools closed for half-term there will be less traffic and fewer people around on Monday morning, which should reduce the risks somewhat.

Let's see what Saturday's output brings.

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Remember to keep an eye on the radar sun/mon for one of these little beasts

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120103_met9_wv_anim.gif

The roar below a sting jet is unique especially in around tall buildings (1998 and 2012 here)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.8577H

Urgh, now certainly looking set to be a messy, wild and noisy day for around here come Monday. Not good what with me living right next to the coast, but hopefully the built up hilly bit to my west may absorb some of the worst of the wind especially since it looks like the winds will be coming in from the SW rather than straight in from the Channel. But it'll be useless should a rare sting jet form anyway.

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Realisation is now setting in that this is going to be a nasty one. Time to seriously start thinking about tying down all unsecured assets in the garden etc.

I can see nothing in this mornings output to suggest ' a downgrade' in intensity. 

If anything the GFS continues to re-align with its earlier thougths of a daytime storm now affecting much of southern and SE Britain.

I am sure a RED warning will be issued at some point should the models firm up on this being a storm that rips through the heart of southern Britain at morning rush hour on the 28th. Anything in the 70-80mph will cause a lot of problems. There are trees in leaf, we have had nearly 100mm of rain in recent weeks meaning the ground is wet and there are a lot of old stock in the form of trees that havent been blown over by strong gales in recent years. 

Ian..I would like to say that you will be protected by the hill with the scary looking turreted house on the top..analysis however suggests that for at least the first 3 or 4 hours the direction of this wind will be SSW. You need a WSW'ly to be somewhat protected from this.

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Just had a quick look at the latest fax chart and track to me looks similar to previous runs with the centre of the low roughly traversing England from Plymouth and exiting around The Wash area. That would mean the strongest winds would impact much of the south of England. I'm not sure about intensity as the fax charts are hard to tell though it certainly looks deep on exit. Speeds towards 80mph looks to me to be realistic at this stage. But as we have all said, it is a very fluid situation.

What I would say on potential damage is that it is a fact that buildings in exposed locations (i.e. around the UK's coast and mountain areas) are built to witstand higher weather impacts from the wind than those built elsewhere. I have re-roofed two houses now and if you are slating in a "low risk" area you do not have to fix and overlap roof tiles as you would in "high risk" areas. So up here for example you need to put in two nails and a clip for each tile plus a big overlap. Where as in low impact areas you can get away with a single clip or nail only and less of an overlap. The weight of other tiles above will hold everything down in most cases. That's fine until a high impact gale happens in a low risk area and suddely roof tiles lift and come lose. Another example in older houses rafters are not physically fixed to the walls with straps or brackets. They relied on the roffs weight to stay in place, which 99.9% of the timne is fine. But sometimes we see near complete roofs being taken off by the wind. In high risk areas roof timbers have to have hurricane straps fitted to hold the building fabric together. Obviously flying tiles can do a lot of damage. I'm not saying it will happen, but at 80mph there is a high risk of damage to roof tiles, even in areas prone to high winds (I know because I've had to repair high wind damage before).

This is a deep storm which would be noteworthy whereever it hit. People should keep an eye on the MO warnings and get ready by clearing up lose stuff in their gardens etc. If it doesn't come off - better to have been safe - we can all argue it after the event in this forum 

A difference from the 1987 and 2000 storms, as I remember them, is that then on both occasions the storm, though violent, was relatively short-lived. In 1987 we went to bed wondering if the storm would arrive (ho! ho!) and by the middle of the following morning it was back to a steady breeze and people were out and about clearing up [in mid-Kent]

This time, the forecasts e.g. for Chichester show sustained high winds continuously from 10pm Saturday through to 6pm Monday - bad news for trees whose roots will be weakened beforehand and for people trying to clear up afterwards

Current top forecast gust from a quick suvey of S Coast locations seems to be Ventnor IoW at 114 km/h

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Also very exposed in this area with Canvey being flat and in the Thames. These charts show the highest pink intensity and suggests between midday and 6pm this could make landfall in the SE. Hope was this was all going to move south, but the charts appear to be firming up run to run as we get near the time.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn608.png 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn668.png 

What are the chances of seeing tornados appear as the storm exits?