Monday's predicted storm· Page 10

glenogle
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 19:26:24

I certainly do remember the 1987 `hurricane` i was out fishing the night it came in.

Around midnight everything went dead still and eerilly quiet,even the canada geese stopped honking and the lake was like a mirror.

Total calm,something didn`t feel right,it was spooky!

Ten minutes or so passed and a gentle breeze started and with each passing minute it became stronger and stronger.

By 12.30-1am we all decided to wind the rods in and head back to our cars,leaving the gear in our swims.

By now trees were being shaken like rag dolls and it was quite frightening.We all moved our cars into open ground away from

the overhanging trees and it was decided to stay put rather than risk driving home.

The wind was so feroucious the car was actually rocking like it was being shaken and a constant roar accompanied the now torrential rain.This was one hell of a storm and a bit scary but we all agreed the safest thing to do was to stay put and wait.

By the time daylight broke the winds had dropped to a mere gale.We emerged from our cars and took a walk back to where we had set up for the night.The scene that we saw can only be described as total devestation! All round the lake fallen trees including massive oak trees had been felled,branches and debris everywhere.

It was a night i`ll always remember and whilst most people were tucked up in bed i and my friends experienced the `87 `hurricane` first hand. It showed how powerful and destructive nature can be when she gets angry.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine

Lets get the important info though seeing as you left your rods in..... did you catch anything?

Interesting synoptics coming up. Will be a joy to watch from afar. Enjoy/Stay Safe whichever your preference is. We had bawbag, now its the Souths turn to enjoy.

LLTNP 105m asl

GIBBY
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 19:29:54

#227

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all.

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas.

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset

Midsomer Norton and Radstock Weather Website

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Gandalf The White
Advanced Member Topic Starter

25 October 2013 19:37:39

#228

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all.

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas.

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

Originally Posted by: GIBBY

Thanks Martin.

I've had another look at the UKMO chart after seeing your comment - I still think it's heading for South Wales not the Bristol Channel?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U60-21.GIF?25-19

As you say, Navgem is even worse.

Not looking forward to this. In 1987 we were woken by the wind howling and the occasional bang and crash. Could be similar, I fear.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 19:39:27

#229

Shafernaker discusses the forecasting process on Facebook:

Tomasz Schafernaker

2 hours ago

UK Storm:
These type of violent storms form very suddenly in the Atlantic, and they are driven by a crazily fast jet-stream. The early a.m. Monday storm hasn't even been born yet and, until it is, nothing is set in stone. Science however tells us that it's probably coming.

For really extreme winds to occur something called a 'sting-jet' must accompany the storm as it hits us…it’s like additional trouble…double-trouble. A sting-jet is just a fancy name for an ‘immense rush of wind' near the centre of the storm. This rush of wind happens when freakishly-fast moving air from high up in the atmosphere drops to the ground and spreads out like a fan. It can wreak havoc and cover an area of a few counties to a large chunk of the country - it doesn't often happen. Moreover, the sting-jet lasts only for a while and occurs at time when the storm is intensifying most rapidly. The Monday storm may or may not bring a sting-jet. Also, the Monday storm may turn out to be less powerful or swing further south and hit France…or maybe do something in between and brush the Channel coasts.

The current, assessed forecast calls for the Monday storm to be crossing the UK at a stage when it’s intensifying like crazy and taking a really ‘bad path’ for the South.

What if the sting-jet doesn’t happen or it ‘fizzles out’ before reaching us? We are then in for a very blowy day, with land gales and a little damage here and there…just another winter storm.

So, we are having to asses the power of the storm; the likelihood of a sting-jet and the overall path of storm…not easy! It’s almost like doing that thing with your hand on top of your head and on your tummy at the same time. In 1987, a sting-jet crossed the SE of England at just the right (or wrong!) time. In the far North and Northwest of Scotland sting-jets are fairly common. Other ‘severe’ gales can also cross the UK without the need for a sting-jet. All these winds…tut!

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Essan
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 19:45:55

#230

People keep referring to the October 87 storm but what about the 30th October 2000 storm? That was some storm that even brought snow. Will it surpass this event?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1

Well as I said, the big question is whether it will equal the December 2011 storm

Although I think there have been stronger ones since .....

I know the media think Britain stops at Watford...... but they are wrong!

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 19:50:14

#231

People keep referring to the October 87 storm but what about the 30th October 2000 storm? That was some storm that even brought snow. Will it surpass this event?

Originally Posted by: Essan

Well as I said, the big question is whether it will equal the December 2011 storm

Although I think there have been stronger ones since .....

I know the media think Britain stops at Watford...... but they are wrong!

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1

The exact track of the storm won't be known until a few hours before it hits - currently, our region is forecast to receive a direct hit - yet a hundred miles further north than currently projected and we will miss the worst of the gales. I will have to check with Michael Fish whether a hurricane is headed our way.

New world order coming.

KevBrads1
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 20:01:33

#232

Another October storm was the 27th October 2002 gale. That was quite a nasty storm.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

bowser
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 20:14:12

#233

You Southerners preparing for a stiff breeze on Monday? :)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/7/Record_wind_speed_-_13_February_1989.pdf

idj20
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 20:21:11

#234

Shafernaker discusses the forecasting process on Facebook:

Tomasz Schafernaker

2 hours ago

UK Storm:
These type of violent storms form very suddenly in the Atlantic, and they are driven by a crazily fast jet-stream. The early a.m. Monday storm hasn't even been born yet and, until it is, nothing is set in stone. Science however tells us that it's probably coming.

For really extreme winds to occur something called a 'sting-jet' must accompany the storm as it hits us…it’s like additional trouble…double-trouble. A sting-jet is just a fancy name for an ‘immense rush of wind' near the centre of the storm. This rush of wind happens when freakishly-fast moving air from high up in the atmosphere drops to the ground and spreads out like a fan. It can wreak havoc and cover an area of a few counties to a large chunk of the country - it doesn't often happen. Moreover, the sting-jet lasts only for a while and occurs at time when the storm is intensifying most rapidly. The Monday storm may or may not bring a sting-jet. Also, the Monday storm may turn out to be less powerful or swing further south and hit France…or maybe do something in between and brush the Channel coasts.

The current, assessed forecast calls for the Monday storm to be crossing the UK at a stage when it’s intensifying like crazy and taking a really ‘bad path’ for the South.

What if the sting-jet doesn’t happen or it ‘fizzles out’ before reaching us? We are then in for a very blowy day, with land gales and a little damage here and there…just another winter storm.

So, we are having to asses the power of the storm; the likelihood of a sting-jet and the overall path of storm…not easy! It’s almost like doing that thing with your hand on top of your head and on your tummy at the same time. In 1987, a sting-jet crossed the SE of England at just the right (or wrong!) time. In the far North and Northwest of Scotland sting-jets are fairly common. Other ‘severe’ gales can also cross the UK without the need for a sting-jet. All these winds…tut!

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

I've never liked Thomaz as he tires me out when I watch him on TV (we had him as our local BBC weather presenter for a time) . . . but for some reason, having read this posting has caused me to warm to him this evening.

Folkestone Harbour.

Matty H
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 20:24:39

#235

I think it's a poorly presented piece. Although if it's just his personal thoughts on FB, then fair enough.

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member Topic Starter

25 October 2013 20:27:16

#236

People keep referring to the October 87 storm but what about the 30th October 2000 storm? That was some storm that even brought snow. Will it surpass this event?

Originally Posted by: Essan

Well as I said, the big question is whether it will equal the December 2011 storm

Although I think there have been stronger ones since .....

I know the media think Britain stops at Watford...... but they are wrong!

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1

On this occasion Andy I will be very happy if the storm is also south of Watford....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Nordic Snowman
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 20:31:28

#237

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all.

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas.

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Thanks Martin.

I've had another look at the UKMO chart after seeing your comment - I still think it's heading for South Wales not the Bristol Channel?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U60-21.GIF?25-19

As you say, Navgem is even worse.

Not looking forward to this. In 1987 we were woken by the wind howling and the occasional bang and crash. Could be similar, I fear.

Originally Posted by: GIBBY

I have a feeling it will all blow over without too much fuss i.e anticlimax.

No need to worry imo as I can't see it even getting close to the 1987 strengths. 87 had both the strength and duration, whereas from what I am seeing regarding Sun night/Monday, we are talking just a few hours.

It has been a while since the UK had a potent autumn storm and maybe this is a factor regarding some of the hype, especially nowadays with social media providing an extra means of ramping things up.

It will probably slide S

Bjorli, Norway

Website

bowser
Advanced Member

25 October 2013 20:32:33

#238

Since when have 80mph gusts hit the south coast once or twice a year?

I'm 27 years old and I don't remember there ever being gusts that strong across southern England. Coastal or otherise (I'm too young to remember 1990 or 1987).

Originally Posted by: doctormog

The October 1987 storm was the worst in SE England since 1703 and the second worst in the pst 600 years.

The biggest one ever was one in the 14th Century which is reckoned to have delivered gusts to 140 mph across most of central England and Wales .

Originally Posted by: Col

140 mph winds would surely have completely destroyed all the forrests in the affected areas. I've never heard of this event, how are the wind speeds estimated, are there any accounts of woodland being completely flattened?

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

It wouldn't necessarily have uprooted all trees, especially if it was late autumn or winter time.

Fraserburgh had a gust of 142mph back in Fenbruary 1989 and I don't think all the trees although there may not be that many) in the affected area were destroyed. Forests themselves, if dense enough, can probably shelter some of their own trees by others acting as a form of wind break. I guess the worst combination is saturated ground, very strong winds and trees in leaf which cause the worst damage. Unfortunately that may be a possibility on Monday.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986

Didn't notice your post... I experienced that night as a 6 year old in Fraserburgh. The wind had this strange high pitched screaming sound which I have never heard since and we get severe gales frequently up here. It was scary and I could tell my parents were slightly unnerved as well.

I can vaguely remember the extent of the damage around my house, but not so much the wider area. There wasn't much made of it from what I can remember - we had a short discussion with the teacher about it the following day where other kids were telling stories about blown down chimneys etc. Most of the houses are made from solid granite,so the damage was limited. Roofing slates, chimneys, sheds etc...

Story goes that the anemometer (which was situated at the Academy school) broke during the back end of the storm - not sure if there is any truth to that though.