I hope so. Maybe a case of over-analysing it and worrying about it too much, but I will be honest and say that it is making me nervous as I seem to be right in the firing line for it.
  Does make me wonder how we got by before the internet era as we were blissfuly unaware of it all until at least a few hours beforehand. Now we can see it coming from days away but there isn't a lot we can do once it's upon us anyway!

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18Z has it less deep, further south, and wouldn't produce particularly frightening wind speeds. 

Fax has it a lot deeper and further north.

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Good morning everyone. Here is the latest report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 25th 2013.

All models show a major storm system affecting parts of England and Wales as we move out of the weekend and into the start of next week. In the short term there will be plenty of rain and showers scattered about the UK in fresh to strong West or SW winds. the rain could be heavy in places as a cocktail of troughs cross the UK in the strong breeze. It will feel rather colder than of late. The main problems begin on Sunday evening as a vicious storm system which develops explosively down to the SW of the UK on Sunday whistles across Wales on its way to the North Sea and Northern Europe. Wind gusts of 70-80mls per hour could occur across Southern England for a time in the first hours of Monday morning. through the day the storms transfer east out into the North sea and things calm down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly and a window of dry and quiet weather is shown to develop for all for a time around midweek as a ridge of High pressure crosses East.

GFS then turns things rather unsettled again as Low pressure, this time well to the NW brings a return to rain and strong winds at times to all but more concentrated towards the NW. This pattern continues throughout the rest of the run with all areas seeing some rain though temperatures will never be far from average values for late October and early November.

UKMO shows a ridge having crossed the UK on Wednesday with a short drier spell with light winds before low pressure moves in towards the NW again on Thursday with increasing winds, cloud and rain rolling in off the Atlantic towards the North and West in particular.

GEM today shows an unsettled and changeable pattern beyond the midweek quieter period with a return to brisk and sometimes strong West or SW winds with rain at times and temperatures close to average.

NAVGEM too shows changeable conditions but with High pressure closer to the South at times the bulk of the strongest winds and heaviest rains will be felt across Northern and Western areas with some brighter and drier periods across the South. Temperatures will be close to or maybe a fraction above average at times.

ECM is locked well into a changeable pattern from the midweek next week with spells of rain blowing through on a fresh to strong Westerly breeze. there will inevitabky be some drier and brighter periods especially in the South at first and between bands of rain sunshine and showers are possible. Temperatures will be close to average for the time of year.

The GFS Ensembles look less wet in the South this morning with a trend towards milder weather with above average uppers over us from the exit of the early week storm. In the north the sine wave pattern of a mild day, then a cooler one is noted with very changeable conditions in terms of rain and wind amounts too look likely.

The Jet Stream shows a fairly incessant pattern of the flow undulating in a SW to NE direction across the UK over the next few weeks. High pressure will be present over Europe keeping much of the UK on the mild side of the jet flow with any cold air held well north of the Jet flow and the UK over the period.

In Summary the weather will remain unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times for all. The storm system of Sunday night and Monday morning will be the most severe weather of the period with the UK reverting to a much more average period thereafter with the rain and showers being heaviest and most prolonged to the North and West of Britain along with the strong winds. temperatures will be always close to average and probably above at times, especially in the South.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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Thank you Martin..

Bit more wary of Sunday into Monday now..

 

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Over rated in what sense?

70-80mph winds for this part of the UK, though strong they're nothing exceptional.

Sorry to stray off topic but that is just not correct. I live on Hayling (overlooking the Solent) and always keep an eye on www.chimet.co.uk during periods of intersting whether. I think the highest gust I have ever seen recorded (in the last 10 years or so) was just over 60mph. I'd be very surprised if there was anything in excess of 70mph in the 10 years before that.  I therefore think it would be fair to say that 80mph would be truly exceptional in southern hampshire.  Yes, it is windy right on the coast but not quite as windy as you suggest.

So I guess we'll just have to wait and see if we reach anything like that on Sun/Mon?

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Figure 1. Slap bang on Hayling... just over 80mph

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/2012_janwind 

What you just stated is ludicrously wrong. Highest in 10 years in coastal Hampshire was just over 60mph? Sir may I advice you find yourself another source for your local/ regional weather stats.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Friday October 25th 2013.

All models show an unsettled and breezy weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as the weekend evolves. A Brisk showery SW flow over Western and Northern Britain will weaken overnight as winds decrease. A window of drier weather tomorrow will be superseded by a trough of low pressure crossing ESE across the UK with a band of heavy rain and squally winds crossing the UK tomorrow afternoon and night. Following that a very strong WSW showery flow will affect the UK through Sunday with gales in the North and West and showers heavy with hail and thunder in places.

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all.

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas.

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This doesn't last long in the North but holds on in the South with a drier spell before a weakening cold front brings a spell of rain SE for all. Again pressure recovers in the South and a further drier interlude develops down here which in turn is quickly displaced by a return to Autumnal wind and rain from deep depressions crossing East to the North of Scotland.

UKMO shows pressure relatively High over the South from midweek but with a mild, moist and quite strong Westerly flow thick cloud and rain and drizzle is likely with the North seeing some heavier rain at times.

GEM has only minimal improvements next week with a strong Westerly flow with rain at times maintained with temperatures close to average. Later in the run a cold incursion is likely with a spell of Northerly winds with wintry showers across northern areas for a time and some night frost. This proves very temporary though as mild Atlantic winds flood back along with Low pressure with rain at times in strong breezes.

NAVGEM shows pressure building to the South of the UK warding off the worst of Low pressure further North to principally continue to affect the North of the UK. The South is shown drier but not entirely so as a front is shown to get hung up over Southern Britain with rain at times with High pressure building strongly close to the West.

ECM tonight shows a continued changeable and sometimes windy theme as winds remain Westerly. pressure does build midweek across the South with a calmer spell here before all areas become prone to active Atlantic low pressure areas moving across the North of the UK with troughs bringing frequent bouts of rain and showers for all. It then looks like becoming colder from the North on Day 10.

The GFS Ensembles do maintain an unsettled and changeable picture with rain at times and winds blowing strongly at times too. Temperatures are likely to remain quite close to average overall but there could be some milder interludes in the South and the increasing chance of some colder incursions of air from the North later.

The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the reliable future. It will fluctuate North and South of this general position at times in response to deep lows crossing East to the North and higher pressure to the South of the UK.

In Summary the storm system on Monday is the main talking point and there is still some differences of opinion on the course of the Low. once passed the weather quickly calms to a more standard Autumn pattern of Low pressure to the North and higher pressure to the South giving these areas at least a window of drier weather next week. In the longer term conditions look like remaining or becoming changeable for all with rain and wind at times and temperatures never far from average but the North may see some colder incursions later and these may extend a little further South at times.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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So... Not been by for a while. Anything going on?

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Pretty quiet from what I can see

A few little titbits that the fi nwp may be about to get rather more interesting than it has been recently.

Without intentionally wanting to be sensationalist about it, I have a very bad feeling about this storm - the synoptics are ripe for an explosive "bomb" which will, if it transpires as it appears it will, uproot many thousands of stalwart trees and moribund roof tiles.  Rationalising,  I would say it is part of the natural variation of British weather with a sweet kiss from a warming atmopsphere.  No apologies offered to AGW skeptics

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Ah, the age old conundrum - how many "once in a hundred year" events do you need to see before it is decided that they are no longer "once in a hundred year" events.....

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No one in their right mind wants this thread to become part of the climate forum, so I will not pursue that angle. 

For me, Im feeling ever so slightly perturbed by the synoptics, I hope there will be little human and material harm done.  But I fear this will be a bad one.

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Good morning. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday October 26th 2013.

All models show an unsettled and breezy weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as the weekend evolves. A Brisk showery SW flow over Western and Northern Britain will weaken overnight as winds decrease. A window of drier weather tomorrow will be superseded by a trough of low pressure crossing ESE across the UK with a band of heavy rain and squally winds crossing the UK tomorrow afternoon and night. Following that a very strong WSW showery flow will affect the UK through Sunday with gales in the North and West and showers heavy with hail and thunder in places.

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting SW and all of Southern England with the strongest gusts near the South and Bristol Channel coasts worst of all.

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 975mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 960mbs with the strongest winds here over all of Southern England and South Wales with gusts to 80mph with exposure. Some structural damage would be likely.

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 980mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 970mbs as it leaves the East Anglian coast. Southernmost  Britain bordering the English Channel coasts would experience the strongest winds with storm force gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales at 975mbs on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon at sub 970mbs with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales for a time through the day.

Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This holds for a day or two across Southern Britain while the North and West quickly become influenced by a strong SW flow with rain at times. Things would turn milder again for many. Thereafter strong winds and rain are a regular feature shown as deep Low pressures continue to cross just to the North of the UK with bands of rain alternating with squally showers in temperatures turning rather chillier with time. Late in the run High pressure replaces Low pressure from off the Atlantic with frost and persistent fog becoming the problem by the end of the run.

UKMO shows pressure relatively High over the South from midweek but with a mild, moist and quite strong Westerly flow thick cloud and rain and drizzle is likely with the North seeing some heavier rain at times.

GEM has a quieter spell midweek with some dry weather in the South. However as the run progresses it quickly become very unsettled again with deep low pressure areas crossing East over or to the North of the UK with strong Westerly winds bringing bands of rain alternating with squally showers across all areas. As winds turn more to the NW late in the run it would turn rather colder later.

NAVGEM shows pressure building to the South of the UK warding off the worst of Low pressure further North to principally continue to affect the North of the UK. This would have the affect of restricting the amounts of rain reaching the South for a time midweek before all areas return to windy and unsettled weather late in the run as Low pressure digs down deeper into Britain next weekend.

ECM this morning shows a continued changeable and sometimes windy theme as winds remain Westerly. Pressure does build midweek across the South with a calmer spell here before all areas become prone to an active Atlantic Low pressure area up to the North of the UK with troughs bringing bands of rain and showers for all in a strong to gale force Westerly flow. The end of the run shows changeable weather continuing with Low pressure remaining close by and it may become somewhat colder by Day 10.

The GFS Ensembles do maintain an unsettled and changeable picture with rain at times and winds blowing strongly at times too. Temperatures are likely to remain quite close to average overall but there is a lot of spread between the members later, both warm and cold of the average as successive periods of alternating warm maritime and colder air masses cross the UK.

The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the reliable future. It will fluctuate North and South of this general position at times in response to deep Low pressure areas approaching and moving away, most of which cross East over or to the North of the UK.

In Summary the storm system on Monday is the main talking point and there is some firming up on the path of the storm. It looks like it will cross from Pembrokeshire across Wales and the Midlands then out into the North sea near the Humber. It depth looks like being between 965mbs to 980mbs making it a powerful storm on Southern britain standards so some structural damage is likely along with traffic chaos on Monday morning. Once passed the weather quickly calms to a more standard Autumn pattern of Low pressure to the North and higher pressure to the South giving these areas at least a window of drier weather in the middle of next week. In the longer term conditions look like remaining or becoming changeable for all with rain and wind at times and temperatures never far from average but the North may see some colder incursions later and these may extend a little further South at times.

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Thanks Martin a much appreciated model int . We've not seen the model isobars that tight around here for a long long time. Still anything south of coventry could well end up.as a red warning.

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I've been tracking a very similar system (and slightly further north) track of a possible storm around +144.

This looks similar in shape and scope to the one on our doorstep, with a roaring jet still in force.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15014.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15614.png

Developing into THIS by next Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png

A long way off of course, but this has been showing up on a few GFS runs lately.

Could tomorrow's storm be a fore-runner of what's to come?

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November could be a stormy month in general actually considering how warm the North Atlantic is at the moment.

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Very stormy and damaging up to that point

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1 or 2 aweek would not be nice.....

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Waiting to see what Gavin P has to say on this.

 

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Here's the chart for midnight and 12pm 16th October 1987.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=12&map=0&mode=0

 

On the face of it there's a lot of similarities - although things are never exactly the same.  It may not get quite as deep this time (although that remains to be seen) - but we may have winds still strong for the Monday rushhour - whereas in 1987, the storm had mainly gone through by that point.

I have a book on the Great storm of 87 which contains a synoptic chart for 3am - showing the centre over Bristol - with a pressure reading of 956mb - so it's hard to see us matching that with this coming storm - but I still expect notable destruction to woodland/property on Monday etc. 

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Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday October 26th 2013.

All models show an unsettled and windy end to the weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as tomorrow evolves. A SW wind will blow a trough through East overnight with a short squally band of rain. Following on behind will be a period of showers and clear or sunny intervals as Low pressure moves East t the North of Scotland. Some of the showers will be very heavy with hail and thunder possible in places accompanied by a strong and gusty WSW wind. Things will briefly calm down tomorrow afternoon in the SW though this will be the lull before the storm.

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain could be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts in the wake of the Low.

UKMO has the Low tracking into Pembrokeshore at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning, then crossing it through the Midlands and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest WNW 70mph+ winds affecting SW and all of Southern England in the wake of the Low with the strongest gusts near the South and Bristol Channel coasts.

GEM has a much less developed feature tonight at around 980mbs along the same path as the other output. Strengths of wind would be modified as a result at between 60-70mph in the strongest gusts near coastal headlands and hills.

NAVGEM shows the Low as a vigorous and rapidly deepening feature at around 980mbs reaching the Western Bristol Channel and moving rapidly ENE across the Midlands and out into the North Sea at sub 970mbs. The wwind strengths would be around 80mph with the strongest gusts in the WNW flow in the rapidly rising pressure behind the Low.

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales at 975mbs on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon at sub 970mbs with Westerly or NW severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales for a time through the day.

Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This holds for a day or two across Southern Britain while the North and West quickly become influenced by a strong SW flow with rain at times. Things would turn milder again for many. Through the remainder of the run the Atlantic continues to hold the calling cards as Low pressure remains to the North of the UK with rain and strong westerly winds and just short drier and cooler interludes, these chiefly in the North.

UKMO shows pressure higher for a time across the South midweek before Low pressure regains some control later with a strong Westerly flow returning. It will be relatively mild though through most of Britain to end next week.

GEM keeps things very buoyant across the Atlantic and the UK with mild SW winds continuing to carry spells of rain and strong winds across the UK, very strong at times as some intense Low pressures pass by. Late in the run temperatures may fall back a little as an air source from Greenland develops.

NAVGEM keeps pressure High close to the South for a time midweek and a little way after before a deep Atlantic Low to the NW steers strong and mild SW winds back to all areas with rain and showers at times.

ECM shows a quiet and more sedate spell of weather midweek with the South becoming dry at times. Later in the week Low pressure returns from the North with wet and windy spells for all again with temperatures falling back to average levels and considerably lower at the end of the run as low pressure drags cold air South behind a low moving South of the UK.

The GFS Ensembles show a very wide spread from quite early in the run. There are more members on the mild side of the run with few showing much in the way of colder weather. Low pressure will be dominant throughout with a Westerly bias to the winds.

The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the foreseeable future.

In Summary leaving the storm system aside on Monday the weather continues to look volatile and often windy with spells of rain and showers for all. Temperatures will generally hold out well with little chance of frost or fog. A drier interlude looks very possible though for the South at least towards the middle of the coming week.

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Thanks martin

The main thing about the October 1987 storm was the intense deepening of the low the final couple of hours as it headed inalnd. The lowest central pressure was 952 which was and still is the lowest pressure reading for October in England on record ever. That record will take some beating and it could well be a record which stands for centuries.

 

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