Good morning. Here is today's browse through the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 22nd 2013.
All models continue to programme unsettled weather for the reliable future with the next three to four days agreed upon by all output. The mild SSW flow of recent days is replaced by a fresher Westerly flow, still somewhat showery but less heavy and thundery than of late. A ridge is then shown to move up across the UK tonight and tomorrow with a window of dry and bright weather for all tomorrow. By Friday a new Low will be showing it's hand towards the South and West with cloud and heavy rain moving NE across England and Wales through the day. This then becomes absorbed by a large Atlantic depression up to the NW to make way for a very windy and unsettled weekend with showers or longer spells of rain in near gale West or SW winds for all and temperatures back down to average levels or maybe a little below in the North where it may become chilly enough by the beginning of next week for some hill snow over Scotland.
GFS then shows a small but vigorous Low crossing East over Britain early next week with gales and heavy rain for all, severe on Western coasts for a time. This then is followed by a temporary rather chilly showery NW flow before a weak ridge moves East across the UK around midweek and in turn followed by a return to cloud and mild SW winds with rain by the end of the week. This then paves the way for the rest of the run as Northern and Western areas become most prone to strong winds and rain at times while the South and East close to higher pressure over Europe sees only occasional rain as weakening cold fronts pass through. It would be relatively mild over the UK but not as mild as recently.
UKMO looks very disturbed this morning for early next week with a chilly and strong NW flow next Tuesday following a potentially stormy spell for a time early in the week. Most areas would see some sunshine but squally showers and with temperatures much lower than of late some snow over Northern mountains would be likely.
GEM today brings back it's vicious little Low crossing England and Wales early next week with potential gales, possibly damaging in places buffeting Wales and Southern England for a time along with heavy rain. As it clears the weather becomes showery and then calms down briefly under a transient ridge before further Low pressure and attendant rain and showers take over for all again before the end of next week. Temperatures would be near or perhaps a little below for a time in the NW flow in the wake of the Low early next week but all this is academic in the strength of the wind as it would feel chilly everywhere.
NAVGEM is also very disturbed next week with trough and Low pressure streaming over the UK through the week with spells of rain alternating with showers. It would be windy with gales at times though without the storm system shown by some other output nothing out of the ordinary is shown by NAVGEM. Temperatures would be close to normal overall, perhaps rather cold in the North at times.
ECM brings the disturbance next week just that bit further South which would take any real strong winds down over France. However, it is close enough to provide a lot of rain following a wet weekend for the South. Later in the run pressure rises somewhat over the South with the strongest winds left for Scotland while Southern areas though rather cloudy and damp will see some drier interludes in much less wind than previously. Near average temperatures look likely for all from ECM next week.
The GFS Ensembles show an oscillating pattern between the members suggesting a mobile pattern alternating between mild and wet weather with cooler and showery weather through the next few weeks. There is a more definitive dip in temperatures early next week, which proves short-lived when rainfall is at it's peak. Thereafter the rainfall will not be quite as pronounced in the South with some drier interludes in between the rain. Winds from most members ares shown to be fresh to strong for most of the UK for much of the run.
The Jet Stream shows the flow currently to the South of the UK moving North over the coming days to the UK where it continues to blow over in an oscillating fashion for the foreseeable future.
In Summary today the outook remains disturbed, often windy and potentially stormy for a short while. All models bring in some sort of disturbance early next week which ranges from a damaging storm to just a wave depression running East in the flow with no more than a band of wind and rain. Which is right is hard to call at the moment but the potential is there for something rather nasty and will need to be watched in future outputs as the time draws nearer. Outside of that there is plenty of wind, rain and showers for all and with the recent unseasonal warmth behind us we can all expect to feel colder without it ever being very cold. Some output suggests a rise of pressure to the SE which as always in these situations is possible and would send the Jet Stream further North along with the depressions to bring some dry and mild weather back across the SE at times. Having said that it is just one of several options we are likely to see in the output over the coming days as the very volatile situation over the Atlantic continues.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset