Monday's predicted storm· Page 17

Larry Seinfeld
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 17:27:59

Its not an odd storm. I remember growing up in Yorkshire having 90mph winds. That was a long time ago but it does happen. Late 80's early 90's some pretty bad storms. Rotating Scud everybody thought they were gonna die, but we didn't die, we're all still here.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Clearly joking???

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Of course. I was the only person moronic enough to go outside, and that's where I saw it. Everyone was worried though. That was South Yorkshire, pretty hard to get wind that strong on the eastern side of the Pennines. All I'm saying is that this has happened before. It will happen again. People should be prepared absolutely.

Torquay.
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QQQQ
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 17:41:18

#402

[quote=Rob K;543520][quote=Nordic Snowman;543515] It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it

Btw, flew back from Boston MA to Heathrow earlier today. Gained an hour due to the jet stream roaring from the west. The in flight map had a tailwind of 196mph at one point(37000 feet) and the plane was moving at 750mph as opposed to the usual 550 to 600

Originally Posted by: Sevendust

It's great when that happens you don't feel a thing apart from circling Heathrow waiting for a landing & parking slot.

Cheers
"Q"
Poole, Dorset
39m ASL
Poole Current Conditions

nsrobins
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 17:45:17

#403

indeed the MO, and rightly so but it looks a bit more elongated to me and a tad further south, also very earlier on the main pivot was some 50 miles further south and slightly more east thus pushing it a little lower thus affecting less area of the uk imo. and only mo..

perhaps fax chart later will tell us more

does not look so bad t night on ukmo imo

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021

think met office willl have eye on ecm 2 night

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman

Have to say I don't agree - that shows a 970mb low slap bang across the UK with an extremely tight pressure gradient - that's a chart that the MO will take very seriously.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Looks a little more vigorous close-up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=21&ech=42&archive=0

Originally Posted by: beng

It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

You seemed to have conceded a bit of ground on your post the other day then Mike

Wet and windy with gales in exposed places would be at the far lower end of the error bars as it stands. All available data is projecting an 'untypical' storm - severe gales widely with storm force winds in exposed places.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:18:55

#404

It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman

I agree, Mike.

Nothing that doesn't hit somewhere in the UK at least once a year. But, because it's due to hit the south of England....

(PS - strange, my previous post seems to have disappeared)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
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nsrobins
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:25:38

#405

It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

I agree, Mike.

Nothing that doesn't hit somewhere in the UK at least once a year. But, because it's due to hit the south of England....

(PS - strange, my previous post seems to have disappeared)

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman

We've moved on from this theme, Martin. Perhaps after the event we can all compare it to UK storms of the past and see where it comes on the list.
New fax for 12Z Mon is out and evidentally HQ have favoured UM and ECM over GFS and NAE and take a 964mb low out over The Humber by this stage.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Medlock Vale Weather
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:42:01

#406

It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

I agree, Mike.

Nothing that doesn't hit somewhere in the UK at least once a year. But, because it's due to hit the south of England....

(PS - strange, my previous post seems to have disappeared)

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman

I agree with you there Saint and Mike at least there's a few now coming on board with this and being a bit more sceptical as to how bad it will end up. This storm better come off as bad or alot of people will be having egg on their faces come the end of Monday - the Met Office included. No doubt there will be a few poor sods will say what a "terrible" experience they've had with 40mph gusts.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

NickR
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:45:53

#407

It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather

I agree, Mike.

Nothing that doesn't hit somewhere in the UK at least once a year. But, because it's due to hit the south of England....

(PS - strange, my previous post seems to have disappeared)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

I agree with you there Saint and Mike at least there's a few now coming on board with this and being a bit more sceptical as to how bad it will end up. This storm better come off as bad or alot of people will be having egg on their faces come the end of Monday - the Met Office included. No doubt there will be a few poor sods will say what a "terrible" experience they've had with 40mph gusts.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman

OK, let's try something. Let's drop the whole oneupmanship thing, OK? It's boring. We had it last winter I recall and all it does is rile people up. If you disagree about the storm being potentially bad, then let's have charts and proper, reasoned arguments, rather than assertions which, if they turn out to be right, will be based more on luck than accurate analysis.

This isn't some "whose side are you on", little kids' game, which is how your post came across. Let's have proper, adult discussion.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

stophe
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:48:36

#408

Latest fax chart for monday midday.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif?26-12

doctormog
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:52:32

#409

Latest fax chart for monday midday.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif?26-12

Originally Posted by: stophe

And that chart IMO well and truly sidelines any comments about people saying it is not too bad or it's only down south. The weather resulting from such a pressure gradient would be notable almost anywhere but where it is a high population density and not used to such a storm, it takes on added significance (especially for the millions that live there!)

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

radiohead
Guest

26 October 2013 18:54:17

#410

Forgot to post the 12Z Hirlam earlier. Hopefully this downgrades on the 18Z because this is quite severe for parts.

http://static.weeronline.nl/images/expertkaarten/hirlam/europe/pressure/2013/10/26/201310261200-201310280600.png

http://static.weeronline.nl/images/expertkaarten/hirlam/europe/windbft/2013/10/26/201310261200-201310280300.png

John p
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:58:08

#411

Latest fax chart for monday midday.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif?26-12

Originally Posted by: doctormog

And that chart IMO well and truly sidelines any comments about people saying it is not too bad or it's only down south. The weather resulting from such a pressure gradient would be notable almost anywhere but where it is a high population density and not used to such a storm, it takes on added significance (especially for the millions that live there!)

Originally Posted by: stophe

A voice of reason😁

Camberley, Surrey

cowman
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 18:59:52

#412

Must say that fax chart looks very grim this storm is no joke for sure.

NickR
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:01:51

#413

Just removed a couple of posts. Mainly because I made the point that needed making a few minutes ago and don't want the issue to be kept running. No point giving it any more of an airing than it has already been given.

On topic now...

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

Osprey
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:05:10

#414

Just removed a couple of posts. Mainly because I made the point that needed making a few minutes ago and don't want the issue to be kept running. No point giving it any more of an airing than it has already been given. On topic now...

Originally Posted by: NickR

May I ask what HIRLAM is please?

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

Sevendust
Guest

26 October 2013 19:10:11

#415

Just removed a couple of posts. Mainly because I made the point that needed making a few minutes ago and don't want the issue to be kept running. No point giving it any more of an airing than it has already been given. On topic now...

Originally Posted by: Osprey

May I ask what HIRLAM is please?

Originally Posted by: NickR

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIRLAM

NickR
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:10:39

#416

Just removed a couple of posts. Mainly because I made the point that needed making a few minutes ago and don't want the issue to be kept running. No point giving it any more of an airing than it has already been given. On topic now...

Originally Posted by: Osprey

May I ask what HIRLAM is please?

Originally Posted by: NickR

It's a hi-res model that, as far as I know, generally has a good reputation.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

nickl
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:10:39

#417

docs post is right and i guess there will be some amazing funnelling of winds around the tallest office blocks in london on monday. not a day to be atop of the shard or even the london eye.

Osprey
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:12:35

#418

Just removed a couple of posts. Mainly because I made the point that needed making a few minutes ago and don't want the issue to be kept running. No point giving it any more of an airing than it has already been given. On topic now...

Originally Posted by: NickR

May I ask what HIRLAM is please?

Originally Posted by: Osprey

It's a hi-res model that, as far as I know, generally has a good reputation.

Originally Posted by: NickR

Thank you Nick

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

Osprey
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:20:46

#419

It's quite rough out here at the moment. Noticed quite a few squall lines came in from the west (Wales) on the radar and seem to have disappeared. now reappeared

With this approaching storm are we likely to get lightning tornadoes storm surge?

Edited by user 26 October 2013 19:22:54 | Reason: addition

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

Rob K
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:24:30

#420

docs post is right and i guess there will be some amazing funnelling of winds around the tallest office blocks in london on monday. not a day to be atop of the shard or even the london eye.

Originally Posted by: nickl

Glad I haven't got to go into London on Monday. It's a real wind tunnel outside my office even on moderately breezy days.

Those Hirlam charts look shocking. 25mb gradient between South Wales and South Devon. That is very close to 1987 territory.

Btw there has already beena fallen tree blocking the rail line near Haslemere this evening. Doesn't bode well.

Edited by user 26 October 2013 19:27:14 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Nordic Snowman
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 19:24:32

#421

Met Office now has gusts up to 78mph for Portsmouth early Monday morning:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/portsmouth-portsmouth#?tab=fiveDay&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=8&lon=-1.09&lat=50.79&fcTime=1382918400

It also now seems to be arriving a little later than say what was expected 24 hrs ago. Actually looking forward for some nowcasting excitement and though I have my doubts on the severity, I am hoping for some action.

Disclaimer: Enjoyment is purely weather-based.

Bjorli, Norway

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