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Rob K
26 October 2013 15:23:25

Latest NAE seems to send the worst winds south so perhaps we may dodge the bullet this time
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/26/basis06/ukuk/prty/13102806_2606.gif 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Direct hit on the Channel Islands there. Should be some spectacular waves crashing over the sea wall at Vazon!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Medlock Vale Weather
26 October 2013 15:24:37

Can anyone recall so much speculation and talk over a potential severe gale event? I remember the March 2008 storm, the media and speculation over that. It actually turned out for most areas, a bit of a flop away from the far south because despite the intensity of the low it wasn't compact.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


True I cannot remember an event as hyped up as this even when there's been worse storms further north and more widespread, but people these days will jump on the band waggon regardless so to not look isolated from other people. Anyway the latest NAE sends the worst of the storm and rainfall further south, I found the NAE was rather accurate last winter in regards to PPN especially 48 or so hours out.


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/26/basis12/ukuk/rsum/13102812_2612.gif

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
tinybill
26 October 2013 15:25:52



Hmmmm. My office is central London but we have staff coming in from Southampton, Worthing, Eastbourne, Ipswich, Norwich and of course myself from North Hertfordshire. One thing is for sure, I'm not going in to the Smoke on Monday if there is any chance of the railways leaving me marooned there...


Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld 


 nouthing  rong  with  ipswich  lol  just  that we  are  in line  for a  repeat  of  great storn  24 years ago here  which ipswich got smashed    !!!!


Marooned in Ipswich, that actually made me shudder. God bless those people heading to your office.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 

radiohead
26 October 2013 15:25:54
nsrobins
26 October 2013 15:29:29

I understand MetO are not too keen on the NAE 06Z run but I see the 12Z run just out has closed the low up again and nudged it a tad North which is reversing the general trend of the last 9 hrs.
The 12Z still wants to delay the event to daytime Monday but the track and intensity remain about the same.

The general picture is the same. The mesoscale features and SJ possibilities will still have to wait until Sun am modeling and obs.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2013 15:53:40

Southern England takes an extended pasting on the latest GFS 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/pression/45h.htm


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/vent-925hpa/36h.htm


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/vent-925hpa/45h.htm


peaking with possible 70 knot+ gusts across the SE corner - during Monday morning

Reigate, home of the North Downs
idj20
26 October 2013 16:09:39

Now that it's all slipping into NAE model range, is it me or it now shows the low pressure system slipping eastwards away from the UK much sooner than GFS? As well as it looking more toned town?

I've been quite sure about it all, now I'm starting to wonder who to follow?

GFS shows the low just exiting East Anglia at 12 pm . . . http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Although the wind part remained largely unchanged from the last run.

But NAE has it clearing well away from the UK at that same time frame, arriving at Denmark taking the worst of the winds with it . . . http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0 Even the model has down toned down the winds itself.

Also, I've been told that the NAE will be discontinued at the end of the year? Is that true?

Folkestone Harbour. 
Polar Low
26 October 2013 16:10:32

does not look so bad t night on ukmo imo


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021


think met office willl have eye on ecm 2 night

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2013 16:13:49


does not look so bad t night on ukmo imo


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021


think met office willl have eye on ecm 2 night


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Have to say I don't agree - that shows a 970mb low slap bang across the UK with an extremely tight pressure gradient - that's a chart that the MO will take very seriously.

Reigate, home of the North Downs
radiohead
26 October 2013 16:17:04


Now that it's all slipping into NAE model range, is it me or it now shows the low pressure system slipping eastwards away from the UK much sooner than GFS? As well as it looking more toned town?

I've been quite sure about it all, now I'm starting to wonder who to follow?

GFS shows the low just exiting East Anglia at 12 pm . . . http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Although the wind part remained largely unchanged from the last run.

But NAE has it clearing well away from the UK at that same time frame, arriving at Denmark taking the worst of the winds with it . . . http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0 Even the model has down toned down the winds itself.

Also, I've been told that the NAE will be discontinued at the end of the year? Is that true?


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


For what it's worth, Ian Ferguson posted on Netweather this morning that the 06Z NAE had been modified by the Met Office to bring it further northwest and deeper. At the time he said they favouring the ECM, it was the model that was matching up best with the observed satellite imagery.


GFS has been pretty consistent for the past few runs, around the same MSLP and track, slightly stronger winds for the south coast on the 12Z.


The 12Z ECM will be interesting.

Polar Low
26 October 2013 16:23:18

indeed the MO, and rightly so but it looks a bit more elongated to me and a tad further south, also very earlier on the main pivot was some 50 miles further south and slightly more east thus pushing it a little lower thus affecting less area of the uk imo. and only mo..


 perhaps fax chart later will tell us more




does not look so bad t night on ukmo imo


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021


think met office willl have eye on ecm 2 night


Originally Posted by: beng 


Have to say I don't agree - that shows a 970mb low slap bang across the UK with an extremely tight pressure gradient - that's a chart that the MO will take very seriously.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

some faraway beach
26 October 2013 16:31:20


indeed the MO, and rightly so but it looks a bit more elongated to me and a tad further south, also very earlier on the main pivot was some 50 miles further south and slightly more east thus pushing it a little lower thus affecting less area of the uk imo. and only mo..


 perhaps fax chart later will tell us more




does not look so bad t night on ukmo imo


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021


think met office willl have eye on ecm 2 night


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Have to say I don't agree - that shows a 970mb low slap bang across the UK with an extremely tight pressure gradient - that's a chart that the MO will take very seriously.


Originally Posted by: beng 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Looks a little more vigorous close-up


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=21&ech=42&archive=0

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
radiohead
26 October 2013 16:36:26

Worryingly, the 12Z HIRLAM deepens the low to 960mb and is showing Force 12 winds around southwest coats and in the Bristol Channel.

Rob K
26 October 2013 16:40:02


does not look so bad t nighton ukmo imo
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021 
think met office willl have eye on ecm 2 night

Originally Posted by: beng 


Have to say I don't agree - that shows a 970mb low slap bang across the UK with an extremely tight pressure gradient - that's a chart that the MO will take very seriously.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



Quite right - those are 5mb isobars so that is a heck of a squeeze.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Nordic Snowman
26 October 2013 16:41:06



indeed the MO, and rightly so but it looks a bit more elongated to me and a tad further south, also very earlier on the main pivot was some 50 miles further south and slightly more east thus pushing it a little lower thus affecting less area of the uk imo. and only mo..


 perhaps fax chart later will tell us more




does not look so bad t night on ukmo imo


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021


think met office willl have eye on ecm 2 night


Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Have to say I don't agree - that shows a 970mb low slap bang across the UK with an extremely tight pressure gradient - that's a chart that the MO will take very seriously.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Originally Posted by: beng 


Looks a little more vigorous close-up


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=21&ech=42&archive=0


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
scandyhigh
26 October 2013 16:55:30

 



It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.



 


Totally agree, Nordic. (At this stage)


Going by current charts, typical 'strong' Autumn gale, nothing more.


Nowhere NEAR October 87. Think apples and oranges.

ARTzeman
26 October 2013 16:56:59

Colourful way to go for 980....





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Rob K
26 October 2013 16:58:23



It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Depends. The 1987 archive charts don't look like more than a typical autumn gale either. Features like sting jets won't show up on the charts.

Plus as you say there has been a lack of storms in the south in recent years which means there is more damage to be done: lots of trees that are old and weak and haven't been brought down in recent years.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Sevendust
26 October 2013 17:04:42

It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Depends. The 1987 archive charts don't look like more than a typical autumn gale either. Features like sting jets won't show up on the charts. Plus as you say there has been a lack of storms in the south in recent years which means there is more damage to be done: lots of trees that are old and weak and haven't been brought down in recent years.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


The last damaging gale here was in January 2008.


Btw, flew back from Boston MA to Heathrow earlier today. Gained an hour due to the jet stream roaring from the west. The in flight map had a tailwind of 196mph at one point(37000 feet) and the plane was moving at 750mph as opposed to the usual 550 to 600

Nordic Snowman
26 October 2013 17:11:00

It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Depends. The 1987 archive charts don't look like more than a typical autumn gale either. Features like sting jets won't show up on the charts. Plus as you say there has been a lack of storms in the south in recent years which means there is more damage to be done: lots of trees that are old and weak and haven't been brought down in recent years.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Good points Rob.


The trouble with this system is that the real 'noteworthy' winds are confined to a narrow band. Just a very small shift further S could leave many wondering what all the fuss was about and this is made worse by the fact that no model is capable of picking the path out exactly. A nowcast event will begin late tomorrow night.

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
idj20
26 October 2013 17:13:15


It does look quite intense but.... unless I am now out of touch, it still looks a brief affair which can be described as a typical autumn gale i.e wet and windy with gales in exposed places. Wet/windy/gales were very common during the 80s and 90s and perhaps the hype is just trying to fill the void of the recent run of benign autumns.... IMHO.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Depends. The 1987 archive charts don't look like more than a typical autumn gale either. Features like sting jets won't show up on the charts. Plus as you say there has been a lack of storms in the south in recent years which means there is more damage to be done: lots of trees that are old and weak and haven't been brought down in recent years.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The last damaging gale here was in January 2008.


Btw, flew back from Boston MA to Heathrow earlier today. Gained an hour due to the jet stream roaring from the west. The in flight map had a tailwind of 196mph at one point(37000 feet) and the plane was moving at 750mph as opposed to the usual 550 to 600


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 



Hi Dave and welcome back! Every cloud and all that . . .

I'm going to stop all this model watching and analysing for a bit as it's given me a headache.   

Folkestone Harbour. 
Larry Seinfeld
26 October 2013 17:14:04

Its not an odd storm. I remember growing up in Yorkshire having 90mph winds. That was a long time ago but it does happen. Late 80's early 90's some pretty bad storms. Rotating Scud everybody thought they were gonna die, but we didn't die, we're all still here.

Torquay.
Live Weather Station Brixham (St Mary's) 
Live Torbay Sea Temperature 
Flickr Torbay 
Flickr Pictures of Torquay's Palm Trees 
Gooner
26 October 2013 17:17:35


Its not an odd storm. I remember growing up in Yorkshire having 90mph winds. That was a long time ago but it does happen. Late 80's early 90's some pretty bad storms. Rotating Scud everybody thought they were gonna die, but we didn't die, we're all still here.


Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld 


Clearly joking???

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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