theweatheroutlook

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idj20
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:13:07 PM

[quote=Gandalf The White;543645]NAE 18z still shows a deepening system http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=36&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=[/quote]

And at an earlier time too. It is then shown clearing off well into the North Sea/near Continent by 12 pm taking the winds with it.

Looks like the models are now having a wobble.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Polar Low
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:15:53 PM

few miles south with that elongation I said earlier on ukmo it would like the opp on gfs18z  I have the pencil marks on my wall.


main pivot seems to be holding its ground


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=42&carte=1021


18gfs is an option of many and better than what weve had.


 


 

nickl
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:16:54 PM
The depression forms later and deepens less. As a result, it tracks fruther se by around 50 miles. are we going to take the gfs 18z over the other runs? No, i didnt think so. Still plenty to worry about.
abbiati50
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:16:55 PM

I remember the 1989 storm very very well !


a very distint sign of it  the evening before that night - low clouds travelling at incredible high speed !

Gandalf The White
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:21:02 PM

The depression forms later and deepens less. As a result, it tracks fruther se by around 50 miles. are we going to take the gfs 18z over the other runs? No, i didnt think so. Still plenty to worry about.

Originally Posted by: nickl 



Nick, I'd agree were it not for support from the NAE 18z. I think we need to see the 00z runs in the morning to get a better idea. The 18z runs might be the first to reflect how the LP has actually formed and developed as opposed to what the models were predicting?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:22:11 PM

I did not say that I said it was a option and does have a little support gm opp was the first in this time scale to come up and run it on the table.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0&carte=0


 


The depression forms later and deepens less. As a result, it tracks fruther se by around 50 miles. are we going to take the gfs 18z over the other runs? No, i didnt think so. Still plenty to worry about.

Originally Posted by: nickl 

Gooner
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:23:52 PM

The depression forms later and deepens less. As a result, it tracks fruther se by around 50 miles. are we going to take the gfs 18z over the other runs? No, i didnt think so. Still plenty to worry about.

Originally Posted by: nickl 


Yes be warned it is the 18z and known as the pub run

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


some faraway beach
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:25:34 PM

18z NAVGEM stays sober and takes no prisoners.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0&carte=2

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Polar Low
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:31:17 PM

Thats key as GTW SAYS


"might be the first to reflect how the LP has actually formed and developed as opposed to what the models were predicting"


something we could not do in 87 weather the models can do it now who knows but very intresting.


 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:32:17 PM

From the people who have to put their money where their mouth is:


http://www.brittany-ferries.co.uk/routes/sailing-updates


http://www.condorferries.co.uk/destinations/sailing-updates.aspx


High-speed ferries - 'the Vomit Comet' cancelled, no surprise there.


Large car/lorry transporter ferries expect to operate on the more easterly routes with some time added to allow for delays; but Cherbourg and Roscoff sailings cancelled. Still, if I were booked on Portsmouth-St Malo for Monday, I'd be ringing up to re-schedule

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
chichesterweatherfan
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:40:05 PM
dew, I'm in Belfast at the moment...due to be flying back to Gatwick on Monday with Flybe in a small plane... Eeekkk!!
RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:42:46 PM

The issue I have...is that despite modern technology we are still no clearer on the track. In the US they seem to be able to firm up on hurricanes quite well...but here it always seems to go wrong...be it snow or even rain.


 


So essentially...going back to 87...we are in a no stronger position apart from the fact the media can hype. And yes I'd love to see a good storm...I don't want to see people hurt...but as an enthusiast this is a good as we get to a hurricane style system.

Winter 23/24 in Nantwich
Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)



Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21
Days Snow Lying: 8
Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)
Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6
Days Snow Lying: 6
Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27
Days Snow Lying: 24
Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)
Nordic Snowman
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:43:31 PM

Most people who *could* be affected are hoping for a severe storm because like many here, we like extreme weather. If it were a snow event, the 'wobble' would invariably start now. T*ts up. Pete Tong. Downgrade etc, etc. The 18z GFS nd NAE *could* be the first signs of that .


I have doubts on this because from a purely unscientific approach, the more hype an event gets, the more diluted it is whilst, conversely, events seem more severe when we are caught unawares.


Disclaimer: Excitement purely weather-based and not for risk to life, property, business blah, blah, blah.

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
NickR
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:46:36 PM
Ian Ferguson's tweet:
Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 27m
W COUNTRY #ukstorm UPDATE 23:15BST: Latest analysis from @metoffice offers similar story (& a 25% probability of less significant winds).

And his explanation on NW:
"The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity."
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Polar Low
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:58:53 PM

And thats with just 24 hours to go Nicky thats what makes me a model obesssion with me but I do feel for the met of which imo have done a good job, we just dont really know at the mo.


 


Ian Ferguson's tweet: Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 27m W COUNTRY #ukstorm UPDATE 23:15BST: Latest analysis from @metoffice offers similar story (& a 25% probability of less significant winds). And his explanation on NW: "The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity."

Originally Posted by: NickR 

The Beast from the East
Saturday, October 26, 2013 11:06:58 PM

Looks like we are taking a step back from the brink tonight. Hopefully further downgrades in the morning runs. It wont be non event but I think a lot of people may be wondering what all the hype was about come Monday.


Of course, it could still go the other way, but it does appear the channel will get the brunt of it as it stands tonight


 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
Saturday, October 26, 2013 11:09:44 PM

dew, I'm in Belfast at the moment...due to be flying back to Gatwick on Monday with Flybe in a small plane... Eeekkk!!

Originally Posted by: chichesterweatherfan 



Should take about 15 minutes 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
Saturday, October 26, 2013 11:18:21 PM

dew, I'm in Belfast at the moment...due to be flying back to Gatwick on Monday with Flybe in a small plane... Eeekkk!!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Should take about 15 minutes :-)

Originally Posted by: chichesterweatherfan 


Yes, but the landing might take longer than the flight...

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
Saturday, October 26, 2013 11:20:14 PM


Most people who *could* be affected are hoping for a severe storm because like many here, we like extreme weather. If it were a snow event, the 'wobble' would invariably start now. T*ts up. Pete Tong. Downgrade etc, etc. The 18z GFS nd NAE *could* be the first signs of that .


I have doubts on this because from a purely unscientific approach, the more hype an event gets, the more diluted it is whilst, conversely, events seem more severe when we are caught unawares.


Disclaimer: Excitement purely weather-based and not for risk to life, property, business blah, blah, blah.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


You forgot the "Past performance is no guide to future performance.  If in doubt consult your professional advisor"....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


SEMerc
Saturday, October 26, 2013 11:30:11 PM



Most people who *could* be affected are hoping for a severe storm because like many here, we like extreme weather. If it were a snow event, the 'wobble' would invariably start now. T*ts up. Pete Tong. Downgrade etc, etc. The 18z GFS nd NAE *could* be the first signs of that .


I have doubts on this because from a purely unscientific approach, the more hype an event gets, the more diluted it is whilst, conversely, events seem more severe when we are caught unawares.


Disclaimer: Excitement purely weather-based and not for risk to life, property, business blah, blah, blah.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You forgot the "Past performance is no guide to future performance.  If in doubt consult your professional advisor"....


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Very true, appoint a financial advisor and let him prove it.

Jonesy
Sunday, October 27, 2013 12:33:02 AM
BBC News/Weather not backing down and rightly so.

I reckon tonights gusts are stronger than forecast, Its really started to.blow up !!
Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Matty H
Sunday, October 27, 2013 12:39:36 AM

The 18Z FFS run is ridiculously out of whack.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



Hopefully a trend 👍 👍
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Matty H
Sunday, October 27, 2013 12:42:43 AM

Looks like we are taking a step back from the brink tonight. Hopefully further downgrades in the morning runs. It wont be non event but I think a lot of people may be wondering what all the hype was about come Monday.
Of course, it could still go the other way, but it does appear the channel will get the brunt of it as it stands tonight

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I'm almost to the point of declaring it nothing of major note for this area. It's going to take until tomorrow afternoons runs to be fairly sure, but I'm increasingly confident for here 👍
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
idj20
Sunday, October 27, 2013 3:54:26 AM

Looks like we are taking a step back from the brink tonight. Hopefully further downgrades in the morning runs. It wont be non event but I think a lot of people may be wondering what all the hype was about come Monday.
Of course, it could still go the other way, but it does appear the channel will get the brunt of it as it stands tonight

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I'm almost to the point of declaring it nothing of major note for this area. It's going to take until tomorrow afternoons runs to be fairly sure, but I'm increasingly confident for here 👍

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Indeed as the latest updates continues the downgrading trend further still, now starting to look more like a typical Autumnal blustery windy day rather than a repeat of Oct '87. The GFS's Red Bull effect must have worn off.

But, hey, could still all change or catch us out especially as the jet stream over the South East of the UK is still packing a punch and winds could still gust up to 50 mph along the Channel coast in the early hours. Combine that with heavy rain and it will be enough to give some of us a headache anyway.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
Sunday, October 27, 2013 5:46:27 AM


But, hey, could still all change or catch us out especially as the jet stream over the South East of the UK is still packing a punch and winds could still gust up to 50 mph along the Channel coast in the early hours. Combine that with heavy rain and it will be enough to give some of us a headache anyway.

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Eh? Downgrade? For you?


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3573/27-289_tjg8.GIF - 60kt gusts (GFS)


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3816/nmm-11-27-0_sun5.png - NMM - 60kt gusts


60kts=69mph.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/folkestone-kent#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400


MetO has 75mph gusts for Folkestone.


If you're expecting gusts only of 50mph, you're in for a disappointment IMO!


Further west it does indeed look like a downgrade in terms of winds, which is no bad thing. But for us in the far SE it still looks pretty bad.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
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