Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday October 27th 2013.
All models seem to have downgraded the storm system to some degree this morning. A depression of around 985mbs will run across Wales deepening to 970mbs as it exits the East coast tomorrow. Winds will become gale or severe gale force across Southern Britain late tonight with the strongest winds looking likely across Eastern areas and the English Channel tomorrow morning. Storms will die down later in the day with decreasing NW winds with showers for most. By the middle of the week Southern areas will become dry for a time as a ridge crosses East before all parts of the UK become unsettled again with rain or showers and average temperatures by the end of the week.
GFS continues it's changeable theme throughout it's second half of the run with spells of wind and rain as deep low pressures cross over or to the North of the UK with spells of rain and showers for all. There is some drier and brighter spells too though with some clear skies at night possibly leading to the formation of mist and fog patches and a touch of frost. Other than that it looks like staying relatively mild for the time of year but rather cold at times in the North following the passage of cold fronts.
UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances near Southern Britain meaning an overall unsettled pattern to end the week with sunshine and blustery showers in the North with the chance of more prolonged rainfall in the South at times.
GEM too shows a lot of unsettled and windy weather through the coming 10 days or so with spells of windy and wet weather with some short drier and brighter weather in between. Temperatures would alternate between just above and below average but no real frost problems look likely.
NAVGEM also shows a better period in the South later in the week as a ridge passes over the UK. Later in the run Low pressure propels itself in from the West with strong winds again for all along with heavy rain and showers. Temperatures would remain close to average.
ECM today looks very disturbed in it's later part of the run with Low pressure over or to the North of the UK totally dominant with showers and longer spells of rain for all in average temperatures overall but with some rather colder interludes at times.
The GFS Ensembles show a change to quieter weather in the South midweek in an otherwise windy and unsettled period over the next two weeks. Rain and strong winds feature regularly between the members and it will feel chilly in the polar maritime air masses behind each depression. With the seasonal average falling steadily through early November we have to cater for expecting that even average temperatures can provide opportunity for night time frosts and lower than we have been used to daytime temperatures than of late.
The Jet Stream continues to power across the Atlantic and over the British isles for the long haul though it does weaken over Southern Britain temporarily midweek as it moves North for a while.
In Summary unsettled is the term to use when describing the output this morning. All areas can continue to expect showers or spells of rain at times but some drier and brighter interludes in the South at times too, particularly midweek. Temperatures will create no real problems over the period with only limited frost and fog patches but winds could be quite lively at times though there is no real repeat of tomorrow's expected storm being shown today.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset