Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday October 27th 2013.

All models seem to have downgraded the storm system to some degree this morning. A depression of around 985mbs will run across Wales deepening to 970mbs as it exits the East coast tomorrow. Winds will become gale or severe gale force across Southern Britain late tonight with the strongest winds looking likely across Eastern areas and the English Channel tomorrow morning. Storms will die down later in the day with decreasing NW winds with showers for most. By the middle of the week Southern areas will become dry for a time as a ridge crosses East before all parts of the UK become unsettled again with rain or showers and average temperatures by the end of the week.

GFS continues it's changeable theme throughout it's second half of the run with spells of wind and rain as deep low pressures cross over or to the North of the UK with spells of rain and showers for all. There is some drier and brighter spells too though with some clear skies at night possibly leading to the formation of mist and fog patches and a touch of frost. Other than that it looks like staying relatively mild for the time of year but rather cold at times in the North following the passage of cold fronts.

UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances near Southern Britain meaning an overall unsettled pattern to end the week with sunshine and blustery showers in the North with the chance of more prolonged rainfall in the South at times.

GEM too shows a lot of unsettled and windy weather through the coming 10 days or so with spells of windy and wet weather with some short drier and brighter weather in between. Temperatures would alternate between just above and below average but no real frost problems look likely.

NAVGEM also shows a better period in the South later in the week as a ridge passes over the UK. Later in the run Low pressure propels itself in from the West with strong winds again for all along with heavy rain and showers. Temperatures would remain close to average.

ECM today looks very disturbed in it's later part of the run with Low pressure over or to the North of the UK totally dominant with showers and longer spells of rain for all in average temperatures overall but with some rather colder interludes at times.

The GFS Ensembles show a change to quieter weather in the South midweek in an otherwise windy and unsettled period over the next two weeks. Rain and strong winds feature regularly between the members and it will feel chilly in the polar maritime air masses behind each depression. With the seasonal average falling steadily through early November we have to cater for expecting that even average temperatures can provide opportunity for night time frosts and lower than we have been used to daytime temperatures than of late.

The Jet Stream continues to power across the Atlantic and over the British isles for the long haul though it does weaken over Southern Britain temporarily midweek as it moves North for a while.

In Summary unsettled is the term to use when describing the output this morning. All areas can continue to expect showers or spells of rain at times but some drier and brighter interludes in the South at times too, particularly midweek. Temperatures will create no real problems over the period with only limited frost and fog patches but winds could be quite lively at times though there is no real repeat of tomorrow's expected storm being shown today.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin..

Farmers weather next update has a blip...November 29th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

Matty would love that!

Super FI I know so look away Gooner.

Not that concerned Duane, Winter is still a few weeks away .

Luckily, it's out at +336-384 so won't happen like that I'm sure...but very much NOT what you want to see in the winter months.

Funnily enough though, it is something like this that showed up on some of the seasonal models in Gav's brilliant round-up today, so cannot be discounted, even in FI.

Just as well it is only showing up in the Autumn then

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png  Matty would love that! Super FI I know so look away Gooner.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Not that concerned Duane, Winter is still a few weeks away .

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Very true Marcus, but we all know that those sort of HP cells (I hesitate to call it you know what), are very stubborn beasts to shift and can set up for many weeks or even months on end. Luckily, it's out at +336-384 so won't happen like that I'm sure...but very much NOT what you want to see in the winter months. Funnily enough though, it is something like this that showed up on some of the seasonal models in Gav's brilliant round-up today, so cannot be discounted, even in FI.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Just as well it is only showing up in the Autumn then

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Given it's deepest FI it probably won't be there in 6 hours never mind 6 weeks. ;-)

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Correct! Because last night's 12z showed raging northerlies!!....

GFS still showing another significant low pressure next weekend I see.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

some strong winds for sure in there

The projected path is now further north, but certainly very consistently showing up and looks like we are in for a bit of a storm next weekend too if it verifies.

That storm GFS shows for next weekend is extraordinary. Seems there's a lot of potential out there in terms of energetic storm systems.

ECM hinted at that this morning but the 12z run just throws energy all over the place, so not much to worry about just yet - let's get through the current incoming storm first!

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday October 27th 2013.

The General Situation. All models show an intense Atlantic Autumn storm whistling in from the SW as I type with heavy rain already moving steadily North across Southern Britain. Later in the night strong winds will increase to storm force in places with gusts between 60-80mph for many and not just near the coast. these last through the morning transferring out into the North sea along with the storm. Thereafter a showery West then NW wind is shown with some heavy showers in places especially on Monday afternoon and it will feel rather colder than of late. By the middle of the week a ridge of High pressure moves East across the UK bringing a period of dry and fine weather for a time with a chilly night on Tuesday night with a few mist patches. Through the midweek period cloud will increase from the West with another band of rain moving East and SE across the UK reaching the SE where it's clearance becomes delayed as a wave develops on the front. In the North Thursday will probably become showers and blustery in a Westerly breeze. By the end of the week things remain unsettled with Low pressure to the North and a blustery west wind bringing some rain at times to all areas.

GFS then shows a very changeable second half of the run with rain at times and strong winds with the heaviest rain and the windiest conditions over Northern Britain. High pressure does settle close to the South at times and pushes drier and brighter weather for all North into much of the UK right at the end of the run.

UKMO tonight shows Low pressure winding itself up to the West of Ireland on Saturday with rain and strong winds spilling NE across the UK on Saturday followed by clearer or brighter conditions with squally showers in temperatures close to average.

GEM looks distinctly unsettled and at times quite stormy as Low pressure move East across the UK repeatedly along with troughs which each deliver their own spell of rain and Westerly gales alternating with squally showers, wintry on Northern hills at times.

NAVGEM too shows very unsettled weather next weekend with rain and showers for all in association with Low pressure to the West of Scotland. Winds will often be strong from the West with just brief drier and more showery interludes in average temperatures.

ECM shows cool and unsettled weather with showers or longer spells of rain and severe gales at times. Some of the rain will be heavy and it will become chilly enough at times for some wintry showers over Northern hills.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show very changeable weather with wind and rain never far away with just brief drier interludes. On the whole nationwide temperatures will be close to average but with some warmer than colder than average days mixed in too.

The Jet Stream shows the strong and powerful flow continuing to pump East across the Atlantic Ocean and across the British Isles for some considerable time to come with little visual evidence of any significant changes.

In Summary the weather looks very disturbed and typically Autumnal tonight. All areas will be prone to periods of rain alternating with brighter and more showery conditions. At times it will be very windy with gales and with temperatures rather lower than of late though not particularly low it will certainly feel colder than of late. Frost and fog problems are unlikely however as winds will be a big factor in preventing this.

Transcript taken from:- http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

I think this one tonight and tomorrow seems overrated.

I reckon it's next weekend we need to be more concerned about I reckon.

That looks horrendous

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png

Parts of the North to get blown away next week

That's changed a bit that one - seems as hard to forecast as this current one.

That's a lot of reckoning!

The 144h UKMO looks a bit concerning but  too  far in the synoptic future to worry about.(sorry can't post links at present)

Good morning all. Here is the report from the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 28th 2013.

With the major storm system blowing itself away from SE as I type all models show that the weather reverts to a more standard form of Westerly winds, sunshine and showers. Some of the showers will be heavy and squally and perhaps with thunder. All models then show a brief quieter spell towards midweek as a weak ridge crosses East. However, this is looking increasingly short-lived even for the South as further deep Low pressure moves in from the West and bring spells of strong to gale force winds and heavy rain and squally showers at times in time for the weekend. It will also feel much chillier than of late.

GFS then moves through it's second part with continued unsettled and often windy weather with spells of rain and squally showers mixed with very brief drier interludes. 

UKMO today closes it's run with a deep Low over the Irish Sea with strong cyclonic winds around Britain with spells of heavy rain and showers and brief sunny intervals. It will feel rather colder than of late.

GEM today also shows a very deep Low over the UK next weekend followed by a rather cold and unstable NW then West flow, still strong. Rain will be most prevalent over the weekend and the start of the new week before more Southern areas see rather less late in the run. It will feel very chilly in the wind.

NAVGEM shows an unsettled period too with rain and strong winds at times as Low pressure top and tails the UK at the end of it's run.

ECM shows unsettled weather too with strong winds at times as low pressure spirals across the UK at the weekend. Thereafter and into the new week further wet and windy weather looks distinctly possible as winds remain strong to gale westerly at times with rain at times.

The GFS Ensembles show a very mediocre pattern as far as temperatures are concerned with temperatures alternating somewhat above and below the average. Rainfall and wind strengths remain the biggest factors over the UK with frequent bouts of rain and strong winds shown for all.

The Jet Stream remains the major driving force of the UK weather over the period with s very strong flow over the Atlantic and crossing East in the vicinity of the British Isles maintained for a considerable time to come.

In Summary the storm of the last 24 hours may be moving away this morning but the prospect of further very windy weather with strong gusts remains a risk over the next few weeks. With a very powerful Jet stream looking determined to continue roaring across the Atlantic towards Britain further deep low pressure later  this week could provide the ingredients for some more disruption in places. In addition rainfall is looking copious and flooding will inevitably become an ingredient towards media coverage as the period of this run evolves.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm