[quote=Rob K;543968]If GFS is right then you only need to worry if your name is Johannes and you eat a lot of Edam... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs181.gif[/quote]

If GFS is correct then the Meto are very wrong. They are still going for 80-90mph gusts.

Well the powers that be are prepared even in my part of the world 

http://www.itv.com/news/border/story/2013-10-22/region-on-flood-alert/#council-says-cumbria-is-prepared-for-storm_278812

It must be expected to track further northwards

The 12z HIRLAM shows it moving on a much more acute NE trajectory with the tighest isobars on its SW flank. Looks like Bristol is gonna get a pasting. Just as well Matty did a spot of panic buying in Yate Tesco last night

Yes the HIRLAM model really shows a vicious storm very different to the GFS 12z.

Where can I see the HIRLAM charts?

Just had a look at the high res WRF and it is not going for anything too bad:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013102712/nmm-2-20-0.png?27-14

Meanwhile NAE brings a real pasting to Denmark: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis12/ukuk/pslv/13102812_2712.gif

You can find it on the netweather forum page 28

Still no sign of any substantial deepening of the system as yet.

1700 report from Buoy K1 gives a pressure of 990.1mb. It has been falling at a rate of about 8mb in 3 hours recently but it must now be very close to the centre of the low as confirmed by this chart.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102717&size=large&lang=en&area=eur

12z NAE still wants to bring the low down to 974mb by 03z and 970mb by 06z which is a major storm.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis12/ukuk/ismh/13102803_2_2712.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis12/ukuk/ismh/13102806_2_2712.gif

But it has the low at 986mb by 18z and I don't think it will be that deep

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis12/ukuk/ismh/13102718_2_2712.gif

The next 6 hours are critical. If we are going to see winds of 80-90mph on the south coast the system will need to undergo rapid deepening between now and midnight.

17:58 Radio 4 forecast suggests that the worse of the winds from the Bristol cannel to the Wash.

Hurricane force 12 through the Channel and into the couthern North Sea 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

Red Cross have now asked who's available for Emergency Response cover for the next 24 hours. This is over and above what I normally do for the Fire and Emergency Support Service. It's the first time we've been alerted to this level!

eatl_sfcbw.gif

That might be the case as the updated NOAA shows with rapid intensifying off cornwall.

Where I work (local NHS hospital) have cancelled some OP appointments for Monday and staff have been alerted that they may be needed for Emergency Admissions.

On an side note, I have reported some strobes this evening that are about 700m out from the shore. I haven't seen them before, hopefully they are just pot bouys that have broke free, although I have never known them to have strobes before.

CG wasn't going to send a crew out at this time, but was thankful for the call.

If you're looking for the HIRLAM charts I posted on NW, click on HIRLAM on this page and change the drop down menu to Benelux to get a closer look at the UK. Wind/pressure options can be changed at the bottom of that page.

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0 

Locally they are used to mark trot lines, usually set to catch conger. This rough weather is good for the fish as everything gets stirred up.

Pressure just starting to fall, currently 1001.2 Mb.

Good evening folks - ready for the ride?

As I said earlier the key period is now until midnight and will determine the difference between a wet and windy night and an exceptional one. One of the factors that will contribute is the intensification rate and recent buoy data indicates rapid intensification now 300 miles WSW of Lands End (circa 5mb in 3hrs). If this continues, we could have a system that moves inland (around the Bristol Channel) still undergoing this 'bombing' stage which is bad news.
The time for models is probably over now. It's all obs and current charts from here.

Agreed.  Its a case of bouy readings, tracking obseravtions from those bouys and weather stations and reading first hand reports.  

Locally I am expecting winds between 80-90mph.  Really hoping not too much damage is caused, lets see how it goes.

Border TV and ITV are best avoided for any reliable weather reports if you ask me

For bit of Cumbria  ( NE ) looks almost dry spell ahead with little chance any wind -  we will have to wait for another chance

Good luck to those further South -  I will be glued to your reports overnight, slightly envious.

The proverbial "calm before the storm" Matty?