Track ene almost linear so far  looks ene <989

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102718&size=large&lang=en&area=eur

deepth and movement about right ukmo full marks so very worrrying so

Sorry mate...you can read me like a book!

(And any other cliches I can think of!)  LOL 

As in "It's too quiet. I don't like it..."

ECM 12z now has the system further south and weaker than the 00z. So that's GFS and ECM vs Met Office? http://www.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/131027_1200_15.png

Looking at the top of that chart, I wasn't aware that Quebec is a country. Must have missed that one.

Thats a sugar ray battering for most that really is if ukmo is right including the n/e as she clears

http://www.weathercharts.net/northwood_analysis_prognosis.htm

The trouble is, the data for the 12z runs will be from before initialisation - prior to the shortwave low beginning the rapid intensification currently being observed according to NOAA.

All we can do is watch and see if GFS and ECM (to a lesser extent) have been right to back off somewhat with the intensity. It's the mesoscale stuff that can be problematic as things escalate very quickly.

It sure has been a windy old weekend - believe me I know, after spending a lot of it outside taking weather measurements! I also released a radiosonde... with considerable difficulty as the wind buffeted the balloon around like a heavyweight boxer.

18z fax chart. Low centre was 988mb so not far off what the 12z NAE was predicting which was around 986mb

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVA89.TIF

For anybody interested, here's my final Storm update video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

really not diaagreeing with the intensity of the wind forecast. But the predicted rainfall on the country file forecast looked less intense and the actual radar at the mo is not looking too flood worthy or am i wrong ?

chris

Thanks for that gtw thats a great link

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Interesting data from the K1 Buoy. The low has now passed to the east of this Buoy but the pressure has not risen much as yet which you might expect it would start to do by now (it was 990.1mb at both 17z and 18z and only up to 990.3mb at 19z).

This could be for a number of reasons. It could be the low has slowed down its forward movement or it could be deepening rapidly or a combination of both. Or there could just be a fairly large area of slack pressure near the centre but that would tend to suggest there is no rapid deepening taking place. We will just have to wait and see how things develop over the next couple of hours.

Presure continues to fall at Sevenstones Lightship ahead of the low but not by as much in the past hour. 995.1mb at 19z which is a fall of 4.4mb in 3 hours.

u can run each model here on high wind areas  it never is exact but it gives an idea

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=slpw&HH=9&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

And the pressure dropped a little at K2 to the north.

No its Jiries trying to stop it

No the centre of the low is about 300 miles ESE of your red dot