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Marigold
  • Marigold
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:14:53 PM

Keep on topic, no regionalistic remarks please.


Edit: That might not be a real word but you know what I mean


Southern Yorkshire Dales











Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:19:46 PM

Looks to me like an event that we would expect every 5 years or so just massively hyped but it does have a chance of becoming a more significant storm. Meto going for widespread 80mph + gusts.


http://t.co/2G72hHWi7m


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Sevendust
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:21:15 PM

From Radiohead's post. Estofex gust predictions based on GFS


http://www.estofex.org/modelmaps/maps/201310/2013102612/45_nconvgust.png

molitor
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:25:42 PM

Looks like Guernsey is going to cop it?


Si Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur
radiohead
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:29:22 PM


From Radiohead's post. Estofex gust predictions based on GFS


http://www.estofex.org/modelmaps/maps/201310/2013102612/45_nconvgust.png


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Just to add that, here is the potential convective gust chart. This would be in the event of winds higher up getting mixed down to the surface.


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur45.png 

stophe
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:38:49 PM
Just posting the 48 hr fax again.I think that gets down to 964.Just seen Mr fish on news 24 and they showed a fax chart of the October 1987 storm and that got down to 960.Not ramping just putting it out there.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif?26-12 
Sevendust
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:41:09 PM

As an aside I've just been reminded of this surfers site which covers the swell possibilities. As expected they have a warning as well


http://magicseaweed.com/news/European-Storm-Call/5726/

nsrobins
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:47:53 PM

Let's see what the morning brings.
To be honest I'm getting a bit of data overload syndrome, and I have to be up early to take the youngest and her friends to Thorpe Park (closing late but should time it OK for the onset).

Taking all available data and projections, I would say there is a 90% chance of a RED upgrade in the morning and all manner of cancellations and re-scheduling going on.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:50:42 PM



From Radiohead's post. Estofex gust predictions based on GFS


http://www.estofex.org/modelmaps/maps/201310/2013102612/45_nconvgust.png


Originally Posted by: radiohead 


Just to add that, here is the potential convective gust chart. This would be in the event of winds higher up getting mixed down to the surface.


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur45.png 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 



NOW it's starting to look more and more like 16th October '87 all over again for my location. I don't think I'll sleep very well on the night before.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Jason H
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:51:36 PM


 


That's a bullseye for London. Different angle of attack and not as large as 1987, but still a short, sharp vicious storm over the major populised area of England.


I feel great! so maybe I might just
Search for a 9 to 5, if I strive
Then maybe I'll stay alive

Bexleyheath, Kent.
KevBrads1
Saturday, October 26, 2013 8:57:37 PM

Just posting the 48 hr fax again.I think that gets down to 964.Just seen Mr fish on news 24 and they showed a fax chart of the October 1987 storm and that got down to 960.Not ramping just putting it out there.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif?26-12 

Originally Posted by: stophe 



Compare that to the 30th October 2000 storm

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/autumn2000.html 
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:02:44 PM


Looks very similar although air pressure not as low. I'm expecting similar on Monday. Portland or Mumbles Head my tip for the max gust maybe 90mph.


 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
colin moffat
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:31:30 PM
could anyone tell me how many red warnings the met office have issued,
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:38:30 PM
Very worrying forecasts..... I must admit that I am checking in here frequently at the moment..... Keep up the good work... Excellent forum
scandyhigh
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:43:11 PM

Big downgrade on the 18z GFS. Yes, the GFS is always up and down and you can't always t rust one of it's 4 available outputs, but interesting none the less.

Ulric
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:45:51 PM


Big downgrade on the 18z GFS. Yes, the GFS is always up and down and you can't always t rust one of it's 4 available outputs, but interesting none the less.


Originally Posted by: scandyhigh 

Wow. That is quite different from the earlier chart isn't it?


"Never express yourself more clearly than you think." - Niels Bohr
Polar Low
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:49:22 PM
SEMerc
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:51:46 PM

The 18Z FFS run is ridiculously out of whack.

Gooner
Saturday, October 26, 2013 9:56:47 PM


Out of Jail!!!!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0


has support  from gm


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0&carte=0


 for now at least


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Nothing to worry about then


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:01:44 PM

quite a few of the earlier 12gfs members have hints of this it all seems very uncertain to me at the mo but it is still possable for it to pan out like that.


one of those members


 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=42&mode=0&carte=0


 

Snowvillain
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:06:28 PM
Looks like the channel gets it!!
Rob K
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:07:03 PM

Just posting the 48 hr fax again.I think that gets down to 964.Just seen Mr fish on news 24 and they showed a fax chart of the October 1987 storm and that got down to 960.Not ramping just putting it out there.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif?26-12 

Originally Posted by: stophe 



The central pressure isn't really too relevant. A few years ago I remember a 955 or so going across the Bristol area but it wasn't that windy because it was a large system, so the gradients weren't that tight. I'm not quite sure why people are saying this doesn't look very severe. Even if the central pressure is 970 or so there are very tight isobars on the southern flank.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
idj20
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:08:40 PM



Big downgrade on the 18z GFS. Yes, the GFS is always up and down and you can't always t rust one of it's 4 available outputs, but interesting none the less.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 

Wow. That is quite different from the earlier chart isn't it?


Originally Posted by: scandyhigh 



Breathes a huge sigh of relief as I have seeing some horror-looking charts this evening! But it is only one of many more runs before we get to the actual event and I'll relax once it has all passed by on Monday night.
BUT, if it does become very stormy as planned anyway, at least people won't be short for firewood for Bonfire Night.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gandalf The White
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:09:46 PM
Gandalf The White
Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:11:37 PM
NAE 18z still shows a deepening system but a little further south - so the zone of strongest winds is shifted south as well

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=uv10&HH=30&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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