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Sevendust
Monday, October 28, 2013 10:47:21 AM

Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed


Rob K
Monday, October 28, 2013 10:49:24 AM


It may not be that windy, but thanks to complete overkill by the press etc, there are virtually no trains running in the SE of England. We heard them announcing this at 5pm last night ! So trains or replacement bus services before 9am today.

IMO a complete over reaction by the rail companies. Millions commute into London every day including my husband, but nobody can go anywhere this morning. Complete lockdown for SE people who have to try and get to work.

Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB 


 


Au contraire, I think it was a good call by the rail companies.


With the number of trees down on railway lines, they would not have been able to run a normal service anyway, leading to passengers stranded on trains or at railway stations. It is more than possible that falling trees could have landed on moving trains in more Eastern parts, and I don't think I need to explain the possible consequences of that.


Yes, a pain in the arse for those who rely on the train to get to work, but better to plan ahead and manage the situation properly, than to have to manage a crisis.


Originally Posted by: DeeDee 


Yes I was critical of the decision last night but on reflection I was wrong. 40+ trees down on the lines across the region so trying to run a full service would have been impossible. Easier to have no trains, clear the line and then only operate when they are known to be clear.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Coxy410
Monday, October 28, 2013 10:54:51 AM


This isn't in any way a criticism of forecasters, who were factual & sensible (the Met Office ones at least), nor a dig at anyone on here, but the way the media have portrayed this has been laughable. Talk of the storm 'making landfall'; the army of reporters dotted about the south wearing Arctic expedition clothing and talking in overly dramatic and grave voices; FFS, we even gave the storm a name!!!


I personally got the impression that the various media outlets were just itching for the storm to be like a hurricane smashing into a Gulf state.


It's just pure sensationalism.


 

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


This is it in a nutshell, Sky News this morning was quite frankly laughable

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Do what i do then and dont have anything to do with them....Stick to bbc ..people choose to watch sky then they know what they are getting
Steve


Newborough, Cambridgeshire
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:01:37 AM


Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: Sevendust 



How is Bren these days?  I miss his, Matt Hugo's and TC's probability charts


 

Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
nsrobins
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:05:31 AM


It may not be that windy, but thanks to complete overkill by the press etc, there are virtually no trains running in the SE of England. We heard them announcing this at 5pm last night ! So trains or replacement bus services before 9am today.

IMO a complete over reaction by the rail companies. Millions commute into London every day including my husband, but nobody can go anywhere this morning. Complete lockdown for SE people who have to try and get to work.

Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB 


 


Au contraire, I think it was a good call by the rail companies.


With the number of trees down on railway lines, they would not have been able to run a normal service anyway, leading to passengers stranded on trains or at railway stations. It is more than possible that falling trees could have landed on moving trains in more Eastern parts, and I don't think I need to explain the possible consequences of that.


Yes, a pain in the arse for those who rely on the train to get to work, but better to plan ahead and manage the situation properly, than to have to manage a crisis.


Originally Posted by: DeeDee 


I agree. I would rather be pre-warned and wait at the station or delay my travel than be stuck on a train that has just ploughed into a tree (or worse). The pre-planning has enabled rolling stock to be positioned correctly ready for resumption which I assume is now happening, rather than the chaos that would have occured had the schedule gone ahead as normal (with at least 50 lines blocked by trees this morning).

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:08:15 AM


Can someone let iandj know it's safe to come out now


One of our fence panels has come loose, but could of been alot worse, nothing a few nails won't solve.


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 



 I have cautiously walked outdoors to get the papers and mother's meditation. The air smells so much, much fresher for it.

However, on a sad note it is a tragedy regarding those two deaths.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Sevendust
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:09:14 AM



Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: POD 



How is Bren these days?  I miss his, Matt Hugo's and TC's probability charts


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


He's doing fine. Still keep in touch via facebook

bowser
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:09:45 AM



Looks like my storm in a teacup warning was spot on, Past history tell.s us that the trajectory of the storm would be further south than what was being modelled.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

SC. I'd already warned once about such ridiculous oneupmanship. Apart from the fact that this has not been as "minor" as you seem to be making out. Please refrain from this sort of post.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

It's not meant to be anything other than an observational comment, the trajectory of the storm forecasted looked all wrong IMO thus the intensity also would be wrong.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

See ROb's post above. The problem is it wasn't much further S and wasn't a "storm in a teacup". In other words, your post was merely an attempt at oneupmanship. There's no place for that on there, thank you.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

The original path of the storm was expected to move more NE and deepen, this wasn't the case but yes it was an Autumn storm and yes it caused damage as storms do but this was never going to be an 87 type event.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


No one on here or outside of the Express ever claimed it would be an '87. Between "normal autum storm" and '87' there is a LOT of ground.


SC - any more, please PM me. Your posts about this being a normal storm do not bear up to scrutiny and are now bordering on being trolling. Any more posts in here will be deleted.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


I'm not going to comment on SC's possible motives and certainly don't want to rubbish the effects of this storm - which, like with all storms, are significant for those who are affected - but I would say that there should definitely be a place to discuss the approach by the media, before during and afterwards.


This isn't in any way a criticism of forecasters, who were factual & sensible (the Met Office ones at least), nor a dig at anyone on here, but the way the media have portrayed this has been laughable. Talk of the storm 'making landfall'; the army of reporters dotted about the south wearing Arctic expedition clothing and talking in overly dramatic and grave voices; FFS, we even gave the storm a name!!!


I personally got the impression that the various media outlets were just itching for the storm to be like a hurricane smashing into a Gulf state.


It's just pure sensationalism.


 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Agreed. I think some of the oneupmanship is a symtom of trying to bring a little perspective to the hype.

Russwirral
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:10:36 AM


Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 


Aye - Alex Deaken on BBC a moment ago - saying the same.


 


Personally i reckon - looking at the satalite imagery - where the cloud curls around - is about where most of the inland damage has occured. North west  to north London.  So perhaps this is where the stingjet occured?


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Ally Pally Snowman
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:13:29 AM

The BBC  have said and put it on a graphic that 200 trees have fallen down. There must be thousands that have actually fallen. It does make you wonder sometimes.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
NickR
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:13:50 AM




Looks like my storm in a teacup warning was spot on, Past history tell.s us that the trajectory of the storm would be further south than what was being modelled.

Originally Posted by: bowser 

SC. I'd already warned once about such ridiculous oneupmanship. Apart from the fact that this has not been as "minor" as you seem to be making out. Please refrain from this sort of post.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

It's not meant to be anything other than an observational comment, the trajectory of the storm forecasted looked all wrong IMO thus the intensity also would be wrong.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

See ROb's post above. The problem is it wasn't much further S and wasn't a "storm in a teacup". In other words, your post was merely an attempt at oneupmanship. There's no place for that on there, thank you.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

The original path of the storm was expected to move more NE and deepen, this wasn't the case but yes it was an Autumn storm and yes it caused damage as storms do but this was never going to be an 87 type event.

Originally Posted by: NickR 


No one on here or outside of the Express ever claimed it would be an '87. Between "normal autum storm" and '87' there is a LOT of ground.


SC - any more, please PM me. Your posts about this being a normal storm do not bear up to scrutiny and are now bordering on being trolling. Any more posts in here will be deleted.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


I'm not going to comment on SC's possible motives and certainly don't want to rubbish the effects of this storm - which, like with all storms, are significant for those who are affected - but I would say that there should definitely be a place to discuss the approach by the media, before during and afterwards.


This isn't in any way a criticism of forecasters, who were factual & sensible (the Met Office ones at least), nor a dig at anyone on here, but the way the media have portrayed this has been laughable. Talk of the storm 'making landfall'; the army of reporters dotted about the south wearing Arctic expedition clothing and talking in overly dramatic and grave voices; FFS, we even gave the storm a name!!!


I personally got the impression that the various media outlets were just itching for the storm to be like a hurricane smashing into a Gulf state.


It's just pure sensationalism.


 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Agreed. I think some of the oneupmanship is a symtom of trying to bring a little perspective to the hype.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Sadly, I don't think so. Such posts set themselves up against the Meto and sensible analysis on here, not against the likes of the Express and Sky.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
turbotubbs
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:14:04 AM




 I have cautiously walked outdoors to get the papers and mother's meditation. The air smells so much, much fresher for it.


Originally Posted by: idj20 

Ian - I know its just a typo but I love the idea of buying 'meditation'... It has the whiff of Monty python about it...

Jonesy
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:14:15 AM

SOD that.... just watched a plane landing on sky news, swaying about everywhere

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Phil G
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:16:06 AM



Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: Sevendust 



How is Bren these days?  I miss his, Matt Hugo's and TC's probability charts


Originally Posted by: POD 


He's doing fine. Still keep in touch via facebook

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Good to hear Dave. Tell Bren there are 3 5 star bores due next year.
I'm off this week and took my daughter to work this morning. Lots of small debris, but only saw 1 branch down. A transit van went past with its windscreen badly smashed, assume a tree caused it.
A report from a football forum says two house roofs badly damaged north of here in Colchester. Amazing the level of coverage time on the media and there can't be much else going on in the world at this time.
Sevendust
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:23:37 AM



Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Aye - Alex Deaken on BBC a moment ago - saying the same.


 


Personally i reckon - looking at the satalite imagery - where the cloud curls around - is about where most of the inland damage has occured. North west  to north London.  So perhaps this is where the stingjet occured?


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


It was quite strange even here. It went from windy to stormy for a short time then eased just as quickly. Many places report the same sequence of events from Hampshire eastwards. I was pleased to witness it although would rather it hadn't!

bowser
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:30:30 AM


Sadly, I don't think so. Such posts set themselves up against the Meto and sensible analysis on here, not against the likes of the Express and Sky.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


I can't speak for anyone else, but some of my posts on Friday had that intention.

Essan
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:33:37 AM

As an aside, it wasn't just the Express hyping up this storm.   This is what Reuters said:

Hurricane-force winds are forecast to disrupt road, rail and airport networks on Monday when one of the strongest storms in decades is expected to hit the southern half of Britain during rush-hour, forecasters warned on Sunday



http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/27/uk-britain-weather-storm-idUKBRE99Q07T20131027


I'm not aware of any reports of sustained 74mph winds (or that such winds were forecast)?   It wasn't even the strongest storm this year (although it was the strongest in part of southern and SE England for maybe a couple of years).  And most of Southern Britain was largely unaffected.


 


I think that under the circumstances the actual forecasts were pretty good - and the wider area covered by the MetO warnings was correct and proper given that not even the gods themselves knew the exact track the storm would take until last night

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
bowser
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:54:39 AM


SOD that.... just watched a plane landing on sky news, swaying about everywhere


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


That is scary and quite an unnerving experience!!! I remember coming home to Aberdeen from Stavanger in a small propeller plane the same night this happened: http://news.stv.tv/north/286331-families-evacuated-after-homes-damaged-by-storms/... It felt like I was in a paper plane when coming into land.


Even the trolley dollies were bricking it before we even left (their faces were white). The the local paper ran a story quoting 40mph as the windspeed, when the gusts were far higher..... http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/Article.aspx/2553046

Gandalf The White
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:56:48 AM


As an aside, it wasn't just the Express hyping up this storm.   This is what Reuters said:

Hurricane-force winds are forecast to disrupt road, rail and airport networks on Monday when one of the strongest storms in decades is expected to hit the southern half of Britain during rush-hour, forecasters warned on Sunday

Originally Posted by: Essan 



http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/27/uk-britain-weather-storm-idUKBRE99Q07T20131027


I'm not aware of any reports of sustained 74mph winds (or that such winds were forecast)?   It wasn't even the strongest storm this year (although it was the strongest in part of southern and SE England for maybe a couple of years).  And most of Southern Britain was largely unaffected.


 


I think that under the circumstances the actual forecasts were pretty good - and the wider area covered by the MetO warnings was correct and proper given that not even the gods themselves knew the exact track the storm would take until last night



But there's certainly been a lot of travel disrpution today.


The rail service on most lines into/out of London are severely affected, i.e. non-existent to very limited.  There are trees down all over the place.  Heathrow was closed to arriving aircraft for a while this morning.


On top of that there's been property damage and quite major power outages.


All in all, a fairly high impact event for the most heavily populated part of the country.


Aside from some over-hyping by the usual culprits I think this was very well handled by the Met Office and by the authorities.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


stormwatcher
Monday, October 28, 2013 11:57:34 AM

i watching the netherlands cams does anyone please could tell me when will the storm will arrive there thankyou

idj20
Monday, October 28, 2013 12:03:40 PM





 I have cautiously walked outdoors to get the papers and mother's meditation. The air smells so much, much fresher for it.


Originally Posted by: turbotubbs 

Ian - I know its just a typo but I love the idea of buying 'meditation'... It has the whiff of Monty python about it...


Originally Posted by: idj20 



 Actually, that might just work!

I think I'm a bit sleepy after having been up all night watching the stormy weather unfold. Anyway, it's now being bright and cheerful but there is still a strong wind kicking around. I can also see a procession of baby cumulonimbus marching briskly along the Channel. 

Folkestone Harbour. 
johnr
Monday, October 28, 2013 12:05:14 PM

I took at look at some of the grid companies' pages as none of our friends in nearby and not so nearby villages have power after the 8am gusts.


For the East and South East only (UK Power Networks)  180,000 homes without power, 150,000 of which are in the East of England. That's quite an impact.


John


[edit] Added my weatherstation max/min wind gust. All quite innocuous apart from around 8am!


Wind plot

Mickfield, Mid Suffolk
Girthmeister
Monday, October 28, 2013 12:09:58 PM




Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 


Aye - Alex Deaken on BBC a moment ago - saying the same.


 


Personally i reckon - looking at the satalite imagery - where the cloud curls around - is about where most of the inland damage has occured. North west  to north London.  So perhaps this is where the stingjet occured?


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


It was quite strange even here. It went from windy to stormy for a short time then eased just as quickly. Many places report the same sequence of events from Hampshire eastwards. I was pleased to witness it although would rather it hadn't!


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Yes, very short-lived and intense around 6. Looking at the radar at the time, it was just beginning to hook around, with our bit of Hampshire on the bottom part. In the absence of other data, the rainfall rates over Oxford-ish at the same time were very heavy, which was other end of the C-shaped squall/SJ line. There was also a characteristic menacing 'roar', which I've heard only once before during an autumn gale, and that was in '87.

Sevendust
Monday, October 28, 2013 12:21:41 PM





Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


 


Aye - Alex Deaken on BBC a moment ago - saying the same.


 


Personally i reckon - looking at the satalite imagery - where the cloud curls around - is about where most of the inland damage has occured. North west  to north London.  So perhaps this is where the stingjet occured?


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


It was quite strange even here. It went from windy to stormy for a short time then eased just as quickly. Many places report the same sequence of events from Hampshire eastwards. I was pleased to witness it although would rather it hadn't!


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yes, very short-lived and intense around 6. Looking at the radar at the time, it was just beginning to hook around, with our bit of Hampshire on the bottom part. In the absence of other data, the rainfall rates over Oxford-ish at the same time were very heavy, which was other end of the C-shaped squall/SJ line. There was also a characteristic menacing 'roar', which I've heard only once before during an autumn gale, and that was in '87.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Good info - Yes the roar was impressive

Russwirral
Monday, October 28, 2013 12:28:11 PM






Been talking to Bren


Thinks a Stingjet was likely to have occured this morning across the SE but that will doubtless be determined once all the data has been analysed



Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 


Aye - Alex Deaken on BBC a moment ago - saying the same.


 


Personally i reckon - looking at the satalite imagery - where the cloud curls around - is about where most of the inland damage has occured. North west  to north London.  So perhaps this is where the stingjet occured?


Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


It was quite strange even here. It went from windy to stormy for a short time then eased just as quickly. Many places report the same sequence of events from Hampshire eastwards. I was pleased to witness it although would rather it hadn't!


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Yes, very short-lived and intense around 6. Looking at the radar at the time, it was just beginning to hook around, with our bit of Hampshire on the bottom part. In the absence of other data, the rainfall rates over Oxford-ish at the same time were very heavy, which was other end of the C-shaped squall/SJ line. There was also a characteristic menacing 'roar', which I've heard only once before during an autumn gale, and that was in '87.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Good info - Yes the roar was impressive


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 


Was reading about the Dry upper atmosphere air the other day and its impact in storms like this.  I dont have the link to the VM image to see what the real impact was, but basically moisture content more or less = clouds. ... based on : http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html  look at the link and you can see a large wedge of Drier cloud free air being sucked into the system over south britain at around 5am.  Wraps around the LP and darts south to London.  I would reckon the Metoffice will be all over this info - and no doubt will confirm a small sting jet on tonights news.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
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