Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 28th 2013.
All models show the St Jude's storm now long gone away to the NE. A rather chilly and showery NW flow will affect the UK tonight and tomorrow with the majority of the showers towards the North and West. pressure will be rising steadily and a ridge crossing East through Wednesday will kill off the showers and give a drier interlude for most. However, a cold front moving in from theWest will bring increasing cloud, wind and rain in from the Atlantic reaching all parts by Wednesday night. Thursday will be a benign sort of day in the South with a lot of dry weather and just the odd shower. The North could see a greater chance of rain and by Friday the weather begins to slide downhill again a new deep Low pressure centre to the West of Ireland moving across the UK over the start of the weekend with spells of heavy rain and showers for all. All through this week the temperatures will never be far away from the seasonal average but it will feel rather chillier than of late.
GFS then takes us through Week 2 with a strong Westerly flow maintained for much of the period though with short quieter spells in the South. This would continue to mean spells of rain at times but with some drier and less windy interludes in the South. The temperatures will remain well up to average given winds remain from a Westerly source. Late in the run a major pressure build from the South over the Atlantic brings dry weather for all with mostly dry weather with some clear skies overnight and some frost and fog patches possible.
UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure clearing slowly away to the East with a strong and windy NW flow over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain continuing.
GEM tonight shows deep Low pressure almost continually settled to the North of Scotland with strong Westerly winds, spells of rain and average temperatures for all of the UK with some heavy rain in places at times.
NAVGEM looks like keeping unsettled weather going indefinately over the UK as the bandwagon of Low pressure areas clear to the East and approach from the West and NW beyond the term of the run.
ECM too shows a very unsettled and windy weekend to come with little sign of any significant improvements thereafter. It will feel quite cold fr a time as winds switch Northerly briefly but a weak transient ridge moving East kills the Northerly flow quickly and re-opens the gates to the West but in a much more medramatic fashion in quite mild conditions.
The GFS Ensembles show a very sine wave style pattern over the two weeks as successive air mass changes takes place over the UK behind frontal systems frequently steaming in from the West. The temperature extremes are never particularly marked but there will be some cold and mild feeling days in among the always rather breezy Westerly flow. The operational run described above is a marked outlier of the cold variety at the end of the run.
The Jet Stream shows the flow streaming across the Atlantic and the Uk for the reliable future before it shows signs of moving further North tonight late in the predictive period.
In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying unsettled and windy for the reliable future. there are some potentially stormy periods especially again towards this weekend. In contrast there is also some windows of drier weather, especially in the South and later in the run as signs of a Northward moving Jet Stream and Low pressure areas on a much more Northerly trajectory are shown. With High pressure then to the South and Low to the North this would once again mean temperatures above average as we move into November.
transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset