Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 30th 2013.
All models show a cold front crossing the UK this evening and clearing the SE after midnight. Outbreaks of rain will clear through too by the small hours with a spell of light winds and potential fog patches in Central areas greeting rush hour motorists tomorrow. The North and West will already be more cloudy again with showery outbreaks of rain in the morning as a broad Westerly flow takes hold across the UK. This showery rain theme spreads to all other areas by the end of the day with some heavier outbreaks of rain in places. On Friday a new Low pressure area will move East close to Southern Britain with some heavy rain possible there while other areas see more showery rainfall under largely cloudy skies. Over the weekend a complex situation takes hold with Low pressure troughs crossing the UK and their associated depressions to maintain wet and windy weather at times for all alternating with showers and sunny intervals. As the weekend progresses most models indicate rather colder weather as lower uppers become entrained in the cyclonic airflow to bring lower temperatures than we have seen so far this autumn with some hill snow possible in the North.
GFS then shows very changeable weather through the rest of the run with milder air returning later next week. This would be accompanied by fuurther spells of rain alternating with rather chillier NW winds, sun and showers. Right at the end of the run a complete pattern change evolves as High pressure moves across the UK from the Atlantic setting up a period of cold and foggy weather with frost at night where fog doesn't form.
UKMO tonight shows next Tuesday as cold and showery over the north while Southern areas become wet as a slider front slips ESE across the SW through the day. it would be cold here too with milder air waiting in the wings over the Atlantic for later in the week.
GEM shows very windy weather throughout next week with the chilly and wet weather early in the week giving way to milder but still quite rainy weather later on. With winds backing away towards the SW by next weekend as High pressure builds to the SE it would become quite mild in the SE. Right at the end of the run unsettled weather looks like feeding back into the West with some heavy rain moving slowly East across Western areas in a strengthening Southerly wind.
NAVGEM keeps things very windy next week unsettled and rather cool weather early on changing to mild weather by the end of the week with SW winds and temperatures above average with rain at times especially towards the North and West.
ECM shows a cool start to next week with rain and showers before, as with other models it too shows a backing wind towards the SW and milder air flooding back over all of the UK with rain at times, heaviest in the North. Late in the run is a cold lovers nightmare as a large High pressure centres just to the South of the UK over Northern France pumping very mild and probably bright weather across Southern Britain and drier and mild, less unsettled weather to the North as well for a time. Fog patches may form overnight under any clear skies should wind strengths fall low enough.
The GFS Ensembles show that the relatively mild autumn continues. There is a lot of sine wave patterning in the pack tonight with the mean trending above average almost throughout indicating continued mobile Westerly type weather with strong winds and rain. There seems good support for the amount of rainfall to lessen with time and this is due to the slow progression North of the Jet flow later and the proximity of High pressure to the South weakening the rain bearing fronts as they cross.
The Jet Stream is showing the UK to be a magnet for the Jet stream which relentlessly crosses the Atlantic at speeds of between 150-200mph for much of the time sending depression after depression across the Atlantic and over the UK or to the North with their attendant rain, showers and strong winds too across all areas at times. Tropical maritime air will never be far away to the South at times and will feed up into Southern Britain with milder air over all of Southern Europe bottling all the really cold air well to the North.
In Summary tonight the mild weather is set to continue for the foreseeable and will probably strengthen as SW winds in somewhat higher pressure push weather systems further North later next week. Before that happens though a very unsettled, often wet and sometimes windy spell of weather will eventually turn things rather chilly briefly early next week with plenty of rain still likely. ECM is not what cold lovers would want to see tonight as pressure becomes High just to the South then SE setting up a long fetch and very mild SW flow late next week with some rain, chiefly in the NW.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset