We're had a good summer so some interesting weather would be nice this winter whatever it decides to do.

I'd bet such people would be in the minority, given the traditional winter on here!

Last winter was essentially average overall... compared with the 71-00 CET, we had Dec +0.2C, Jan -0.3C, Feb -0.6C = 0.2C below average overall.

The winter before that was a mild one overall, although the three before that were cold. None of which makes any difference, mind you - the weather will do what it will despite what any of us want it do to!

Obviously not me

9 months of the year to see above average temps , milder weather .

Snow and Ice all the way for me

Not too sure this year will pan out that way

I don't think I will ever have enough "wintery Xmases" - after all, I wouldn't want a summery one....!!

I'd rather not have weeks and weeks of freezing cold dry air without a snowflake in sight though, so if a more mobile pattern means more chance of precipitation, I would be happy to gain a couple of degrees Celsius in exchange for a few more snowflakes (even if they don't last long!)  

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report using data supplied by the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday November 4th 2013.

All models appear in general agreement on the weather types likely to be experienced over the UK from today up until the end of the weekend. A Westerly airflow is currently re-establishing across the UK in the next 24 hours. Heralding the arrival of this is a trough that will carry rain West to East across Britain tonight and tomorrow followed by a brisk and somewhat showery Westerly flow later with the showers, heaviest towards the NW. By Wednesday a frontal wave runs East across Southern Britain with a spell of prolonged and probably heavy rain, not clearing until later. Showery weather over the North will extend to all areas through Thursday and Friday with some frequent and heavy, thundery showers in the West at times. Over the weekend models do diverge a little with most showing little let up in the brisk and unstable Westerly flow while UKMO brings a stronger ridge than we have seen for some time cross the UK from the West with a dry and bright day expected.

GFS then shows the South becoming much drier and relatively mild in a light SW flow around High pressure close to the South of the UK. The North will see more changeable weather with rain and strong winds at times. Everywhere looks like staying mild or perhaps very mild if the High remains just to the South of the UK maintaining a rather overcast but mild feed of winds from the Azores.

UKMO tonight has a High pressure ridge crossing East over the UK next Sunday with a fine and bright day for all, not unlike today. It does look like the North and West would most likely turn breezy and unsettled again to start the new week while the South and East stay largely dry if rather cloudy. It would become mild again everywhere following an overnight frost on Saturday.

GEM is much more intent on delivering continuing strong and blustery Westerly winds both North and South of the UK in relatively mild and cloudy conditions. The North would more than likely see the heaviest rainfall with rather less likely than of late over the South.

NAVGEM shows a mild Westerly flow next weekend gradually veering towards the NW late on in the weekend and the start of next week with outbreaks of rain or showers and temperatures falling a little to chillier levels with time.

ECM looks much like UKMO on Sunday with a fine and dry day following the wet weekdays and Saturday. As we move into next week the weather though changeable will become drier across Southern Britain as High pressure stays much closer by than of late. Some rain though will still make it's way SE across Northern and Eastern areas early next week with temperatures closer to average with some frost and mist patches becoming steadily more likely as the pressure rises. By the end of the run a North/South split looks like developing with mild and changeable weather in the North with rain at times in a brisk SW wind while the South sees dry and bright weather but with some fog and frost likely in places should skies stay clear.

The GFS Ensembles look a good deal better during Week 2 as High pressure stands a good chance of playing a role in the UK weather for a time. Late in the run a popular consensus looks to be for more unsettled weather to return by the end of the run. Temperatures are still showing nothing overly cold but if High pressure settles over the UK for a time light winds and clear skies could develop into a fog and frost problem.

The Jet Stream blows across the Atlantic and the UK for the coming week before signs of it becoming more undulated and more towards a position North of the UK next week are apparent.

In Summary there is a growing trend for a build of pressure behind this week's broad Westerly winds and occasional rain. The pressure build looks more influential to the weather across Southern Britain more than further North where further rain at times seems possible. In the South next week looks much drier with only limited rain events and periods of fine and dry weather with light winds when mist, fog and local frost problems at night could lower the average surface temepratures, especially by night.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thanks very much Martin, could do with a dryer period soon this part of the world ground very soggy.

Having said that the ground works nicely at the allotment.

Thanks for some local perspective.

The 12z ensembles show that it is increasingly likely that we will get in on the mild act too in due course.

https://sites.google.com/site/jcpweather/

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Yes, the signal for a surge of milder air is quite marked.

As I posted earlier, the ECM ensemble continues to signal a steady declinein temperature for London from Day 8.  By the end it looks like 'cold zonality' with highs around 7C and lows around 4C.

Good morning everyone. Here is the morning review of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday November 5th 2013.

All models continue to show a Westerly flow across the UK between High pressure well to the South and low to the North. A showery airflow covers the North and this will feel rather cold at times. In the South frontal systems continue to move East across these areas at times with more prolonged rainfall, particularly tomorrow. through Thursday and Friday the chillier showery flow over the North will extend to the South too with most showers in the West with a little sunshine in between. By the weekend a new trough looks like travelling East across all areas on Saturday with squally winds and heavy rain for a time before winds veer NW on Sunday with sunshine and showers in colder conditions to end the weekend.

GFS then leads us into next week with a warm front crossing NE over the UK on Monday introducing mild and drizzly weather following a spell of rain. A cold front follows with another band of rain but chiefly light in the South as pressure builds to the SW by midweek. this extends across Southern Britain with mist, fog and patchy frost likely for a while. By the end of next week the High slips away SE and pressure falls over the UK again with a return to unsettled weather to end the run in blustery cyclonic winds and temperatures remaining close to average.

UKMO closes it's run this morning showing the UK under a SW flow next Monday with a warm front crossing NE with a spell of rain followed by mild and muggy SW airflow with drizzle and mist over Northern and Western coasts and hills while the South and East become largely dry but cloudy and mild once the warm front rain clears late in the day.

GEM today is slightly slower to build High pressure up from the SW next week but eventually it does but not before the beginning of the week remains unsettled and breezy with occasional rain with the emphasis of this having shifted towards more Northern parts early in the week. Average temperatures look more than likely for all.

NAVGEM shows a Westerly flow maintained early next week with the polar front straddled somewhere close to Southern Britain with occasional rain and drizzle travelling East along it while the north would likely stay broadly showery in a stronger Westerly flow with more organized rainfall returning to all by the middle of next week.

ECM too shows a broad and mild SW flow over the UK early next week following a warm front East. Rain, drizzle and hill and coastal fog would affect the North and West while Southern and Eastern parts may have a drier interlude. By midweek a cold front has moved down into Southern Britain bringing some rain while the North turns brighter and colder with sunshine and showers. This front then gets hung up across Southern England with pulses of rain running West to East along it for a time. Late in the week a drier interlude in the South for a day or two with some brighter skies looks possible before pressure falls gently again with an increased risk of a return to mild Westerly winds and rainfall for all as we approach the second weekend.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a trend towards rising pressure to a mean in excess of 1020mbs over the South early next week. This in response to High pressure building up close to the South which sends the Jet stream North and allows mild SW winds to flood the UK around Low pressure well to the NW. As one would expect precipitation values are shown to fall from next week especially over Southern locations while the trend to return slightly lower pressure and increased rainfall is hinted at again towards the end of the run.

The Jet Stream forecast remains for it to pump East at high speed across the UK for the rest of this week before a temporary push North of the flow seems likely towards a position just to the NW of Scotland. However, such a push North looks like it may not last very long.

In Summary the rest of this week looks set in stone now and this includes the weekend. So all areas can expect rain at times especially across the South in the next 36 hours or so with some copious amounts possible. From Thursday showery weather seems likely with some drier spells in between before a trough at the weekend is followed by a swing of winds to a colder NW point and with  fast rising pressure better conditions will be felt in the South. The second week of output is trickier to call as some output brings High pressure up across the UK, especially the South with resultant fine weather along with mist and fog possibilities. Other models show a more muted attempt to push High pressure up instead pushing a warm and moist SW flow across Britain early next week with cloudy skies and hill and coastal fog and rain to the North and West. There is also then a trend hinted to bring more unsettled weather back to all areas late in the output. Yet again this morning there is absolutely no hope of anything remotely very cold or wintry trended or highlighted in any charts I have seen this morning.

Traanscript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Cheers as always, Martin. There doesn't seem to be too much emphasis on real stormy-type winds for a while now.

Good.

Although having that, it will still get rough at times over Northern and Western parts.

Thanks Martin.

Seems ok "ish" for Thursday...

Should keep an eye on developments on Saturday. Could be a deepening system crossing the South with the risk of severe gales in the South again for a time.

Hi all,

Here's today's weather video;

Atlantic Train Slowing Down:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Think we should get some drier weather (especially in the south) next week.

Thanks Gav

Thanks Gavin, interesting at the end of the month signs of pressure rising to the north of the UK - could end up a very varied month.

Yes as per other posters some signs especially from ECM that high pressure might begin to increase in the Atlantic and ridge north, early days yet but encouraging  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday November 5th 2013.

All models show a broad Westerly flow across the UK, mild in the South and rather cold in the North. The weather is set to remain changeable with showers over the North for the next 72hrs or so while in the South a waving front lying WNW to ESE close to Southern Britain reinvigorates tonight bringing a spell of rain East across the South later tonight and tomorrow before it finally staggers itself away to the SE with all areas seeing sunshine and showers on Thursday and Friday. Another squally Low pressure feature looks like crossing the UK on Saturday intensifying showers or rain with gusty winds before things quieten down over Saturday night as pressure rises from the SW. Through Sunday a dry and cold start will probably become replaced by thickening cloud, increasing wind and rain moving up from the SW late in the day.

GFS then shows a mild day or two before a weakening cold front moves SE over Britain with some rain and drizzle for a time on Tuesday before fresher and colder conditions with a NW breeze sets in. With pressure quite High over the UK by then some mist and fog patches will become more extensive in Southern Britain where a patchy frost must also be catered for. Later in the run as the High recedes SE more low pressure could return the UK into another spell of rain and showers with temperatures rather lower than of late.

UKMO closes it's run showing next Monday with a broad and fresh Westerly flow with very mild conditions likely for all. Dry if cloudy weather would be most likely in the South while exposed coasts and hills to the North and West of Britain see occasional rain and drizzle with sea and coastal fog. 

GEM shows a mild start to next week under a moist Westerly flow which turns slowly NW on Tuesday behind a weakening cold front which clears SE through the day with a short spell of rain and drizzle followed by colder and fresher weather with some sunshine. Through the rest of the week changeable weather looks likely with some rain at times, most of it to the North and West exposed to the Westerly aspect to the wind. Temperatures would be close to average but maybe rather cold in the North and NE at times.

NAVGEM builds High pressure up towards Southern Britain early next week with most rain becoming restricted to the North while the South sees an increased risk of overnight mist, fog and patchy frost should any clear skies develop near to High pressure over Southernmost parts by then.

ECM tonight shows a warm front crossing East over the UK with much of next week looking changeable and relatively mild as High pressure remains to the South and SW and low to the North. Occasional incursions of polar maritime NW air will interrupt the mildness at times with the risk of frost and fog in the South briefly. There will be occasional rain at times too but never overly heavy in the South. 

The GFS Ensembles offer no change to recent output with the general trend remaining for broadly average and changeable late Autumn conditions with brisk winds and rain at times.

The Jet Stream shows the flow remaining across the UK from the NW or West for the next week or so with many options shown thereafter including little change to the current positioning.

In Summary there remains little sign of anything remotely wintry from tonight's output. instead we continue to be bombarded with Westerly breezes squeezed between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. Rain or showers will continue for all until next week when a rise of pressure from the South pushes the polar vortex further to the North offering drier and mild conditions to affect the South at times although frost and fog patches overnight could mean colder temperatures by day should any fog be slow to lift. The North will never see much of this improvement with further rain at times in relatively mild temperatures and more unsettled conditions for all could return towards the end of the period.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Still a few tentative signs out in FI of a change in strength and/or location of the PV, allowing a slight re-jig of pressure patterns. Would probably allow some colder air to be pulled further south at times although not checked the 850's. Could be the first signs of a change out of the current pattern or just random FI rubbish that'll be gone tomorrow

In the reliable time frame though 'average' temps, milder incursions, some chilly stuff up North (as you'd expect by now) and wet.

Sort of reassuringly normal for November

The ECM 12z ensemble continues to show the consistent trend for a transition to cooler conditions next week.  The mean for London shows highs of 7C to 8C and lows around 4C. To day 10 the mean and the Op are in decent agreement.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Deepest FI but the LP's still keep coming

very little in the way of cold IMBY for November, I wonder if I will go the whole month without a frost

There's no sign of any proper cold weather though next week could be chilly at times with changing air masses inbetween milder spells.

Overall still looking changeable upto 10 days at least.

Good morning everyone. Here's my a.m. report on the midnight outputs from the big 5 namely GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday November 6th 2013.

All models continue to agree on the pattern of events between now and the end of the weekend. A Westerly flow lies over the UK. A weak front is straddled across the Southern half of Britain with mild, dull and drizzly weather across the South where it is very mild whereas the north sees a cleaner, fresher and colder airflow with scattered showers in the West. Through tonight and tomorrow the front in the South is shown to clear the SE with colder and fresher air over the North extending to all areas. Friday will see frequent and sometimes heavy showers and these will continue over the North on Saturday. Over the South a longer spell of rain looks like on Saturday as a squally trough crosses East through the day. Then after a chilly and dry night over the UK Sunday will see a decent if rather cold day in the North and East while cloud and drizzly rain heralds the arrival of very mild air into the SW later in the day, extending NE to all areas early next week.

GFS then shows much higher pressure values over the UK next week and beyond, especially in the South. There will be spells of very mild weather with moist SW winds, a lot of cloud and the chance of some drizzly rain interspersed by injections of colder and clearer conditions occasionally feeding down from the NW albeit temporary each time. Rainfall amounts are shown to become small in the South but still some heavy rain in the far North at times where it may also be rather windy and cold at times. Patchy overnight mist and fog may develop should clear spells occur overnight in the South too but overall daytime temperatures should recover well here.

UKMO today holds a High pressure bank from the Azores across Southern France and across to Eastern Europe with a Westerly flow over the UK. The weather would of been mild in the preceding day leading to Tuesday with a weakening cold front moving SE bringing a band of light rain through and followed by somewhat cooler and fresher air by midweek but never especially cold anywhere.

GEM also shows a weakening cold front crossing SE towards the middle of next week with fresher and cleaner air arriving across the UK when it would be windy and showery in the North. Through the rest of the run the North will see the main share of wind and rain and any colder conditions while the South stay relatively mild and breezy with just a little rain but a lot of cloud and temperatures holding well up to average of not above at times.

NAVGEM shows conditions becoming very mild over the UK for a time early next week with a moist SW flow blowing across all areas, strongest in the North where rain and drizzle is likely. With time Southern areas become misty and with any cloud breaks and the fall out of wind fog may become a big issue as High pressure moves over the top of these areas. Such conditions would bring colder daytime conditions too especially where fog fails to disperse in the mornings.

ECM shows alternating mild and rather colder conditions next week especially felt if you live in the North and East where mild SW winds alternate with cold and showery NW'lies. the effects shown are much less noticeable in the South especially as High pressure lies on the doorstep to the South or SW so here a lot of dry and benign conditions seem likely with a few bright and fresh days mixed with rather cloudy, mild and damp conditions.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing more than a gentle seasonal fall off to temperature values over the next few weeks with the mean for this run always lying close to or above the long term mean. This means of course that winds will continue to blow from a Westerly quadrant with just brief colder polar maritime incursions to Northern areas at times. Rainfall is projected to occur almost anywhere but mostly very light in parts of the South indicating High pressure South of the UK lies close by.

The Jet Stream currently roaring over the UK continues for a few more days before it ridges higher over the Atlantic and down across Europe from a position North of the UK next week. thereafter trends are inconclusive and not worth commenting on this morning due to indecision.

In Summary the weather remains generally Westerly Atlantic based for the reliable future. From a rather chilly and unsettled period for the remainder of this week and much of the weekend it looks reliably likely that High pressure is going to nudge up close to Southern Britain sending the Jet further North and allowing mild Atlantic South-westerlies to become dominant over the South while the North too sees some of this, though here colder showery and windy conditions will interject at times. The key question is the final resting place of any rise of pressure to the South. If High pressure makes landfall over Southern Britain then the incidence of fog and frost here increases dramatically with much colder conditions developing near the surface. If it stays to the South then cloudy, benign, mild and damp conditions would remain more likely at times. As it stands currently until we lose High pressure from any point South of the UK there seems little likelihood of any substantial cold weather anywhere over the UK and as the charts stand this morning that looks unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Plenty of cold air in the north of the UK at the moment:

http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe