Good morning everyone. Here's my a.m. report on the midnight outputs from the big 5 namely GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday November 6th 2013.
All models continue to agree on the pattern of events between now and the end of the weekend. A Westerly flow lies over the UK. A weak front is straddled across the Southern half of Britain with mild, dull and drizzly weather across the South where it is very mild whereas the north sees a cleaner, fresher and colder airflow with scattered showers in the West. Through tonight and tomorrow the front in the South is shown to clear the SE with colder and fresher air over the North extending to all areas. Friday will see frequent and sometimes heavy showers and these will continue over the North on Saturday. Over the South a longer spell of rain looks like on Saturday as a squally trough crosses East through the day. Then after a chilly and dry night over the UK Sunday will see a decent if rather cold day in the North and East while cloud and drizzly rain heralds the arrival of very mild air into the SW later in the day, extending NE to all areas early next week.
GFS then shows much higher pressure values over the UK next week and beyond, especially in the South. There will be spells of very mild weather with moist SW winds, a lot of cloud and the chance of some drizzly rain interspersed by injections of colder and clearer conditions occasionally feeding down from the NW albeit temporary each time. Rainfall amounts are shown to become small in the South but still some heavy rain in the far North at times where it may also be rather windy and cold at times. Patchy overnight mist and fog may develop should clear spells occur overnight in the South too but overall daytime temperatures should recover well here.
UKMO today holds a High pressure bank from the Azores across Southern France and across to Eastern Europe with a Westerly flow over the UK. The weather would of been mild in the preceding day leading to Tuesday with a weakening cold front moving SE bringing a band of light rain through and followed by somewhat cooler and fresher air by midweek but never especially cold anywhere.
GEM also shows a weakening cold front crossing SE towards the middle of next week with fresher and cleaner air arriving across the UK when it would be windy and showery in the North. Through the rest of the run the North will see the main share of wind and rain and any colder conditions while the South stay relatively mild and breezy with just a little rain but a lot of cloud and temperatures holding well up to average of not above at times.
NAVGEM shows conditions becoming very mild over the UK for a time early next week with a moist SW flow blowing across all areas, strongest in the North where rain and drizzle is likely. With time Southern areas become misty and with any cloud breaks and the fall out of wind fog may become a big issue as High pressure moves over the top of these areas. Such conditions would bring colder daytime conditions too especially where fog fails to disperse in the mornings.
ECM shows alternating mild and rather colder conditions next week especially felt if you live in the North and East where mild SW winds alternate with cold and showery NW'lies. the effects shown are much less noticeable in the South especially as High pressure lies on the doorstep to the South or SW so here a lot of dry and benign conditions seem likely with a few bright and fresh days mixed with rather cloudy, mild and damp conditions.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing more than a gentle seasonal fall off to temperature values over the next few weeks with the mean for this run always lying close to or above the long term mean. This means of course that winds will continue to blow from a Westerly quadrant with just brief colder polar maritime incursions to Northern areas at times. Rainfall is projected to occur almost anywhere but mostly very light in parts of the South indicating High pressure South of the UK lies close by.
The Jet Stream currently roaring over the UK continues for a few more days before it ridges higher over the Atlantic and down across Europe from a position North of the UK next week. thereafter trends are inconclusive and not worth commenting on this morning due to indecision.
In Summary the weather remains generally Westerly Atlantic based for the reliable future. From a rather chilly and unsettled period for the remainder of this week and much of the weekend it looks reliably likely that High pressure is going to nudge up close to Southern Britain sending the Jet further North and allowing mild Atlantic South-westerlies to become dominant over the South while the North too sees some of this, though here colder showery and windy conditions will interject at times. The key question is the final resting place of any rise of pressure to the South. If High pressure makes landfall over Southern Britain then the incidence of fog and frost here increases dramatically with much colder conditions developing near the surface. If it stays to the South then cloudy, benign, mild and damp conditions would remain more likely at times. As it stands currently until we lose High pressure from any point South of the UK there seems little likelihood of any substantial cold weather anywhere over the UK and as the charts stand this morning that looks unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset