Good morning. Here is this morning's take from me on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday November 14th 2013.
All models are agreed that the weather between now and early next week will be changeable with average temperatures in winds between West and North. Today sees a rather chilly NW flow with sunny spells and scattered showers, these chiefly over the North and East and early in the day. A ridge crosses the UK tonight killing off any remaining showers and clear skies will result in a patchy frost. Milder air will be crossing the Northern periphery of a High pressure area to the SW and Friday and Saturday will become rather cloudy and benign as a result. By Sunday a front moving slowly down from the North will bring patchy rain through the day with Monday seeing another one. However, this second one on Monday will usher in much colder air behind it with winds swing Northerly with sunshine and showers developing with some snowfall on hills in the North and more widespread frost than of late overnight and inland.
GFS then intensifies the cold next week as winds veer NE in response to a pressure build to the NW. The result will be a North/South split developing with the North seeing very cold and frosty weather under clear skies while Southern areas close to Low pressure over NW Europe stay cloudy and cold with rain or sleet at times and snow over the hills. The pattern remains similar for the rest of the run with Southern areas likely to continue to see very unsettled and rather cold weather with rain at times while the North see the best of any drier spells. Late in the run drier weather is shown to extend to many areas as High pressure settles over Northern and Eastern Britain.
UKMO today closes it's run with a showery and chilly NW airflow on Tuesday veering to an even colder NE'ly on Wednesday. A mix of sunshine and showers are likely especially near Western and later Eastern coasts and these could be wintry on the hills generally and perhaps to lower elevations for a time in the North. The NW shows signs of settling down soon after the term of the run.
GEM today shows a North/South split developing next week. The early days will see northerly winds and wintry showers giving way to cloudier skies across the South with rain or sleet at times while the North tuns steadily more settled but with frost and fog problems becoming widespread with time.
NAVGEM shows a North then NE flow next week too with some rain, sleet or wet snow over the hills of the South while Northern regions slowly become less settled as High pressure tries to build in from off the Atlantic. It would be generally cold over all areas through the week.
ECM today quickly removes a cold North then NE flow away from the UK as we move through next week quickly shifting the emphasis away from wintry showers into one of cold and quiet weather with widespread frost and fog problems as the week moves on and into next weekend.
The GFS Ensembles show a much tighter pack this morning well supportive of a colder spell next week before the trend to lessen it's grip over the UK is shown though never becoming mild. Rain at times is as usual shown scattered through the run today and some of this will no doubt fall as snow at times over higher ground, especially in the North. The operational run was a warmer outlier in it's later stages.
The Jet Stream is show to be ridging High over the Atlantic and across Iceland at the moment. Through the coming days this sinks steadily South on it's current trajectory before turning directly North to South over the UK early next week to eventually set up a much more Southerly position in a week or so time.
In Summary today a colder spell is still looking very much on the cards. The general theme appears to be a few days of Northerly winds with wintry showers to be followed by a swing of winds to the NE as pressure builds to the NW of the UK. This would change the distribution of precipitation towards the South and East while Northern and Western areas become dry, cold and possibly frosty and foggy. However, through my years of experience ECM this morning has come up with the most likely prognosis that I think will more likely happen as High pressure builds across the UK following the Northerly and bring a nationwide cold and foggy period, something I hinted at last night. having said that the majority of output this morning does not show this so the colder and more wintry solutions do hold some credibility currently.
The one word of caution I would use though for those salivating over these wintry synoptics is not to expect too much especially if you live on low ground and in the South. Sea surface temperatures are still relatively high and we are surrounded by them. As a result any precipitation that occurs is likely to be of the watery variety despite cold enough uppers for snow (see link below). The air at sea level will warm surface air sufficiently for this and also given that we are still only in mid November we could of done with these synoptics in January and February rather than now as I feel there is a good chance that they could be wasted on delivering rain and sleet rather than what many want.
http://www.thebeachguide.co.uk/sea-temperature
Edited by user
Thursday, November 14, 2013 8:39:31 AM
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset