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White Meadows
Thursday, November 14, 2013 9:15:37 PM


Without ramping this up unnecessarily, ...It is [good] to see that many members on here are grounded and are viewing this unfolding situation with balanced views. 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Is it going to snow in Carlisle


 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Michael Beattie?...... Is that you???!!!!!!
David M Porter
Thursday, November 14, 2013 9:19:26 PM




I'm a bit worried seeing such charts so early. I'd rather they came around in a month or so - a snowbound lead-up to Xmas again would be fantastic.


Of course, we could get a repeating pattern of northern blocking as we've seen often in recent years, but I think that's a long shot.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I have always thought this sort of set up in November is wasted but after the weeks of mild weather I am only too pleased to be seeing it.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


I'd be happy with a mild & wet November (and first half of December) if we could just get a snowmageddon second half of December.


 


As it is, the pattern of northern blocking doesn't (IMVHO) look that stable.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


That's how November & December 2009 panned out IIRC. November was mild but very wet with it with some serious flooding in places especially Cumbria, and the start of December wasn't a great deal different. The change to colder weather started during the second week of Dec here when we had a few rather cold & foggy days, but the start of the real wintry stuff didn't come until around 18th December if my memory serves me well. What followed was easily to the most prolonged spell of severe winter weather I had seen at that time, but few people could have imagined there would be a repeat less than a year later.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
Thursday, November 14, 2013 9:28:57 PM
The output seems to get more and more interesting with each passing run. Uppers seem to have been upgraded from what I saw this morning. Not enough to get me interested yet but it will be nice to see a long run of cold days and nights
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
polarwind
Thursday, November 14, 2013 9:45:14 PM



I'm a bit worried seeing such charts so early. I'd rather they came around in a month or so - a snowbound lead-up to Xmas again would be fantastic.


Of course, we could get a repeating pattern of northern blocking as we've seen often in recent years, but I think that's a long shot.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I have always thought this sort of set up in November is wasted but after the weeks of mild weather I am only too pleased to be seeing it.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I think we are now entering a different circulation regime (because of the changing and now mostly quiet sun) and what has been experienced for the last several decades isn't something that will act as a guide.

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Dave,Derby
moomin75
Thursday, November 14, 2013 9:47:54 PM



I'm a bit worried seeing such charts so early. I'd rather they came around in a month or so - a snowbound lead-up to Xmas again would be fantastic.


Of course, we could get a repeating pattern of northern blocking as we've seen often in recent years, but I think that's a long shot.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I have always thought this sort of set up in November is wasted but after the weeks of mild weather I am only too pleased to be seeing it.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

In recent years though Marcus, patterns have tended to repeat themselves. To get something this early would be exceptional (but not unprecedented), but I believe would possibly set us up for the winter ahead.


I don't buy in to "using up synoptics" and never have. What will be will be.


And that's as close to a ramp as you will get from me!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Essan
Thursday, November 14, 2013 9:52:00 PM

Seems to me that most years either it doesn't get cold till Christmas, or Spring arrives in February.   Obviously some exceptions.

But I wonder, just as tropical cyclones are becoming less frequent but more intense, maybe our winters are becoming shorter but more intense?   3 months of winter squeezed up into 6 weeks?   2010/11 being a good example? 

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Snowfan
Thursday, November 14, 2013 9:52:43 PM




I'm a bit worried seeing such charts so early. I'd rather they came around in a month or so - a snowbound lead-up to Xmas again would be fantastic.


Of course, we could get a repeating pattern of northern blocking as we've seen often in recent years, but I think that's a long shot.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I have always thought this sort of set up in November is wasted but after the weeks of mild weather I am only too pleased to be seeing it.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

In recent years though Marcus, patterns have tended to repeat themselves. To get something this early would be exceptional (but not unprecedented), but I believe would possibly set us up for the winter ahead.


I don't buy in to "using up synoptics" and never have. What will be will be.


And that's as close to a ramp as you will get from me!


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I agree, I have always felt that once the first snow comes, it's much easier to get further snowfalls throughout the winter, and I have seen this proven true (although not sure why).

"Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow! "
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White Meadows
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:04:46 PM
Jeez......

Rewind the clock a week and output was nothing but zonal and had been for weeks on end. Now we have a fascinating pattern possibly setting up and some are moaning about poor timing. Of course it would be colder a month later but remember 2010 set up only 1/2 weeks later into winter.

The days get longer in 37 days... Better at the end of November than end of March IMO...
ITSY
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:20:34 PM

MUCH better angle of attack coming from NNE on 18Z by 162. Watch it...

Gooner
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:21:34 PM

Jeez......

Rewind the clock a week and output was nothing but zonal and had been for weeks on end. Now we have a fascinating pattern possibly setting up and some are moaning about poor timing. Of course it would be colder a month later but remember 2010 set up only 1/2 weeks later into winter.

The days get longer in 37 days... Better at the end of November than end of March IMO...

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Not moaning , just stating that you are more likely to tap into some real cold in mid December than you are Mid November, as I added still happy with what is coming along considering all the high temps of late

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:24:49 PM

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/11/14/basis18/ukuk/rart/13111918_2_1418.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png


LP moves South bringing Snow in places

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:29:11 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png


Baking the further S and E you are

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:30:21 PM
Very cold Midlands into Wales in a weeks time.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png 
moomin75
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:31:55 PM

18z is not far away from the perfect, fabled "Murr Sausage".....


Getting "mildy" interested now.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Phil G
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:32:02 PM
Also very cold South Wales in the snowfield. Temps below freezing midday Brrrrr.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18617.png 
Gooner
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:32:06 PM

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/11/14/basis18/ukuk/rart/13112006_2_1418.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.png


A few areas will get to see snow falling when they awake , enough to settle????

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:35:46 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png


At this point on the 12z we had a Northerly flow

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:38:53 PM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111418/gfsnh-1-300.png?18


Quite different from the previous , all the cold air which was over Europe as gone

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:40:27 PM


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111418/gfsnh-1-300.png?18


Quite different from the previous , all the cold air which was over Europe as gone


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Well that's it then...winter is over!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:43:19 PM



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111418/gfsnh-1-300.png?18


Quite different from the previous , all the cold air which was over Europe as gone


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Well that's it then...winter is over!


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



I should add , but will be back tomorrow

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:48:24 PM




http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111418/gfsnh-1-300.png?18


Quite different from the previous , all the cold air which was over Europe as gone


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Well that's it then...winter is over!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I should add , but will be back tomorrow


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Haha...good addition.....


Just got to add this (just for Matty H)....this is my favourite snow video on Youtube...Always watch it when I want to get into snow mood...and all in sunny old Bristol.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spJIrFQZWu8

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Chiltern Blizzard
Thursday, November 14, 2013 10:52:27 PM


I'm a bit worried seeing such charts so early. I'd rather they came around in a month or so - a snowbound lead-up to Xmas again would be fantastic.


Of course, we could get a repeating pattern of northern blocking as we've seen often in recent years, but I think that's a long shot.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


But in 2010 we had charts similar to this at this point... AND we had a snowbound Christmas!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Chiltern Blizzard
Thursday, November 14, 2013 11:00:40 PM


Seems to me that most years either it doesn't get cold till Christmas, or Spring arrives in February.   Obviously some exceptions.

But I wonder, just as tropical cyclones are becoming less frequent but more intense, maybe our winters are becoming shorter but more intense?   3 months of winter squeezed up into 6 weeks?   2010/11 being a good example? 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


I don't think the evidence supports this....  We have plenty of variability in terms of the length and intensity of our seasons.  Yes, 2010/11 had a cold first half, and a mild second half..... but just one year before, 2009/10 was cold throughout (100+ consecutive days without double digits for much of the country), and especially up north (In Scotland I believe all 3 winter months in Scotland were sub 1c, and was within a whisker of being colder then 1962/63). 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Chiltern Blizzard
Thursday, November 14, 2013 11:11:10 PM





http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111418/gfsnh-1-300.png?18


Quite different from the previous , all the cold air which was over Europe as gone


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Well that's it then...winter is over!


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



I should add , but will be back tomorrow


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Haha...good addition.....


Just got to add this (just for Matty H)....this is my favourite snow video on Youtube...Always watch it when I want to get into snow mood...and all in sunny old Bristol.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spJIrFQZWu8


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Forget that - Check out this one!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poQZxuH8l5g 


 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
moomin75
Thursday, November 14, 2013 11:16:14 PM

Briefly (off topic apologies), check out the drivel on BBC1 Question Time right NOW....


Some dullard in the audience asked whether Typhoon Haiyan is because of man made climate change and the dullard politicians (apart from Nigel Lawson), said yes it is.


Frustrates the hell out of me. Lord Lawson had it right though!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
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