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ARTzeman
Sunday, November 17, 2013 12:11:56 PM

Met Office   ICE Warnings out for Monday    N.West ....   Western side For  Tuesday,,,,but NOT for S.West....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Whether Idle
Sunday, November 17, 2013 12:18:38 PM

A bone of contention, sufficient to prompt  comment in this thread about how "normal/seasonal" the charts are looking, has caught my attention. 


I turned to my Met Office Book of the British Weather, which is an atlas of the 1971-2000 mapped averages by month, season and year.  It is a must-have for any model watcher who wants to opine about what constitutes "average" or "seasonal" conditions.


It shows that falling snow in November in autumn is rare (well less than 5 days per autumn as a mean.)  The mode for much of southern UK away from the northern Pennines and the Northern half of Scotland would be zero (no) days of falling snow in November, the median over a 30 year period would be no more than 1 day, probably less.


This then turned my attention to the potential of this week.  IF there is falling snow (let alone laying snow) outside of the aforementioned upland areas, then in my reserached opinion, this would NOT constitute "average" or seasonal conditions.


By the standards of the mapped averages, and calculations that can be deduced from them, any falling snow that does occur this month in lowland southern UK would represent a somewhat rare occurrance, and would therefore not be seasonal as it would clearly be unrepresentative of the average for autumn.


By way of balance, I would add that any snow that does fall in November almost always falls in the latter third and there was IIRC a Buchan cold spell in this part of the month.


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Stormchaser
Sunday, November 17, 2013 12:41:32 PM

Thanks for those stats WI, an interesting read 




The models are struggling to resolve an elongation of the PV that brings the possibility of a split for a time at least. It does look like at least some energy will end up to our NW, which means that if we do see some more resilliant high latitude blocking it's more likely to take hold to our N and NE rather than around Greenland.


GFS just regroups the PV to our NW and ramps it up considerably. While this is far from unrealistic, the fact that it's most agressive in piling energy NE in 5-6 days time does give cause for scepticism.


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
NickR
Sunday, November 17, 2013 12:42:50 PM


A bone of contention, sufficient to prompt  comment in this thread about how "normal/seasonal" the charts are looking, has caught my attention. 


I turned to my Met Office Book of the British Weather, which is an atlas of the 1971-2000 mapped averages by month, season and year.  It is a must-have for any model watcher who wants to opine about what constitutes "average" or "seasonal" conditions.


It shows that falling snow in November in autumn is rare (well less than 5 days per autumn as a mean.)  The mode for much of southern UK away from the northern Pennines and the Northern half of Scotland would be zero (no) days of falling snow in November, the median over a 30 year period would be no more than 1 day, probably less.


This then turned my attention to the potential of this week.  IF there is falling snow (let alone laying snow) outside of the aforementioned upland areas, then in my reserached opinion, this would NOT constitute "average" or seasonal conditions.


By the standards of the mapped averages, and calculations that can be deduced from them, any falling snow that does occur this month in lowland southern UK would represent a somewhat rare occurrance, and would therefore not be seasonal as it would clearly be unrepresentative of the average for autumn.


By way of balance, I would add that any snow that does fall in November almost always falls in the latter third and there was IIRC a Buchan cold spell in this part of the month.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


So: statistics show that falling snow is rare in those areas. Therefore, if snow falls, it will not be "average" conditions.


Just as well the internet means you don't get to use paper and waste trees! 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Sunday, November 17, 2013 12:46:49 PM

Some pessimism around this morning but the latest ECM is a great run and with Means like the one below we should be very optimistic about a prolonged cold spell and with a bit of luck some snow.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html


 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Very optimistic? Misleading again in my opinion.

You have to take a range of output into account. Dismissing a model because you feel it plays catchup isn't helpful to the discussion. A few days ago you were forecasting November 2010 [sn_smile]
Gusty
Sunday, November 17, 2013 1:17:17 PM


A bone of contention, sufficient to prompt  comment in this thread about how "normal/seasonal" the charts are looking, has caught my attention. 


I turned to my Met Office Book of the British Weather, which is an atlas of the 1971-2000 mapped averages by month, season and year.  It is a must-have for any model watcher who wants to opine about what constitutes "average" or "seasonal" conditions.


It shows that falling snow in November in autumn is rare (well less than 5 days per autumn as a mean.)  The mode for much of southern UK away from the northern Pennines and the Northern half of Scotland would be zero (no) days of falling snow in November, the median over a 30 year period would be no more than 1 day, probably less.


This then turned my attention to the potential of this week.  IF there is falling snow (let alone laying snow) outside of the aforementioned upland areas, then in my reserached opinion, this would NOT constitute "average" or seasonal conditions.


By the standards of the mapped averages, and calculations that can be deduced from them, any falling snow that does occur this month in lowland southern UK would represent a somewhat rare occurrance, and would therefore not be seasonal as it would clearly be unrepresentative of the average for autumn.


By way of balance, I would add that any snow that does fall in November almost always falls in the latter third and there was IIRC a Buchan cold spell in this part of the month.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


2 excellent posts today WI. Thanks for this. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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doctormog
Sunday, November 17, 2013 1:55:09 PM
WI, I think (although I may be wrong) that Nick was imply summarising your post, albeit in a tongue in cheek "you could have used fewer words" sort of way.

Your post is valid and well-researched IMO. :)

I think this situation is very early in the season with no current wintry weather about which is why things are quiet. As there is no clear sign of nationwide wintry conditions of note things may remain a little subdued.

As ever the 12z runs will clarify things a bit and I would expect more changes in the medium term. Before then snow still looks a possibility for some northern (and higher) parts in the coming week. Temperatures look a bit below average overall and the risk of something more protracted in terms of chilly and probably anticyclonic conditions remains.
Polar Low
Sunday, November 17, 2013 2:37:45 PM

I also do like ecm it has a nice negative tilt earlier on and it has lots of promise later on the modeling of the pole on the last chart looking very good.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&archive=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0


it looks that way on my projector anyway


 



Some of us were worried that Europe was still to warm for a proper cold spell to develop but look how cold it gets on the latest ECM. It really wouldnt take much for the UK to get a properly cold spell (-10uppers) from an easterly or north easterly with the current synoptics.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm242.html


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Steve Murr
Sunday, November 17, 2013 2:39:36 PM

November sleet/snow falling mapped averages 1961/1990 - probs knock a day off those for 1990-2010 mean ave-


 


http://imageshack.us/a/img443/1579/h3t.gif


 


S

Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, November 17, 2013 2:58:44 PM


Some pessimism around this morning but the latest ECM is a great run and with Means like the one below we should be very optimistic about a prolonged cold spell and with a bit of luck some snow.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html


 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Very optimistic? Misleading again in my opinion.

You have to take a range of output into account. Dismissing a model because you feel it plays catchup isn't helpful to the discussion. A few days ago you were forecasting November 2010 Smile

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Not sure i ever forecast a repeat of Nov/Dec 2010 but some of the charts and the Russian heatwave did remind me of the build up to it. I am still optimistic of a good cold spell in the next 2 or 3 weeks.


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
glenogle
Sunday, November 17, 2013 3:35:28 PM


November sleet/snow falling mapped averages 1961/1990 - probs knock a day off those for 1990-2010 mean ave-


 


http://imageshack.us/a/img443/1579/h3t.gif


 


S


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Presumably they include sleet so as to avoid the "it snowed, not it never, it was sleet" arguments   However, that may make november look "snowier" than it normally is.


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
roger63
Sunday, November 17, 2013 3:46:13 PM

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Dec 2013 to Monday 16 Dec 2013:


Current indications are that high pressure will tend to transfer southwards, gradually bringing more unsettled conditions to the north of the UK. This suggests that southern and eastern parts may have more settled conditions, with drier weather and an increased risk of overnight frosts. In terms of temperature, it is likely to remain on the colder side of normal in the south but there are signs of a slight recovery nearer to normal by the middle of December.


Updated: 1205 on Sun 17 Nov 2013


Latest METO forecast for longer term.

Gooner
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:14:14 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png


A damn good frost for the higher parts of Scotland


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:30:37 PM

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111712/UN96-21.GIF?17-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111712/UN120-21.GIF?17-17


UKMO at 96 and 120


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:32:43 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png


Could really do with the HP shooting straight up across Greenland


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.png


Chilly and dry for most


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:37:54 PM

 Ive given over hours...days...weeks of my life to TWO over the past decade...since my old Man of Kent Days and my subsequent transmogrification into Whether Idle.  I will continue to write some long words and even some paragraphs now and then. 


But its time to move on.  The weather ismost  important, and its even more important to speculate on what might happen!


 


Not a bad chart:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:40:04 PM


 Ive given over hours...days...weeks of my life to TWO over the past decade...since my old Man of Kent Days and my subsequent transmogrification into Whether Idle.  I will continue to write some long words and even some paragraphs now and then. 


But its time to move on.  The weather ismost  important, and its even more important to speculate on what might happen!


 


Not a bad chart:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


It isn't a bad chart at all and is probably about as far ahead as one can look with a bit of confidence


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:42:38 PM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111712/gfsnh-0-324.png?12


HP stays very much in charge


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:43:52 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png


With HP fully in charge temps should start to lower over time


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28817.png


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:54:44 PM

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111712/UN144-21.GIF?17-17


UKMO 144 has a HP bang over the top of the UK


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


SEMerc
Sunday, November 17, 2013 5:11:07 PM


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111712/UN144-21.GIF?17-17


UKMO 144 has a HP bang over the top of the UK


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yep, I'd be a lot more interested were the high a few hundred miles further north.


GFS, meanwhile resorts to the (almost) default option of shunting any cold air down towards Greece.

Charmhills
Sunday, November 17, 2013 5:18:39 PM



http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111712/UN144-21.GIF?17-17


UKMO 144 has a HP bang over the top of the UK


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Yep, I'd be a lot more interested were the high a few hundred miles further north.


GFS, meanwhile resorts to the (almost) default option of shunting any cold air down towards Greece.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, the GFS 12z is uninspiring with a mid Atlantic high and a risk of mild, cloudy murk coming round on its backside.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Essan
Sunday, November 17, 2013 5:28:43 PM




http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111712/UN144-21.GIF?17-17


UKMO 144 has a HP bang over the top of the UK


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Yep, I'd be a lot more interested were the high a few hundred miles further north.


GFS, meanwhile resorts to the (almost) default option of shunting any cold air down towards Greece.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Yes, the GFS 12z is uninspiring with a mid Atlantic high and a risk of mild, cloudy murk coming round on its backside.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



GFS is as likely to be correct as if it were showing snowmaggedon across England ..... 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Whether Idle
Sunday, November 17, 2013 5:33:29 PM


 


Yep, I'd be a lot more interested were the high a few hundred miles further north.


 


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Try this from NAVGEM


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0


or this from GEM


 


 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=0&carte=0


Theres than the GFS about


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
SEMerc
Sunday, November 17, 2013 5:41:46 PM



 


Yep, I'd be a lot more interested were the high a few hundred miles further north.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Try this from NAVGEM


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0


or this from GEM


 


 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=0&carte=0


Theres than the GFS about


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


I'll go for GEM - I can deal with that.

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