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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0
On 12h GFS turning point seems to be around 180h.A hint that HP might set up over Scandinavia but instead it shifts into Atlantic by 240h
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0
Yep, I'd be a lot more interested were the high a few hundred miles further north.
Originally Posted by: SEMerc
Try this from NAVGEM
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0
or this from GEM
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=0&carte=0
Theres than the GFS about
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
I'll go for GEM - I can deal with that.
A reasonable possibility, but one which cannot see to develop cold uppers over the continent. I think there is some attempts at blocking of some description, but its half hearted. I never see anything that could really establish deep cold over the UK. These scenarios can change pretty quickly though, and as I have said; its rare that a greenie sets up on the first attempt. A merger with the western part of the midatlantic and a second attempt seems a very real possibility to me, and the models are half heartadely suggesting it.
Slightly off-topic here but it has been bugging me for a while. Does anyone else using Safari (on the iPad) find Meteociel web pages very slow to load?
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Originally Posted by: roger63
to be honest, it looks like a brilliant forecast spell of weather after all the zonal muck. I honestly don't care if it isn't a snowfest - some clear, dry and frosty weather would suit me fine.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-72.GIF?17-0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-96.GIF?17-0
ECM out to 96
Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum
Me too MM , couldn't agree more, it is a refreshing change
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
What's the ECM up to...?
Charts like that , I intepret that as the model saying "I haven't got a clue". Bits of low and high pressure messily deposited seemingly randomly. I would expect that either, this will turn into a greenland high, or end up with the HP collapsing over the UK. This in between scenario, though, is not realistic imo.
Certainly radically different from midnight's T+168, that's for sure.
T+144 is my guess
OK, so the low looks like filling and normal service is resumed?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-168.GIF?17-0
VERTICAL - ALMOST the same as nov 2010
close to something very good
hmm..interesting developments around Iceland - could end up tasty or a HP fest over UK
This is the view from Tokyo
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1
I can't get too excited by this yet, based on that 144h chart, which clearly isn't realistic (imo). I think the GFS scenario of a collapsing UK high is just as probable as the ECM. Still the NAVGEM agrees with the ECM so....
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH0-192.GIF?17-0
The cold air floods back South
Originally Posted by: Gooner
You certainly expect some snow in the Shitlands with that chart.
216 FWIW should be a classic, or not....
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-216.GIF?17-0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH0-216.GIF?17-0
The cold theme continues
Pure FI, purely academic, but 240 must be a cold shot with a trigger low to south and northern blocking??
and here it is...http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0
more runs are needed
You certainly expect some snow in the Shetlands with that chart.
Tidied.