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its out but poor.
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
This place cracks me up sometimes LOL
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111812/gfsnh-0-240.png?12
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Thats one hell of a northerly setting itself up. Perhaps GFS isnt so crazy afTer all though.
CHRIS FAWKES MET OFFICE TWITTER
Temperatures plummet Tue - Thurs before recovering but probably still bit below normal rest of November. Another cold plunge first half Dec?
Originally Posted by: Zubzero
Wouldn't surprise me - long way out but some of the modelling of the NH atmosphere layers may be pointing in that direction. No indication that this longitude will benefit directly but it all helps going forward.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Me too , I think the output is quite decent
Scotland stay well below average for quite some time
very intresting that gfs control run how it plays the joker between the two to our s/west
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1
ECM is being consistent - builds heights towards Greenland and slides the LPs underneath, leading to a prolonged cold spell.
ECM 144 is ominous. Smart says its correct.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111812/ECH1-120.GIF?18-0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111812/ECH1-144.GIF?18-0
ECM so far , not bad
HP sinking ??
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111812/ECH1-168.GIF?18-0
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Yup, looks that way. It was ominous at 144 and a sinker at 168, probably at 240 not dissimilar to the GFS solution.
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Eh? Wot? It's not sinking between 144 and 168...
Look west and you'll see the next upper ridge is surging northwards.
Originally Posted by: Retron
Sorry, I read it wrong, dont like NH charts.
I think it's great (if you like cold) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111812/ECH1-96.GIF?18-0
Very nice ECM @ 96H ... Poor to me is raging zonality with no end in site. Cold with forst and fog @ 168 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111812/ECH1-168.GIF?18-0
Going on the pattern we had for much of last winter, I would be looking for darting LPs linking up with the LP over the Med. Happened time and time again last year, PLUS - those setups were poorly handled by the charts, and were forecasted gradually closer to the event.
(hope that makes sens :S)
wouldn't be surprised to see a similar setup - even if its not showing on the charts at the moment, the ingredients are there. Just need the HP over the north of the UK to nudge that little bit further north... which given the timescales in the forecast - we know theres sufficience wiggle room to be had.
Roll on the 00hz
Plays the joker like the gfs control run I posted earlier with energy slipping between the 2.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1
ecm
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&archive=0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0
A long way from mundane. A 1040mb Scandi High in ECM FI
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 A long way from mundane. A 1040mb Scandi High in ECM FI
Very cold air to our east
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=1&archive=0
Europe very much in the freezer another good run and wouldnt take much for the UK to have a proper cold spell even this early in the season.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html
Great, so the ECM has left the party now :(
